Mapping Cultural Participation in Chicago - Cultural Policy Center

ModelingParticipation:Does EthnicityStill Matter?As evidenced by Maps 9a, 9b, and 10, Chicago is a city that is segmented into many ethnicenclaves. But ethnicity is only one of several indicators related to participation with thelarge arts and cultural organizations.This study shows that there are many white communities unengaged in thelarger arts organizations, just as with African-American and Latino communities.If communities with similar socioeconomic characteristics are compared, will differencesin participation with the large organizations still be associated with the ethniccomposition of an area’s population?To address this question, we developed a statistical model that associates an area’sarts participation density with measures of its median income, household structure,and educational attainment. Using this model, we estimate the average relation betweeneach of our socioeconomic factors and arts participation in the large organizations. Forexample, we find that if we compare areas with similar levels of educational attainmentand household structure, the areas with higher median incomes generally have higherlevels of participation in the large arts organizations.The main purpose of our statistical model is to predict what an area’sparticipation density in large arts organizations might be if only socioeconomicvariables—and not the community’s racial and ethnic composition—areconsidered in predicting participation.The difference between the actual participation density for an area and the participationdensity predicted by the model is a measure of whether the area has unexpectedly high orlow participation in large organizations, given its socioeconomic characteristics. If actualparticipation exceeds predicted participation by a large amount, this means that comparedwith other areas with similar socioeconomic characteristics (median household income,educational attainment, and household structure), this area has an unexpectedly highlevel of arts participation. By contrast, if actual participation is far less than its predictedparticipation, this means that compared with other areas with similar characteristics, thisarea has an unexpectedly low level of arts participation in the large organizations.Because we compare each census tract to other census tracts with similar socioeconomiccharacteristics, it is possible for high income areas, such as those along Lake Michiganand north of downtown, to have unexpectedly low levels of arts participation in largeorganizations, and for low income areas, such as those in the South and far West Sidesof the city, to have unexpectedly high levels of arts participation in large organizations.It is important to understand what the findings from this analysis represent.To appreciate the use of our statistical model, it is important first to understand themeaning of potential results. If we find that the concentration of African-Americans andLatinos in an area is essentially uncorrelated with whether the area has either anunexpectedly high or low arts participation density, then we have evidence thatdifferences in participation in large organizations are largely due to incomes, educationalattainment, household structure, and possibly other unmeasured factors; in this scenario,it is not likely due to the community’s ethnic composition. Alternatively, if we find thathaving unexpectedly low arts participation densities is related to the ethnic compositionof an area, there would be evidence that ethnicity may be a contributing factor to the levelof participation in the large arts organizations in Chicago.37