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TABLEOF CONTENTSCHAPTERCHAPTERIII------------ —-.-——--——.VI’MWI’J.UNAL PIWJCEDURES PAGE1. General ------------------------------------------------ I2. Data Sources ------------------------------------------- 13. Communications ----------------------------------------- 14. Analyses ----------------------------------------------- 25. Forecast Aids ------------------------------------------ 26. Forecasting Procedures --------------------------------- 2-J. Warnings ----------------------------------------------- 38. Prognostic Reasoning Messages -------------------------- 49. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert ----------------------- 410. Significant Tropical Weather Advisory ------------------ 4RECONNAISSANCE AND FIXES1-. General ------------------------------------------------ 52. Reconnaissance Availability ---------------------------- 53. Aircraft Reconnaissance Summary ------------------------ 54. Satellite Reconnaissance Summary ----------------------- 65. Radar Reconnaissance Summary ___________________________ 76. Tropical Cyclone Fix Data ------------------------------ 7CHAPTERIIISUMMARY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES1. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones ---------------- 11TROPICAL CYCLONE(Olw) TS VERNON(02W) TS WYNNE(03W) TY ALEX(04W) TS BETTY(05W) TY CARY(06W) TY DINAH(07W) TY ED(C18W) TS FREDA(09W) TD 09W(1OW)(llW)TS GERALDTY HOLLY(12W) TD 12W(13W) TY IKE(14W)(15W)TS JUNETY KELLYAUTHORINDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONESEDITOR : LT WIRFELPA&’SHERMAN ----- 16GARNER ------ 18OLDER ------- 22COLUMBUS ---- 26WIRFEL ------ 30SHERMAN ----- 34GARNER ------ 38OLDER ------- 40COLUMBUS ---- 44WIRFEL ------ 46GI’LFORD----- 50GUNZELMAN --- 54SHERMAN ----- 58GARNER ------’ 62OLDER ------- 66TROPICAL CYCLONE(16W)(17W)TS LYNNTS MAURY(18W) TS NINA(19W) TY OGDEN(20W) TY PHYLLIS(21W) TS ROY(22W) TS SUSAN(23W) TD 23W(24W)(25W)TY THADSTY VANESSA(26W) TY WARREN(27w) TY AGNES(28w) STY BILL(29w) TY CLARA(30W) TY DOYLEAUTHORPAGECOLUMEUS ------GILFORD -------70WIRFEL --------GUNZELNAN -----%80GARNER -------- 84SHERMAN -------OLDER --------- !!;COLUMBUS ------ 96WIRFEL -------- 98GILFORD ------- 102GUNZELMAN ----- 106GARNER -------- 110SHERMAN ------- 114OLDER --------- 122COLUMEUS ------ 1262. North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones ------------------ 130TROPICALCYCLONE(OIA) TC OIA(02B) TC 02BINDIVIDUAL TROPICALCYCLONESAUTHOR PAGE TROPICAL CYCLONEGARNER ----- 134 (03B) TC 03BSHERNAN ---- 136 (04B) TC 04BAUTHORPAGEOLDER --------- 138COLUMBUS ------ 142CHAPTERIVSUMMARY OF FORECAST VERIFICATION1. Annual Forecast Verification -------------------------- 1472. Comparison of Objective Techniques -------------------- 152Iv
CHAPTER VAPPLIED TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH SUMMARY PAGENAVENVPREDRSCHFAC -------------------------------------- 156The Navy Two-Way Interactive Nested TropicalCyclone Model (NTCM)Tropical Cyclone Synoptic Analysis Display SystemTropical Cyclone Objective Decision-TreeAidForecastingJTWC ClimatologicalData SetA Statistical Method for 1 to 3 Day TropicalCyclone Track PredictionTropicalCyclone Haven StudiesNavy Tactical Applications Guide (MTAG), Vol 6Statistical Tropical Cyclone ForecastingFor The Soubhern HemisphereAidsSatellite Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastsCharacteristics of North Indian Ocean TropicalCyclone ActivityTropical Cyclone Readiness Condition Setting ProgramANNEX ATROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND FIX DATA1. Western North Pacific Cyclone Data --------------------- 1592. North Indian Ocean Cyclone Data ------------------------ 208APPENDIXI. Contractions ------------------------------------------- 213II. Definitions -------------------------------------------- 215III. Names for Tropical Cyclones ---------------------------- 216IV. References --------------------------------------------- 217v. Past Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports ‘------------------ 218DISTRIBUTION ---------------- ------------------------- ------------------------ 219v
Page 1 and 2: 1984ANNUAL TROPICALi CYCLONEREPORT1
Page 3 and 4: U,S, NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHY COMMAND CEN
Page 5: FOREWARDThe Annual Tropical Cyclone
Page 9 and 10: outes the large volume of meteorolo
Page 11 and 12: 8. PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGESFor
Page 13 and 14: 4.SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE SUMMARYT
Page 15 and 16: TABLE 2-4. FIX PLATFORN SUNNARY FOR
Page 17 and 18: platform (land, aircraft, or ship)
Page 19 and 20: TABLE 3-2.1984 SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
Page 21 and 22: +-s+ +n‘1” L’1 . 1’ .!”.h
Page 23 and 24: t-iilI ,’+“ 3’++ , +*2Itillml
Page 25 and 26: ,. -.. ..- .,. ,.-...- ... ., ,.,-
Page 27 and 28: F@#LIZ 3-02-2. Wgnneab a 50 kt (26
Page 29 and 30: .-TYPHOONALEXBEST TRACK TC-03W -01
Page 31 and 32: F@Uu? 3-03-3. Akd-tt.opobph&c ff&W
Page 33 and 34: ,., . 1 -.. :..,, . /d.. :,, .. . -
Page 35 and 36: Aircraft reconnaissance flights on
Page 37 and 38: —$ v: / -f L I I I ) i I I I , ,
Page 39 and 40: Between 0000Z on the 9th and 1200z
Page 41 and 42: 0[CJ3ilSSl ONINilVM lSV1 ~a3flSSl !
