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TROPICAL DEPRESSION(09W)Tropical Depression 09W, just like itspredecessor Tropical Storm Freda, was ~difficult storm to warn on. The depression’slow-level circulation remained weak andpoorly organized which made it very difficultto locate. Extensive post-analysis indicatesthat JTWC warned on the mid-level circulation,which was co-located with the organizedconvection, rather than the ill-defined lowlevelcenter which remained well to the southof the main convection.Tropical Depression 09W first appearedearly on the 7th of August as a broad 1006 mblow in the Near-Equatorial Trough approximately660 nm (1222 km) south of Guam. Thedisturbance was.mentioned on the 070600ZSignificant Tropical Weather Advisory (ABEHPGTW) . As it moved to the northwest, thedisturbance showed signs of increasedorganization on satellite imagery, promptingthe issuance of a TCFA at 0B1200Z.Aircraft reconnaissance on the afternoonof 9 August, indicated that the surfacecirculation associated with the disturbancewas broad and weak. only 10 to 15 kt (5 to8 m/s) surface winds were observed with anMSLP of 1004 mb. The TCFA was reissued dailyfrom the 9th to the llth as the systemcontinued to show convective organizationand the presence of a surface circulation inthe synoptic data. During this period, thedisturbance was very slow to develop afavorable upper-level circulation. The 200mb flow persisted in being unidirectional(eaeterly) over the convection. Thiseasterly flow sheared the convectionpreventing the accumulation of warm, moistair at the low-to-mid levels and thesttendant surface pressure drop.north of the depression. In retrospect, themore accurate and synoptically correctforecast, especially with such a weak systemas Tropical Depression 09W, would have beena west-northwest to west track along thenorthern side of the monsoon trough.Complicating the forecasting ofTropical Depression 09W was the difficultyin positioning the surface center. Thesurface circulation center was poorlyorganized because it was embedded in themonsoon trough. The displacement of themid-to-upper level circulation to the northwithin the convection, made accuratepositioning by satellite imagery of theactual low-level depreeeion center verydifficult. Figure 3-09-1 shows one of thefew times that the weak , poorly defined,low-level circulation was visible onsatellite imagery. Post-analysis ofaircraft reconnaissance, synoptic, andsatellite data, shows that the depressioncenter, as reflected in the warningpositions, was the middle-to-upper levelcenter and not the weak and poorly definedsurface circulation center which was locatedapproximately 150 nm (278 km) to the south.JTWC warned on this mid-level feature until150000Z when the convection finallydissipated over Taiwan and it was obviousthat no significant low-level circulationpersisted. It is now apparent that thesurface center moved along the monsoontrough as a sheared, sometimes exposedlow-level circulation from 111200Z to131800Z and dissipated shortly thereafteras it merged with a cyclonic circulationin the northern South China Sea. Thiscirculation would develop into TropicalStorm Gerald a few days later.The aircraft reconnaissance investigativeflight on the morning of 10 August could notfind a surface circulation center. By thistime, the system had moved out of the Near-Equatorial Trough and had become the southeasternextension of the monsoon trough.Between 1006OOZ and 1106OOZ, thedisturbance moved almost due north. Thisbrought the disturbance under the influenceof a TUTT cell located to the northwest nearTaiwan. The 200 mb flow over the system nowcame from the south and was diffluent norththrough east of the surface circulation.Satellite imagery confirms this by indicatingthe presence of the heaviest convection inthat area. At 110729Z, aircraft reconnaissanceclosed-off a surface circulation centerwith 25 kt (13 m/s) surface winds and an MSLPof 1003 mb. Based on the improved upperlevelwind flow and the closed circulationfound by aircraft, the first warning onTropical Depression 09W was issued at 111200Z.The first six warnings on 09W forecastit to move to the northwest. These forecastswere based on objective forecast aids,including the One-Way Interactive TropicalCyclone Model (OTCM). Upon post-analysis,these forecasts do not agree well with thesynoptic situation present at the time. Alow-to-middle level ridge was located to theFigume %09-1. TJu@a.t VepU.5&ion 0~~)X14b&lg south06 ra.i.uun. Note the pooz.tg de&ined eqxmed hw-tevettiut.ation&cated & to the bouth 06 the mainw nvecti.m. A.tthetie, the deptubion’h centenw thought to be -hatted undwea.th tti wnvection.Howevtn, pwt-anatqd nowhdtca.tu the expo4edEhw-Levet ticu.httonw the actua.t.tocation o~thedeph.ub.ion’4 cent# [ 1307182 Augubt NOAA vi.ma.finlagay) .45
