CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

44 Conflict Barometer 2008
tacked a military base of the Sudan People’s Liberation
Movement/Army (SPLM/A) in the villages of Nabanga
and Yamba near the Congolese border, killing 14 soldiers
as well as several civilians. Army representatives of
the DRC, Sudan, and Uganda subsequently discussed
military options against the LRA. On June 24, eight of
twelve members left the LRA negotiating team, citing
frustration over Kony’s refusal to sign the peace agreement.
In September, LRA forces raided the Congolese
villages of Bitima, Bayote, Bangbi, Kiliwa, Nawenanga,
and Namibia in Dungu Territory in the province of Haut
Uelé, abducting approx. 300 people. On November 4,
the mediating parties issued an ultimatum to Kony to
sign the peace agreement by November 30. (rs)
Zimbabwe (opposition)
Intensity: 3 Change: Start: 2000
Conflict parties: MDC-T, MDC-M vs. government
Conflict items: national power
The power conflict between the opposition and the government
of President Robert Mugabe and his ruling
party Zimbabwe National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-
PF) remained violent. On 12/13/07, Mugabe was elected
presidential candidate by all regional branches of his
ZANU-PF. In early February, the two factions of the divided
opposition party, the Movement for Democratic
Change led by Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC-T) and the
MDC led by Arthur Mutambara (MDC-M), respectively,
failed to reach an accord on a common presidential candidate
and combined lists for parliamentary as well as
local polls. MDC-M formed an electoral alliance with
Mugabe’s dismissed inner-party rival Simba Makoni,
and withdrew from the presidential race. The relatively
peaceful elections on March 29 were considered free
and fair by observers of the Southern African Development
Community (SADC). Observers from the USA or
the EU, however, were barred from monitoring the polls.
The final results of the parliamentary elections were published
on April 2. The two MDC factions won a majority
of votes in parliament, marking the first time since independence
that ZANU-PF had lost its majority in the
lower house. While MDC-T announced that its presidential
candidate Tsvangirai had won a majority of votes,
according to its own calculations, the results of the presidential
elections were not published. In early April, progovernment
militias as well as security forces launched
violent attacks on opposition members and their supporters,
causing several deaths throughout the country and
more than 1,000 refugees. Supporters of the opposition
were allegedly abused in torture camps. On May
2, the electoral commission eventually released the final
results. The figures indicated that Tsvangirai had won
the plurality but not the majority of votes, necessitating
a run-off between him and Mugabe scheduled for June
27. Attacks on opposition supporters commenced. The
situation in Mashonaland East was especially grave, accounting
for more than half of the reported cases of political
violence. After a seven-week tour to gain international
support, Tsvangirai returned to Zimbabwe on May
24. His return, originally scheduled for May 16, was postponed
due to fears of assassination attempts. On June
1, MDC-M leader Mutambara was arrested. Tsvangirai
was arrested five times over the course of June, and
the number of displaced rose to 200,000. On June 22,
Tsvangirai announced his pull-out from the presidential
run-off. One day later, he sought refuge in the Dutch
embassy after police had raided MDC-T’s headquarters.
The elections were nevertheless held. ZANU-PF supporters
allegedly forced people to go out and vote. Mugabe
was declared winner and sworn in on June 29. On
August 12, Human Rights Watch stated at least 163 opposition
activists and supporters were killed during the
violent anti-opposition campaign. Following Mugabe’s
election, political violence abated. From July 24 on, negotiations
on a power sharing deal mediated by South
African President Thabo Mbeki and the SADC were held
between ZANU-PF, MDC-T, and MDC-M in Pretoria. The
talks often stalled with Tsvangirai having in mind a predominately
ceremonial role for the president while Mugabe
tried to gain most of executive powers. Mugabe
also tried to sideline MDC-T by striking a deal with MDC-
M. On September 15, all parties signed a power-sharing
deal dividing executive powers so as to give ZANU-PF
15, MDC-T 13, and MDC-M three ministerial posts. The
accord was followed by discordance regarding the allocation
of key ministries. With ZANU-PF being in charge
of the army, the MDC factions demanded control of the
Ministry of Home Affairs controlling the police. On October
11, ZANU-PF claimed all key ministries including
Defense, Foreign Affairs, Justice, and Local Government.
Tsvangirai threatened to withdraw from the
talks. On November 9, SADC tried to break the deadlock
by proposing shared responsibility for the Ministry
of Home Affairs. However, by November 30, a united
government of the three parties had not been formed.
In 2008, Zimbabweans were also afflicted by the country’s
catastrophic economic situation, an official inflation
rate of 231 million percent, and an outbreak of cholera in
August, resulting in almost 10,000 cases and over 400
deaths. Over the course of the year, a total of more than
2,000,000 people fled to South Africa, sparking xenophobic
riots in the country [→ South Africa (xenophobes
- immigrants)]. (sk)