Page 43 and 44: i’nthe northwest quadrant of Dina
Page 45 and 46: ,!!1,,,,1,TYPHOONEDBEST TRACK TC-07
Page 48 and 49: TROPICA.LSTORM FREDA(08w)Tropical S
Page 50 and 51: F.igum 3-08-3. Tz.Op.id .$tozm FJLe
Page 52 and 53: TROPICAL DEPRESSION(09W)Tropical De
Page 54: TROPICAL STORM GERALD(1OW)Tropical
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!,, ,, ,,, ,, ,,TYPHOONHOLLYBEST TR
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Figure 3-ii-2 shows the wind fIeIda
Page 62:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION(12W)Tropical De
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t“1’””# IL”a3nssl s3NINUV
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This change in track was due to the
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..——w.,.. - . . .- -., . . L! .
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At the time of the first warning,Tr
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k’ 125° 130” 135° 140° 145
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Fi.gLuLe3-15-2. /ii.d--!CV& tipObpk
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,..‘“!::$:”:::b::t::t:::h.:7P
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TROPICAJ_ISTORM MAURY(17W)During a
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At 301200z, Maury was approximately
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TROPICALSTORN NINA(18W)Tropical Sto
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Between 3006002 and 3018002, the lo
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TYPHOON OGDEN(19W)Typhoon Ogden was
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The ARWO also verified that extratr
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TYPHOON PHYLLIS(20W)Typhoon Phyllis
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As Phyllis passed north of 25N, the
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TROPICAL STORM ROY (21W)Tropical St
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As it turned out, these would be th
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TROPICAL STORM SUSAN (22W)Tropical
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transited up the Mekong Valley. Eve
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION(23W)Tropical De
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TYPHOON THAI) (24W)Typhoon Thad dev
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(a)(c)F.igtie3-24-2. Th.tte view o~
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SUPER TYPHOON VANESSA(25W)Super Typ
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The only significant damage on Guam
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TYPHOON WARREN(26W)Typhoon Warren w
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Other coastal areas and marineinter
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TYPHOQN AGNES(27w)Typhoon Agnes was
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Figuze 3-27-2. TyphoonAgnebat 100kZ
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18*+x+++\,,+++%+ \+ + +++\+X-* . ,+
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forecast to pass less than 30 nrn (
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F.igoAe3-2g-4. i3W emt od Luzonab i
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Figuzt 3-2~-7. Tgphoon C.&zIUZ acee
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From this point on, Clara was a wel
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ii‘:,;f’-(-$!l$j*; ,;~~:, ..,..
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convection near the center of the d
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2. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCL
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40” 45°30”coJO 55°60” 65°
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~o..~GjO‘5°Jo 55° 60° 65° 70
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(9 L-Z M3N) 29/000” 05+3 .06.% I
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Since Tropical Cyclone 03B was firm
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DTG2806Z2812z2818Z2900Z2906Z2912Z29
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During the next 48 hours, TropicalC
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10NAUTICAL MILE ERROR9Figure4-2aI,I
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ANNUAL MEAN FORECAST ERRORS (NM) FO
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“b.North Indian OceanThe position
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2. COMPARISON OF OBJECTWE TECHNIQUE
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= 492 317227 0m459 215 472 L602.283
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CHAPTER V - APPLIED TROPICAL CYCLON
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TROPICAL CYCLONE READINESS CONDITIO
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xss7 TRncK WIRNINGPOSIT,?0,5 135.12
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EEElBEST TRACK UhRNING 24 HOUR FO!?
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POS 1714.7 1Z6.314.5 1z5, L314.6 12
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TVPHOON CARYBEST TRRCK D6TA*LL F~qm
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BESTTRI? CKPOS1 T21,0 162,2Z1.0 161
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BEST TRACK WM?NINGPOSIT28 0 13s,127
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;:; 311700 32.8N 120.7E LIIND3es4 i
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FILL FORECRSTSURNG $;&R ~~;:R 72;:R
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fil RcRfiFT FIXESF1!:POSITIONFLTL V
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+ ++++++ ++++++++++++- . . . . . .
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BESTTRA(POSIT19.1 142.719,5 141.819
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56:;5.960616e63x :;6667686970x 7;73
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MO/DR/HR0828ee2e8&!806z082812208281
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BEST TRflCK IJARNINGPOSIT18,6 115.7
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EEEiiElBEST TROCK URRNING 24 HOUR F
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EiElBEST TRRCK WQRNINGPOSIT WIND PO
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BEsr 7RIICK UC+RNING 24 HOuR F0REc~
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OEST TRFICK IWRNINGPOSIT8.7 1s0,19.
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75;;z:80al828384858887::9091::94;29
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6465666768697071x ;;757677767960818
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%67::;;7.273747s7677787980818283848
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.-..,..-=.- ..7 .PCN 3PCN 4PCN 3PCN
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EEiEilBEST TRQCK WI%RNINGPOSIT5.4 1
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8EST TR.4 CKUfiRNING24 HOUR FORECeS
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2. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN CYCLONEBEST T
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~&WQ&~R1 10s062i10912z1109I8Zl11000
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e3L3609@311040311@5031339e317@90323
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NEPRFNESSNaval Environmental Predic
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APPENDIXIllNAMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLO
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APPENDIXPAST ANNUAL TROPICAL CYCLON
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UNCLASSIFIED;ECURITY CLASSIFICATION
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w*Taopicd Cydlone 30S (KarniAg) on
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