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Page 1 and 2: 1984ANNUAL TROPICALi CYCLONEREPORT1
Page 3 and 4: U,S, NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND CEN
Page 5 and 6: FOREWARDThe Annual Tropical Cyclone
Page 7 and 8: CHAPTER VAPPLIED TROPICAL CYCLONE R
Page 9 and 10: outes the large volume of meteorolo
Page 11 and 12: 8. PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGESFor
Page 13 and 14: 4.SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE SUMMARYT
Page 15 and 16: TABLE 2-4. FIX PLATFORN SUNNARY FOR
Page 17 and 18: platform (land, aircraft, or ship)
Page 19 and 20: TABLE 3-2.1984 SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
Page 21 and 22: +-s+ +n‘1” L’1 . 1’ .!”.h
Page 23 and 24: t-iilI ,’+“ 3’++ , +*2Itillml
Page 25 and 26: ,. -.. ..- .,. ,.-...- ... ., ,.,-
Page 27 and 28: F@#LIZ 3-02-2. Wgnneab a 50 kt (26
Page 29 and 30: .-TYPHOONALEXBEST TRACK TC-03W -01
Page 31 and 32: F@Uu? 3-03-3. Akd-tt.opobph&c ff&W
Page 33 and 34: ,., . 1 -.. :..,, . /d.. :,, .. . -
Page 35 and 36: Aircraft reconnaissance flights on
Page 37 and 38: —$ v: / -f L I I I ) i I I I , ,
Page 39 and 40: Between 0000Z on the 9th and 1200z
Page 41 and 42: 0[CJ3ilSSl ONINilVM lSV1 ~a3flSSl !
Page 43 and 44: i’nthe northwest quadrant of Dina
Page 45 and 46: ,!!1,,,,1,TYPHOONEDBEST TRACK TC-07
Page 48 and 49: TROPICA.LSTORM FREDA(08w)Tropical S
Page 50 and 51: F.igum 3-08-3. Tz.Op.id .$tozm FJLe
Page 54: TROPICAL STORM GERALD(1OW)Tropical
Page 57 and 58: !,, ,, ,,, ,, ,,TYPHOONHOLLYBEST TR
Page 59: Figure 3-ii-2 shows the wind fIeIda
Page 62: TROPICAL DEPRESSION(12W)Tropical De
Page 65 and 66: t“1’””# IL”a3nssl s3NINUV
Page 67 and 68: This change in track was due to the
Page 69 and 70: ..——w.,.. - . . .- -., . . L! .
Page 71 and 72: At the time of the first warning,Tr
Page 73 and 74: k’ 125° 130” 135° 140° 145
Page 75 and 76: Fi.gLuLe3-15-2. /ii.d--!CV& tipObpk
Page 77 and 78: ,..‘“!::$:”:::b::t::t:::h.:7P
Page 80 and 81: TROPICAJ_ISTORM MAURY(17W)During a
Page 82 and 83: At 301200z, Maury was approximately
Page 84 and 85: TROPICALSTORN NINA(18W)Tropical Sto
Page 86 and 87: Between 3006002 and 3018002, the lo
Page 88 and 89: TYPHOON OGDEN(19W)Typhoon Ogden was
Page 90 and 91: The ARWO also verified that extratr
Page 92 and 93: TYPHOON PHYLLIS(20W)Typhoon Phyllis
Page 94 and 95: As Phyllis passed north of 25N, the
Page 96 and 97: TROPICAL STORM ROY (21W)Tropical St
Page 98 and 99: As it turned out, these would be th
Page 100 and 101: TROPICAL STORM SUSAN (22W)Tropical
Page 102 and 103:
transited up the Mekong Valley. Eve
Page 104 and 105:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION(23W)Tropical De
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TYPHOON THAI) (24W)Typhoon Thad dev
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(a)(c)F.igtie3-24-2. Th.tte view o~
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SUPER TYPHOON VANESSA(25W)Super Typ
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The only significant damage on Guam
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TYPHOON WARREN(26W)Typhoon Warren w
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Other coastal areas and marineinter
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TYPHOQN AGNES(27w)Typhoon Agnes was
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Figuze 3-27-2. TyphoonAgnebat 100kZ
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18*+x+++\,,+++%+ \+ + +++\+X-* . ,+
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forecast to pass less than 30 nrn (
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F.igoAe3-2g-4. i3W emt od Luzonab i
Page 128:
Figuzt 3-2~-7. Tgphoon C.&zIUZ acee
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From this point on, Clara was a wel
Page 133 and 134:
ii‘:,;f’-(-$!l$j*; ,;~~:, ..,..
