CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

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14 Conflict Barometer <strong>2008</strong> Name of conflict 1 Conflict parties 2 Conflict items Start Change 3 Int. 4 Russia (Islamist rebels/Kabardino-Balkaria)* Russia (Islamist rebels/Karachay- Cherkessia)* Russia (Islamist rebels/North Ossetia-Alania) Islamist rebels vs. government secession, system/ideology 2004 3 Islamist rebels vs. government secession, system/ideology 2001 3 Islamist rebels vs. government secession, system/ideology 2006 3 Russia (opposition) opposition vs. government system/ideology, national power 2001 2 Russia - Estonia Russia vs. Estonia international power 1994 2 Russia - Georgia Russia vs. Georgia international power 1992 5 Russia - Kazakhstan et al. (Caspian Sea)* Azerbaijan vs. Iran vs. Kazakhstan vs. Russia vs. Turkmenistan territory, international power, resources 1993 1 Russia - Latvia* Russia vs. Latvia territory, international power 1994 2 Russia - Norway (Barents Sea)* Russia - Norway et al. (Arctic)* Russia vs. Norway territory, resources 1947 2 Russia vs. USA vs. Canada vs. Norway vs. Denmark Russia - Ukraine Russia vs. Ukraine territory, international power, resources Serbia (Albanian minority/Presevo Valley)* Serbia (Bosniak minority/Sandzak)* Serbia (Hungarian minority/northern Vojvodina)* Serbia (Kosovo) UCPMB, Albanian minority vs. government territory, resources 2001 2 2003 2 secession 2000 2 Bosniak minority vs. government autonomy 1991 2 Hungarian minority vs. government autonomy 1998 1 Kosovo Albanians vs. central government secession 1989 3 Serbia (Wahhabis/Sandzak)* Wahhabis in Sandzak vs. government secession, system/ideology 2007 2 Serbia (ZzV/Vojvodina)* ZzV vs. government autonomy 1989 1 Slovakia (Hungarian minority/southern Slovakia)* Hungarian minority vs. government autonomy 1993 2 Slovenia - Croatia* Slovenia vs. Croatia territory 1991 2 Spain (Catalan nationalists/Catalonia)* Spain (ETA, PNV/Basque Provinces) Spain - United Kingdom (Gibraltar)* ERC, CiU, Catalan regional government vs. central government ETA, Basque regional government (PNV) vs. government secession 1979 1 secession 1959 3 Spain vs. United Kingdom territory 1954 1 Turkey - Armenia Turkey vs. Armenia international power, other 1991 2 Turkey - Greece Turkey vs. Greece territory 1973 2 United Kingdom (IRA et al./Northern Ireland) United Kingdom (SNP/Scotland) USA - Russia (missile system) IRA, Real IRA, Continuity IRA, Sinn Féin, SDLP vs. government, UDA, UVF, DUP, UUP Scottish regional government (SNP) vs. central government secession 1968 3 secession 2007 1 USA vs. Russia international power 2007 2 1 Conflicts marked with * are without description 2 Mentioned are only those conflict parties relevant for the period under review 3 Change in intensity compared to the previous year: or escalation by one or more than one level of intensity; or deescalation by one or more than one level of intensity; no change 4 Levels of intensity: 5 = war; 4 = severe crisis; 3 = crisis; 2 = manifest conflict; 1 = latent conflict Armenia (opposition) Intensity: 3 Change: Start: 2003 Conflict parties: opposition vs. government Conflict items: national power The conflict over national power between the opposition and the government turned violent. On February 19, Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian, an ally of outgoing President Robert Kocharian, won the presidential elections. His main rival, leading opposition candidate Levon Ter- Petrosian, Kocharian’s predecessor, insinuated irregularities. The OSCE confirmed the accusations in late May. From February 20 on, 30,000 to 50,000 opposition supporters staged daily protests in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan. The situation escalated when riot police fired
Europe 15 in the air and used tear gas to disperse protesters on March 1. Some reports stated that demonstrators had attacked the police. One policeman and seven civilians died in the ensuing clashes. Kocharian placed opposition leader Ter-Petrosian under house arrest, restricted the freedom of the press and assembly, deployed troops and imposed a state of emergency in Yerevan. It was lifted on March 21. The EU and OSCE immediately sent mediators to Yerevan, and the UN, USA, and Russia urged both parties to start a dialog. On April 8, several dozen opposition supporters clashed with police in the central Armenian town of Hrazdan following the disappearance of nine supporters of an arrested opposition parliamentarian. The following day, Sarkisian was inaugurated as president. On April 21, thousands participated in an opposition rally authorized by the government. Armenia’s main opposition alliance announced a renewed campaign of daily anti-government protests as thousands of its supporters marched through the center of Yerevan in July. Several dozen protesters began a non-stop sit-in near the city’s Liberty Square, cordoned off by hundreds of riot police. In late July, Sarkisian ruled out the possibility of starting a dialog with his political opponents. Throughout