PERTH AIRPORT Master Plan 2009

P E R T H A I R P O R T M a s t e r P l a n 2 0 0 9
movement forecasts are added to passenger aircraft movement
forecasts to produce the total aircraft movements forecast. This
data is used to determine the scale and timing of investments in
airfield infrastructure, including runways, taxiways and aprons.
Total aircraft movement forecasts are also a key input into
noise exposure forecasting.
The capacity of airport infrastructure must be such that it
provides the targeted levels of efficiency and customer service
at the peak demand periods. Hence, a critical element of airport
planning is the combination of activity forecasts with future
airline schedule assumptions to forecast peak hour demand
for airfield, terminal and surface transport infrastructure.
5.3 Growth Forecasts 2008/2009 to
2028/2029
The forecasts which underpin the Airport Development
and Surface Access Plans described in Chapters 7 and 8 are
summarised below:
Passenger Growth Forecasts
International passenger numbers per year at Perth Airport
are forecast to grow from 2.5 million in 2008 to 5.6 million
in 2029. In the same period domestic passenger numbers per
year are forecast to grow from 6.7 million to 13.3 million.
Total passenger movements per year are forecast to grow
from 9.2 million in 2008 to 18.9 million.
Table 5.1 Passenger Forecasts for Perth Airport (‘000s Passengers)
Forecasts
5 year-CAGR a
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2019 2024 2029
Int’l Pax 2,540 2,508 2,621 2,841 3,064 3,212 3,972 4,756 5,595
% Annual Change 1.1% -1.3% 4.5% 8.4% 7.8% 4.8% 4.3% 3.7% 3.3%
Domestic Pax
- Interstate 4,723 4,808 5,092 5,454 5,694 5,944 7,322 8,616 9,788
% Annual Change 0.4% 1.8% 5.9% 7.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 3.3% 2.6%
- Intrastate 2,137 2,098 2,026 2,063 2,143 2,253 2,713 3,175 3,588
% Annual Change 8.9% -1.8% -3.4% 1.8% 3.9% 5.1% 3.8% 3.2% 2.5%
- All Domestic 6,861 6,906 7,119 7,517 7,837 8,197 10,035 11,791 13,376
% Annual Change 2.9% 0.7% 3.1% 5.6% 4.3% 4.6% 4.1% 3.3% 2.6%
Total Pax 9,400 9,414 9,740 10,359 10,901 11,409 14,007 16,547 18,972
% Annual Change 2.4% 0.1% 3.5% 6.4% 5.2% 4.7% 4.2% 3.4% 2.8%
Notes: (a) Compound Annual Growth Rate. Source: TFI.
The following figure 5.1 compares the Master Plan 2004 passenger forecasts to actual experience up to 2008 and to the
updated forecasts contained in this Master Plan 2009. This comparison shows that the actual passenger movements were
much higher than forecast. The graph also highlights the forecast slowing in the rate of growth in 2009 and 2010 due to the
deterioration in economic conditions which commenced in 2008, with a recovery to long-run trend growth rates commencing
in 2011.
Given the significant uncertainty that currently exists in relation to the outlook for Australian and global economic growth Perth
Airport is likely to be reviewing the activity forecasts contained in this Master Plan to take into account developments including
the International Monetary Fund’s recent downward revision of economic forecasts for many countries relevant to Perth Airport
aviation demand.
This is likely to result in downward revision of Perth Airport’s activity forecasts, but not to the extent that would have a major
impact on peak hour demand for important airport processes. Hence the airport development plans contained in this Master Plan
are not expected to materially change.
35