Page 135 and 136:
convection near the center of the d
Page 137 and 138:
2. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCL
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40” 45°30”coJO 55°60” 65°
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~o..~GjO‘5°Jo 55° 60° 65° 70
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(9 L-Z M3N) 29/000” 05+3 .06.% I
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Since Tropical Cyclone 03B was firm
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DTG2806Z2812z2818Z2900Z2906Z2912Z29
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During the next 48 hours, TropicalC
Page 152 and 153:
10NAUTICAL MILE ERROR9Figure4-2aI,I
Page 154 and 155:
ANNUAL MEAN FORECAST ERRORS (NM) FO
Page 156 and 157:
“b.North Indian OceanThe position
Page 158 and 159:
2. COMPARISON OF OBJECTWE TECHNIQUE
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= 492 317227 0m459 215 472 L602.283
Page 162 and 163:
CHAPTER V - APPLIED TROPICAL CYCLON
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TROPICAL CYCLONE READINESS CONDITIO
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xss7 TRncK WIRNINGPOSIT,?0,5 135.12
Page 168 and 169:
EEElBEST TRACK UhRNING 24 HOUR FO!?
Page 170 and 171:
POS 1714.7 1Z6.314.5 1z5, L314.6 12
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TVPHOON CARYBEST TRRCK D6TA*LL F~qm
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BESTTRI? CKPOS1 T21,0 162,2Z1.0 161
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BEST TRACK WM?NINGPOSIT28 0 13s,127
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;:; 311700 32.8N 120.7E LIIND3es4 i
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FILL FORECRSTSURNG $;&R ~~;:R 72;:R
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fil RcRfiFT FIXESF1!:POSITIONFLTL V
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+ ++++++ ++++++++++++- . . . . . .
Page 186 and 187:
BESTTRA(POSIT19.1 142.719,5 141.819
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56:;5.960616e63x :;6667686970x 7;73
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MO/DR/HR0828ee2e8&!806z082812208281
Page 192 and 193:
BEST TRflCK IJARNINGPOSIT18,6 115.7
Page 194 and 195:
EEEiiElBEST TROCK URRNING 24 HOUR F
Page 196 and 197:
EiElBEST TRRCK WQRNINGPOSIT WIND PO
Page 198 and 199:
BEsr 7RIICK UC+RNING 24 HOuR F0REc~
Page 200 and 201:
OEST TRFICK IWRNINGPOSIT8.7 1s0,19.
Page 202 and 203:
75;;z:80al828384858887::9091::94;29
Page 204 and 205:
6465666768697071x ;;757677767960818
Page 206 and 207:
%67::;;7.273747s7677787980818283848
Page 208 and 209:
.-..,..-=.- ..7 .PCN 3PCN 4PCN 3PCN
Page 210 and 211:
EEiEilBEST TRQCK WI%RNINGPOSIT5.4 1
Page 212 and 213:
8EST TR.4 CKUfiRNING24 HOUR FORECeS
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2. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONEBEST T
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~&WQ&~R1 10s062i10912z1109I8Zl11000
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e3L3609@311040311@5031339e317@90323
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NEPRFNESSNaval Environmental Predic
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APPENDIXIllNAMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLO
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APPENDIXPAST ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLON
Page 226 and 227:
UNCLASSIFIED;ECURITY CLASSIFICATION
Page 228:
w*Taopicd Cydlone 30S (KarniAg) on
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