CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

22 Conflict Barometer 2008
sus at the Roki and Mamisoni passes, border crossing
points with Georgia. In the wake of increasing hostilities
in South Ossetia [→ Georgia (South Ossetia)], Russia
warned of an imminent large-scale conflict in which
it would not stand on the sidelines early in August. On
August 7, Georgia launched a military operation to recover
South Ossetia. Barracks of Russian peacekeepers
in Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, were hit
when Georgia shelled the town, killing ten peacekeepers.
Russia threatened retaliation and announced measures
to protect Russian citizens in the region. In the
early hours of August 8, Russian army units crossed
the border to South Ossetia. Subsequently, Russia
launched massive air strikes all over Georgian territory,
mainly targeting military installations but also hitting the
Georgian town of Gori. Russian ground forces pushed
Georgian troops out of South Ossetia on August 9 and
10, and supported Abkhaz militia in driving the Georgian
army out of the upper Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia.
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet blockaded Georgia’s maritime
borders. Its troops then advanced from Abkhazia and
South Ossetia deep into Georgian territory, destroying
military hardware and ammunition, and setting up buffer
zones around South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The brief
war left 370 Georgians, both troops and civilians, as well
as approx. 80 Russian soldiers dead. 8,000 ethnic Georgians
were estimated to have been permanently displaced
from Russian-occupied areas outside Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. The French EU Presidency mediated
a ceasefire accord on August 12. Russia withdrew
its troops from the buffer zones following the EU’s deployment
of a civilian monitoring mission (EUMM) with
200 observers to these areas early in October. However,
Georgia continued to demand a pull-back of all Russian
troops to the lines held prior to August 7, in accordance
with the Six-Point Ceasefire Agreement. Russia claimed
the parts of the agreement relating to troop withdrawal
no longer applied following its recognition of the independence
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia late in August.
Russia signed treaties of cooperation and friendship with
both republics foreseeing the establishment of a permanent
Russian military presence there. On October 15,
talks in Geneva brokered by the UN, EU, and OSCE to
mediate between Georgia and Russia foundered over
the unresolved question of Abkhaz and South Ossetian
participation in the negotiations. However, informal talks
took place on November 19. The format was to be continued
on a monthly basis. On November 23, in a continuation
of the mutual propaganda warfare, Georgia accused
Russian troops of firing on a convoy carrying the
Georgian and Polish presidents on a fact-finding mission
at a checkpoint near Akhalgori. Russia denied the
allegation, and claimed the incident was a provocation
staged by Georgia. (mak)
Russia - Ukraine
Intensity: 2 Change: Start: 2003
Conflict parties: Russia vs. Ukraine
Conflict items: territory, international power, resources
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued.
From March 3 to 5, as threatened in February, the Russian
state-run gas monopolist Gazprom reduced gas exports
to Ukraine until the latter agreed to pay its debts.
On June 6, new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
reiterated threats of ”serious consequences” if Ukraine
continued to strive for NATO membership [→ USA - Russia
(missile system)]. On June 20, the Russian foreign
ministry demanded a halt to Ukraine’s exploitation
of oil and gas on the Black Sea Shelf, an area whose
legal status was contested between the conflict parties.
In September, the Russian foreign ministry criticized
Ukraine’s pro-Georgian stance on the Russian-
Georgian conflict [→ Russia - Georgia] and threatened
to cancel the Russian-Ukrainian friendship treaty. Because
of the Russian engagement in Georgia, Ukrainian
President Viktor Yushchenko boycotted a meeting of the
Commonwealth of Independent States in October. Later
that month, Ukraine announced it would not renew the
lease contract of the Russian naval base in Sevastopol
after 2017. Russia, however, expressed its interest in
renewing the contract. On November 1, the Ukrainian
national broadcasting commission took some Russian
TV channels off Ukrainian airwaves. Russia’s Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov demanded the rights of Ukraine’s
Russian-speaking population to be respected. Ukrainian
Defense Minister Yuri Yekhanurov on November 26 announced
plans to deploy additional air force and air defense
units towards the Russian border to be prepared
for Russian military operations like those against Georgia.
(mag)
Serbia (Kosovo)
Intensity: 3 Change: Start: 1989
Conflict parties: Kosovo Albanians vs. central government
Conflict items: secession
The conflict between the Albanian majority in Kosovo
and the Serbian government over the status of the
province gained new momentum after Kosovo’s unilaterally
declared independence. In late November 2007,
UN-hosted talks between the Serbian government and
the Kosovo authorities had failed to resolve their dispute.
From January on, Kosovo increasingly pushed for
independence, while Serbia repeatedly objected. Serbia
and UN Security Council (UNSC) veto power Russia
warned against the precedent-setting character of
an international recognition of Kosovo against international
law. Kosovo’s declaration of independence on
February 17 was followed by riots of more than thousand
Serbs in Serbia’s capital, Belgrade, and the Kosovo Serb
stronghold of Kosovska Mitrovica. In Mitrovica, rioters
threw hand grenades at UN and EU buildings. At Jarinje
and Brnjak on the Kosovo border, hundreds of Serb
protesters used bulldozers and explosives to demolish
customs and police posts. NATO troops regained control
and sealed the border. USA, Great Britain, France, Germany,
and Croatia immediately recognized Kosovo. Serbia
temporarily recalled its ambassadors from states recognizing
Kosovo. On February 21, 150,000 gathered in
Belgrade in protest against Kosovo’s independence. The
situation escalated when protesters invaded the US embassy
and set it on fire. One protester died in the blaze.
Riot police used tear gas to disperse the crowds, who