the year, the Armenian government arrested opposition politicians and supporters on charges related to their participation in opposition activities. (jd) Armenia - Azerbaijan Intensity: 3 Change: Start: 1987 Conflict parties: Armenia vs. Azerbaijan Conflict items: territory The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh continued. The number of ceasefire violations on the contact line between the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan increased. Armenian and Azerbaijani troops repeatedly exchanged gunfire early in March, marking the worst breaches of the 1994 ceasefire agreement in years. In the biggest single incident, Azerbaijan claimed that four of its troops and twelve Armenian soldiers were killed, whereas Armenia reported it had suffered no casualties while eight Azerbaijanis died on March 4. Both sides accused each other of disinformation and provoking these incidents as well as taking advantage of the continuing unrest in Armenia following the February presidential election [→ Armenia (opposition)]. On March 14, the UN General Assembly adopted an Azerbaijani-authored non-binding resolution demanding the withdrawal of Armenian forces from all occupied territories of Azerbaijan. In the context of the events in Georgia, Armenia declared it would not recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia [→ Georgia (Abkhazia); Georgia (South Ossetia)] as long as it did not recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic either [→ Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh)]. On September 26, a meeting was held between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan in New York [→ Turkey - Armenia]. OSCE Minsk Group officials also attended the meeting. On November 2, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a joint agreement aimed at finding a political settlement for their dispute. Only two weeks later, an Azerbaijani soldier died in a skirmish in the Fizuli region near the ceasefire line. Armenia side described the incident as the second serious incident on the contact line this year. Both sides blamed each other for the encounter. (sga) Belgium (CD&V/Flanders) Intensity: 2 Change: Start: 2007 Conflict parties: CD&V, N-VA vs. government, Walloon parties Conflict items: autonomy The tensions between Flemish and Walloon parties over the Flemish parties’ demands for financial autonomy and the Walloon parties’ rejection thereof continued. Following the failure of coalition talks on 12/01/07, King Albert II authorized incumbent Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt on 12/03/07 to find a solution to the crisis. He therefore transferred expanded privileges to Verhofstadt to allow him a fixed-term continuation as head of an interim government. Two days later, Verhofstadt succeeded in negotiating an interim government consisting of five parties for a three-month term. On March 23, Yves Leterme, the leader of the Flemish Christian Democrats (CD&V), successfully created a government with parliament approval. On May 6, a dispute about the reform of the country’s only bilingual election district, Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde, caused a deadlock between the coalition parties. On June 15, Leterme offered the King his resignation. Albert II rejected Leterme’s resignation and made a televised speech in defense of Belgian unity. On September 19, the separatist party New- Flemish Alliance (N-VA) announced it lacked trust in the current government’s ability to grant more autonomy for the regions, and withdrew from the government coalition. Three days later, Flemish and Walloon parties returned to the negotiation table for further talks on this topic. Nevertheless, the Flemish sports minister suggested the division of Belgium’s football federation, creating Francophone and Dutch-speaking wings. (sh) Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnian Serbs/Republic of Srpska) Intensity: 2 Change: Start: 1995 Conflict parties: Republic of Srpska vs. central government, Bosniak-Croat Federation Conflict items: secession The conflict concerning a more unitary political order between the two entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) stemming from the 1992-95 civil war, i.e. the Bosnian Serb Republic of Srpska (RS) and the Bosniak-Croat Federation (FBiH), continued. Bosniak politicians called for full implementation of the Dayton Accords or, failing that, a reversal of the agreement, leading to the abolition of the existing entities. RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik, however, strove for even greater devolution, and repeatedly threatened to seek the right to self-determination for the RS, especially in the light of Kosovo’s declaration of independence in February [→ Serbia (Kosovo)]. In April, the BiH Parliament approved key police reform laws maintaining separate police forces for each entity instead of merging them as called for by the EU. Nevertheless, a
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CONFLICT BAROMETER 2008

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