Volume I: Investment Prospectus Rwanda Electricity Sector Access ...

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• Geospatial prioritisation for grid compatible areas—To prioritise new gridconnections a weight is applied to grid compatible cells depending ondemographic and cost factors, including proximity to the existing grid, interhouseholddistances, social infrastructure, access to road networks, and the abilityof consumers in each planning cell to afford electricity. The objective of thisprioritisation is to ensure that the programme maximises the benefits ofelectrification, while minimising programme costs. New connections are identified(by sublocation) to meet the by the EDPRS & Vision 2020 targets• Geospatial load forecast and review of distribution capacity—Acomprehensive geospatial load demand forecast is computed taking into accountthe location of the prioritised new connections over the planning horizon. A highlevelreview of existing MV lines and substations is conducted to ensure that theMV distribution network has the capacity to supply the new connections• Off-grid electrification planning—A high-level plan is prepared for extendingelectricity to locations where off-grid electrification is identified as least-cost. Themajor component of this plan is to provide solar PV units for schools, healthcentres and administrative offices to meet the Government’s targets for each ofthese important social institutions• Investment plan for electricity access programme—The final stage in theplanning process is to cost the investment plan based on the investmentrequirements identified. These costs provide the basis for the detailed fundingplan described in Section 5.The following sections of this Prospectus present further detail on the analysis completed toplan the access programme. The results and key conclusions from each stage in the planningprocess are also presented and discussed.4.2 Review of Social, Economic and Network CharacteristicsA necessary input into the planning process for Rwanda’s electrification programme is anunderstanding of the social and economic characteristics in different parts of the country.The technical planning process then uses information on different settlement patterns, thelocation of social and economic infrastructure, and existing electrical infrastructure toprovide a highest value assessment of how to expand access to electricity. The planningprocess for the access programme specifically considers:• Administrative boundaries and population density• The location and electrification status of social infrastructure• Existing electricity infrastructure• The affordability of electricityThe social and economic information collected for this Prospectus has been sourced from arange of Government and academic sources and combined into a single ArcGIS (version9.2) geospatial database. Some datasets are used directly in the format provided, while otherdata are manipulated into a more useful format for the access programme. The informationsourced for the planning exercise is summarised in Table 4.1 (below).16
Table 4.1: Variables Considered in Planning the Access ProgrammeType of Characteristic Variable Source Figure ReferenceDemographic Population data and growth 11 National ID Survey Figure 4.2PoliticalCountry and administrativeboundariesNational Institute ofStatistics andMINALOCFigure 4.2Political Presidential priorities Electrogaz Not shownSocial Administrative offices MINALOC Figure 4.3Social Health centres MINISANTE Figure 4.3Social Schools MINEDUC Not shownNatural features Roads, rivers, national parks etc MININFRA andMINIRENAElectricity infrastructureLocation of power lines (HV,MV and LV)Not shownElectrogaz Figure 4.4Electricity infrastructure Location of micro-hydro sites BTC micro-hydro atlas Figure 4.4Demographic Income levels and poverty data NIS EICV2 Survey Figure 4.5The quality of information available for this Prospectus varies, and initiatives to improvedata availability and accuracy will be required to enhance planning capability in Rwanda. Onegeneral improvement would be for the Government or the GIS Centre at the NationalUniversity of Rwanda to maintain a central registry for GIS data that contains officialadministrative boundaries and demographic data associated with each area. Swede Survey iscurrently completing an aerial photography survey in Rwanda, which will allow a morecredible analysis of social and economic conditions.Information on income levels and poverty data would also be improved by enabling users toaccess data at finer levels of resolution. Data from the EICV2 survey is currently available atthe district level, and the data would be most valuable for the type of analysis presented inthis Prospectus at the sector level.The data available on social infrastructure could also be enhanced for planning purposes.The relevant attributes of each administrative office, health centre and school would help toplan infrastructure investments that would support these facilities. In this Prospectus, generalassumptions have been made about the average energy consumption at each type of socialinstitution. We understand that MININFRA is currently collecting data on the attributes atmany social institutions throughout the country.A significant amount of good work has been completed to capture the geographicalcoordinates of electricity infrastructure, with all HV and MV overhead line routes andsubstation/power station locations accessible in a GIS format. However, additional work isrequired to capture MV underground cable routes (mainly in Kigali). There is also an urgent11 Population growth is assumed at national level and densities at the sector level. Certain government policies (e.g. Habitatpolicy, imidugudu) may affect these parameters, and the impacts should be incorporated into the programme duringimplementation.17
Page 1: Rwanda ElectricitySector AccessProg
Page 5 and 6: Table of Contents1 Purpose of Prosp
Page 7 and 8: Figure 2.2: Comparative Data from A
Page 9 and 10: Glossary of TermsAbbreviations and
Page 11 and 12: Executive SummaryThe Government of
Page 13 and 14: A series of important conclusions o
Page 15 and 16: There are three sources of funds fo
Page 17 and 18: 1 Purpose of ProspectusThe Governme
Page 19 and 20: 2 Access Programme is a Critical Pa
Page 21 and 22: supply capacity is available as exp
Page 23 and 24: Table 2.2: EDPRS Targets for Expand
Page 25 and 26: important for the access programme,
Page 27 and 28: Central GovernmentThe Government’
Page 29 and 30: 3.4 Energy Sector Legislation and R
Page 31: Figure 4.1: Overview of Approach to
Page 35 and 36: Figure 4.3: Location of Administrat
Page 37 and 38: In order to provide a realistic vie
Page 39 and 40: The planning approach compares the
Page 41 and 42: • Presidential priorities for ele
Page 43 and 44: Figure 4.8: Least Cost Grid Priorit
Page 45 and 46: Figure 4.12: Least Cost Grid Priori
Page 47 and 48: Figure 4.14: Least Cost Grid Priori
Page 49 and 50: Off-grid micro hydro systemsThe com
Page 51 and 52: Table 4.4: Social Institutions Elec
Page 53 and 54: Figure 4.17 (below) indicates the l
Page 55 and 56: Figure 4.19: Overall Electrificatio
Page 57 and 58: 5 Funding for the Access ProgrammeT
Page 59 and 60: The average contract size is expect
Page 61 and 62: Estimates of the capital cost of th
Page 63 and 64: ased on how much is needed to meet
Page 65 and 66: which estimate 370GWh of domestic e
Page 67 and 68: Table 5.5: Capital Cost of Sector I
Page 69 and 70: on approximately 75 percent of resi
Page 71 and 72: • The capital costs of the access
Page 73 and 74: • EPC contracts for half of the n
Page 75 and 76: Managing Director of RECO will then
Page 77 and 78: Figure 6.2: Overview of Programme M
Page 79 and 80: The electricity utility is well-pla
Page 81 and 82: To account for funds committed to t
Page 83 and 84:
Impact on funding requirements-US$1
Page 85 and 86:
7.3 Management of Development Partn
Page 87 and 88:
ReferencesColumbia Earth Institute.
Page 89:
T: +1 (202) 466-6790F: +1 (202) 466
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