Volume I: Investment Prospectus Rwanda Electricity Sector Access ...

Figure 4.1: Overview of Approach to Electrification PlanningA brief description of each stage in the planning process shown in Figure 4.1 follows below:• Demand forecast (by sublocation)—The country has been divided into over9,300 planning cells (sublocations) and a simple demand forecast is computed foreach planning cell. The final demand in each cell is used for the purpose ofappropriately sizing the technology options to be compared in the least costtechnology model• Comparison of technology costs—The capital and operating costs of differentmethods of providing electricity to meet demand in each planning cell arecompared. This analysis includes the cost of grid connections and grid supply,diesel generator sets of different sizes, micro-hydro generators (where a suitablehydro resource is available) and solar PV panels (for domestic use). The costs ofeach option over a 10 year period are discounted into present value termsassuming a discount rate of 10 percent• Selection of least-cost electrification option—The decentralised electrificationoptions (diesel, micro-hydro and solar PV) are compared to select the best offgridoption. The cost of the best off-grid option is divided by the cost perkilometre of medium voltage (MV) line to estimate the maximum length of MVline that would be cost-effective to electrify each planning cell. If the centre of theplanning cell is closer to the nearest adjacent cell than this level of cost effectiveexpenditure on MV line, the cell is identified as grid compatible. Planning cellsthat are further away from the nearest adjacent cell are identified as being bettersuited to off-grid electrification15