CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

4 Conflict Barometer 2008
equally, both accounting for twelve high intensity conflicts
each. However, while only two of Asia and Oceania’s
highly violent conflicts were wars, three wars were
fought out in Africa. The Middle East and Maghreb
came third with nine highly-violent conflicts, three of
them wars. One war and three severe crises were observed
in Europe, and two severe crises in the Americas.
This ranking indicates a significant change from 2007 to
2008: On the one hand, the number of highly violent
conflicts slightly decreased both in the Middle East and
Maghreb (from ten to nine) and in the Americas (from
three to two). On the other hand, it increased in Asia
and Oceania (from ten to twelve) and in Africa (from
nine to twelve). The most startling escalation was observed
in Europe, with highly violent conflicts increasing
from zero in 2007 to four in 2008. While last year’s zero
had been an all-time low reached for the first time since
1967, the four highly violent conflicts in Europe in 2008
mark the highest number since 1998. One of them, Russia
(Islamist rebels/Ingushetia) was located in the northern
Caucasus, which also had accounted for Europe’s
only recent long-lasting severe crisis up to 2006 [→ Russia
(Islamist rebels/Chechnya)]. The other three highly
violent conflicts of Europe were all fought out on Georgian
soil [→ Georgia (Abkhazia); Georgia (South Ossetia);
Russia - Georgia].
number of conflicts
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Distribution of all Conflicts in 2008 by Region and
Intensity Type
low intensity
medium intensity
high intensity
Europe
47
14
4
37
30
12
sub-Saharan
Africa
30
11
2
the Americas
68
31
12
Asia and Oceania
29
9
9
the Middle East
and Maghreb
If the number of conflicts is related to the number of
states in a region, the Middle East and Maghreb ranked
first both in terms of the average number of conflicts and
specifically of highly violent conflicts per state (2.2 and
0.4, respectively). Asia and Oceania ranked second with
regard to conflicts in general, and third regarding highintensity
conflicts. Africa ranked second where highly
violent conflicts were concerned, and third regarding
conflicts in general. From this point of view, neither Asia
and Oceania nor Africa was the most conflict-ridden region,
or that affected worst by massive violence, but the
Middle East and Maghreb. In both respects, Europe and
the Americas were the world’s most peaceful regions.
Dynamics within individual Conflicts
As in the previous years, approx. two thirds of all conflicts,
i.e. 227 out of 345, remained on the same level
of intensity from 2007 to 2008. A total of 65 conflicts
deescalated, all apart from one by one level only. Two
deescalated from wars to severe crises [→ Iraq (insurgents);
Pakistan (North and South Waziristan)], ten from
severe crises to crises, among them Myanmar (opposition)
and Lebanon (Fatah al-Islam). In these cases violence
merely eased. Nevertheless, in 32 conflicts violence
ceased for the duration of the period under examination
at least. For instance, the crisis involving opposition
and government in Chile deescalated by two levels
to a latent conflict, and 31 crises eased to manifest conflicts,
e.g. Georgia (opposition) and Syria – Israel. The
remaining 20 conflicts deescalating by one level all went
from manifest to latent conflicts.
Change of intensity
Number
Escalation by four levels 0
Escalation by three levels 1
Escalation by two levels 8
Escalation by one level 38
No change 227
Deescalation by one level 64
Deescalation by two levels 1
Deescalation by three levels 0
Deescalation by four levels 0
In contrast to the 65 deescalating cases, 47 conflicts escalated.
However, all but eight of these conflicts either
crossed the threshold of violence, or the violence intensified.
One case, the conflict between Russia and Georgia,
saw an escalation by three levels, from a manifest
conflict to a war. In addition, eight conflicts escalated by
two levels: Two escalated from non-violent manifest conflicts
to severe crises, i.e. Kenya (opposition) and Nigeria
(Christians – Muslims). Six conflicts escalated from
the lowest intensity level to crises: three intrastate conflicts,
i.e. Colombia (various indigenous groups), Algeria
(Berber/Kabylia), and Yemen (Islamic Jihad), as well as
three interstate conflicts, namely Eritrea – Djibouti, Thailand
– Cambodia (border), and USA - Pakistan. Furthermore,
only eight out of 38 conflicts escalating by one
level remained non-violent, that is, escalated from latent
to manifest conflicts. In the remaining 30 cases, conflict
conduct either turned violent or the violence intensified.
Four escalated from severe crises to wars: Iraq
(al-Sadr group), Turkey (PKK/KONGRA-GEL / Kurdish
areas), Pakistan (Islamists), and Chad (various rebel
groups). Fourteen conflicts intensified from crises to severe
crises, and twelve turned from non-violent manifest
conflicts to crises. Among the latter were the struggles
between opposition and government in Armenia, Burundi,
Nepal, and Thailand, as well as the border conflict
between Pakistan and India.
Conflict Items
As in the years before, the most frequent conflict item
in 2008 was system/ideology, with 107 cases. This item
signifies that the respective conflicts were conducted
in order to change the political or economic system, or