Volume I: Investment Prospectus Rwanda Electricity Sector Access ...

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Geospatial load forecast and distributional capacity reviewThe grid prioritisation and phasing of new connections to meet the Government’s targetshave been used to compile a geospatial load forecast. This load forecast takes into accountthe growth rate of new electricity users from initially low levels of consumption (as low as20kWh for some rural households) to higher levels of usage over a 10 year period. Thespatial component of the load forecast allows loads to be aggregated within planning cells,using an electricity usage “coincidence” factor to account for different patterns of usagefrom different types of consumers. The geospatial forecast also enables the association ofcells with the existing network, so that demand is linked to feeder zones to assess thecapacity of the network.Distribution network information on line and cable types for distribution feeders in Rwandais currently very limited. The electricity utility has provided an indication of typical conductorsizes used at the different voltage levels in Rwanda, which is presented in Table 4.3 (below).These conductor sizes are considered relatively large compared to usual practice in Africa.Table 4.3: Typical Sizes of Conductors UsedkV Conductor Current (A) Normal Capacity (MVA)110 240 / 40 610 11770 132 / 24 420 5130 120 / 20 410 2215 70 / 12 300 86.6 35 190 3These typical conductor sizes have been compared with network loading data received fromthe National Dispatch Centre. An initial high-level assessment of current loading indicatesthat adequate capacity will be generally available to support the new connections during theinitial years of the access programme. However, detailed network modelling and load flowanalysis will be necessary in the implementation stage of the access programme to identifypotential capacity constraints in specific areas. Any bottlenecks can then be remediedthrough appropriate network strengthening investments. Additional network strengtheningwill also be required due to normal load growth and the rapid increase in the number ofconnections.The costs of network strengthening investments have been estimated for this accessprogramme Prospectus. In the absence of more detailed information these costs have beencalculated depending on the additional demand added to the electricity network each year.4.5 Off-Grid Electrification PlanningOff-grid power supplies are an important complement to the new electricity connectionsthat will be made on the national grid. Rwanda is fortunate to have excellent water resourcesand hilly terrain that provides good run-off to harness hydro resources for energy. Solar PVelectrification is also a viable option for electrification in parts of the country that cannot beeconomically reached by the national grid in the next five years.32
Off-grid micro hydro systemsThe comprehensive Hydropower Atlas developed for Rwanda identifies over 300 existingand potential future hydro sites. 17 The Hydropower Atlas has been used in this Prospectus toidentify the micro-hydro sites that should be targeted for development as part of the accessprogramme. Further technical and financial assessments would be required to confirm theviability of developing these sites.To prioritise the most viable potential micro-hydro sites, this Prospectus uses the followingthree-step approach:• Potential sites in the Hydropower Atlas with a capacity of zero or greater than750kW are excluded from the analysis• GIS data on the supply area served by each potential site are used to prioritisemicro-hydro developments. Demand for each site is estimated using an averageADMD of 0.3kVA and a power factor of 0.99. Sites with higher expected netpresent values are prioritised ahead of less financially viable sites• Micro-hydro sites that are not capacity-constrained within a ten year time horizonare given priority. This eliminates small sites that would be fully utilised within ashort timeframe from the analysis.The 25 sites with the highest priority are selected for development within the next five years.The cost of supply from each site is then compared to an estimated long-run marginal supplycost on the grid of 12c/kWh. Where the cost of developing a micro-hydro site and thetransmission to connect the site to the network results in lower-cost power than grid supplythe site would be best developed as a grid connected system.A listing of the sites by district and sector is provided in the Technical Annex, Section 2.2. 1817 Ministry of Infrastructure and Belgian Technical Cooperation “Hydropower Atlas” (2007).18 Further information on each site, including geo-coordinates, can be found in the Ministry of Infrastructure and BelgianTechnical Cooperation “Hydropower Atlas” (2007).33
Page 1: Rwanda ElectricitySector AccessProg
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents1 Purpose of Prosp
Page 7 and 8: Figure 2.2: Comparative Data from A
Page 9 and 10: Glossary of TermsAbbreviations and
Page 11 and 12: Executive SummaryThe Government of
Page 13 and 14: A series of important conclusions o
Page 15 and 16: There are three sources of funds fo
Page 17 and 18: 1 Purpose of ProspectusThe Governme
Page 19 and 20: 2 Access Programme is a Critical Pa
Page 21 and 22: supply capacity is available as exp
Page 23 and 24: Table 2.2: EDPRS Targets for Expand
Page 25 and 26: important for the access programme,
Page 27 and 28: Central GovernmentThe Government’
Page 29 and 30: 3.4 Energy Sector Legislation and R
Page 31 and 32: Figure 4.1: Overview of Approach to
Page 33 and 34: Table 4.1: Variables Considered in
Page 35 and 36: Figure 4.3: Location of Administrat
Page 37 and 38: In order to provide a realistic vie
Page 39 and 40: The planning approach compares the
Page 41 and 42: • Presidential priorities for ele
Page 43 and 44: Figure 4.8: Least Cost Grid Priorit
Page 45 and 46: Figure 4.12: Least Cost Grid Priori
Page 47: Figure 4.14: Least Cost Grid Priori
Page 51 and 52: Table 4.4: Social Institutions Elec
Page 53 and 54: Figure 4.17 (below) indicates the l
Page 55 and 56: Figure 4.19: Overall Electrificatio
Page 57 and 58: 5 Funding for the Access ProgrammeT
Page 59 and 60: The average contract size is expect
Page 61 and 62: Estimates of the capital cost of th
Page 63 and 64: ased on how much is needed to meet
Page 65 and 66: which estimate 370GWh of domestic e
Page 67 and 68: Table 5.5: Capital Cost of Sector I
Page 69 and 70: on approximately 75 percent of resi
Page 71 and 72: • The capital costs of the access
Page 73 and 74: • EPC contracts for half of the n
Page 75 and 76: Managing Director of RECO will then
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.2: Overview of Programme M
Page 79 and 80: The electricity utility is well-pla
Page 81 and 82: To account for funds committed to t
Page 83 and 84: Impact on funding requirements-US$1
Page 85 and 86: 7.3 Management of Development Partn
Page 87 and 88: ReferencesColumbia Earth Institute.
Page 89: T: +1 (202) 466-6790F: +1 (202) 466

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