ANNUAL REPORT 2011 - Magyar Fejlesztési Bank Zrt.

❙ 8. MFB indiCator
The Autumn 2011 value of the Market Index fell almost to
where it was in Summer 2010 and sank below the threshold of
50 points, meaning that market conditions and opportunities
tipped towards the adverse end of the scale in Autumn 2011.
The gap between the value of the Macroeconomic and the
Market Index closed somewhat, which indicated that the
negative turn of the macroeconomic environment had a
powerful impact on the market position of domestic companies.
The divergence of internal and external processes (the
widening of the gap between the Foreign and Domestic subindex
components) continued despite the fact that both
domestic and foreign market conditions were seen as becoming
more adverse in the preceding six months. Nevertheless, the
deceleration of domestic markets proved to be more pronounced,
while the Foreign sub-index component still managed to stay
above 50 points signalling (the more subdued) driving force
of foreign markets in the second half of 2011. Expectations of
corporate results were overshadowed by dark pessimism in
autumn 2011, and (judging from the responses of respondent
companies) the decline of several sectors could be of a degree
that increased the risk of such operations markedly and may
block their alleys to sources of external funding.
The positive turnaround (a jump from 20% to 40% in six months
in the group of companies reporting increasing profits) measured in
spring 2011 in the impressions of companies of corporate results
during the preceding 12 months came to a halt and less than a third
(31%) of the firms claimed improving net profits in autumn 2011,
while more than half (51%) reported declining profits after taxation
for the 12 months preceding the survey. Corporate expectations also
showed a major shift compared to spring 2011 showing dark
pessimism comparable to that reported at the end of 2009: only 25%
of the companies reckoned with improving results in the period up to
autumn 2012 and 46% reported expected downturns. (Symbolically,
only 15% had expected a major reduction of earnings by over 5%
in spring, with the same pessimistic outlook typical of 26% of the
respondents in the autumn.)
Back in spring 2011, the majority of players in four sectors
(crop production, food processing, tourism and ICT services)
had expected growing results, whilst the automotive manufacturing
was the only sector where more than half of the participants remained
52 MFB ANNUAL REPORT 2011