FINANCIAL INFO Composing Your Financial Symphony By John Abrams My son, Matthew has just completed his first year at the Frost School of Music at the University of Miami. One of his objectives is to develop his craft of music composition. He has enlightened me with the sounds of Bach, Beethoven, Brahms, Roger Sessions, and John Cage. Any composer of serious music will tell you that creating a symphonic work is a delicate balance of sounds, melodies, dissonance and harmonies. Each instrument creates unique sounds, vibrations and timbres and when heard alone, may not create the effect intended by the composer. For instance, a flute may not have the colorful sounds, but when introduced with the sounds of oboes, French horns, and clarinets, you have the beginning of a masterful composition. Hence, the true art of creating a masterpiece is combining melodies, counterpoint and harmonies which results in intended blended sounds. In this respect, composers and investors share some similarities. Successful investing typically combines a number of different investments of various durations simultaneously in order to create a portfolio that is “in tune” with the investor’s goals and objectives. It’s no coincidence that such a technique is the foundation for one of the most basic financial investment principles- asset allocation. Asset allocation is the process of attempting to decrease financial risk by investing monies in different asset classes. <strong>The</strong> major asset classes that investors are familiar with include stocks, bonds, and cash; however, there are dozens of other asset classes, i.e., real estate, currencies, commodities, derivatives, etc., that can make up an entire masterful well- diversified portfolio. Mutual funds often represent a combination of asset classes, but they may consist of just one asset category, such as a gold fund. At that point an exchange traded fund (ETF) may be a better “instrument” because of liquidity, lower management costs and individual ownership. Overall, asset allocation may help reduce investment risk or “beta” while achieving potentially higher returns. That’s because different categories of investments react differently to specific changes in the economy, interest rates and geopolitical landscape. Now, in <strong>2008</strong>, stock values are plummeting within the major indexes, however bond values are also decreasing, especially those with shorter durations. This is due mostly to the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, lowering the Fed Funds rate to 2.00 % which inversely raises the prices of those bonds. Does this necessarily lower the prices of stocks on Wall Street Not necessarily. As we saw the Fed lower the rates, we saw the stock market go up in prices. So, opposing correlations between asset classes typically reflect the supply and demand in those markets. For example: when the demand in bonds increase it’s usually because the interest rates are raised higher, and the money usually shifts out of the stock markets into bonds, because higher rates translate into higher costs for corporations and banks. <strong>The</strong> problem with trying to create an asset allocation today is that the stock market is now a bear market (20% down from its high on 10/08/2007), and the bond yields are going up because of inflationary pressures. If you allocate into bonds, you will lose value as the bond yields move up, an inverse relationship. If you move into stocks, you will lose value as the Fed can’t lower rates any more to help spur more growth.This is the scenario of a recession that most economists will recognize probably later this year. If this recession becomes global, then it will become more protracted. So how do you asset allocate your portfolio <strong>The</strong>re are many asset classes to move into other than stocks, bonds, or cash. We’ll cover those asset classes next month when we compose our greatest composition that is music to our portfolios. 132 SEPTEMBER <strong>2008</strong> John Abrams is an Investment Specialist, and a Financial Services Representative for Cypress Financial Group, an office of MetLife.
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