THINK ACT

LOOKING FORWARD
Simple questions are often difficult to answer. What is here to stay,
and what’s next? THINK ACT asks some of the world’s leading futurologists
What is here to stay?
The laws of thermodynamics
The first law of thermodynamics states that all energy in
the universe is constant, that it cannot be created or destroyed;
only its form can change. The second law states
that energy can only be changed in one direction, that is,
from usable to unusable, from available to unavailable, or
from ordered to disordered. Everything in the universe,
according to the second law, began as available concentrated
energy and is being transformed over time to unavailable,
dispersed energy. Entropy is the measure of the extent to
which available energy in any subsystem of the universe is
transformed into an unavailable form.
Societies are organized and maintained by
converting the available energy from the
environment into energy to sustain human
existence.
Every great economic era is marked by
the introduction of a new energy regime.
In the beginning, the extraction, processing,
and distribution of the new energy are
expensive. Technological advances and
economies of scale reduce the costs and
increase the energy flow until the onceabundant
energy becomes increasingly
scarce and the entropy bill from past
energy conversion begins to accumulate.
The oil era followed this curve over the
course of the twentieth century, peaking
in 2006.
Most economists fail to understand that
all economic activity is borrowing against
Nature’s energy and material reserves. If
that borrowing draws down Nature’s
bounty faster than the biosphere can recycle
the waste and replenish the stock, the
accumulation of entropic debt will eventually
collapse whatever economic regime
is harnessing the resources.
Jeremy Rifkin
Jeremy Rifkin
Biography
he teaches at the Wharton School’s
executive education program. His
forthcoming book is ‘The Third
Industrial Revolution: How Lateral
Power is Transforming the Economy
and Changing the World’.
What’s next?
The Third Industrial Revolution
Our industrial civilization is at a crossroads. Oil and the other
fossil fuel energies that make up the industrial way of life are sunsetting,
and the technologies made from and propelled by these
energies are antiquated. The entire industrial infrastructure
built on the back of fossil fuels is aging and in disrepair. Worse,
climate change from fossil fuel–based industrial activity looms
ominously on the horizon. Our scientists warn that we face a
potentially cataclysmic change in the temperature and chemistry
of the planet, which threatens to destabilize ecosystems around
the world. It is becoming increasingly clear that we need a new
economic narrative that can take us into a
more equitable and sustainable future.
The great economic transformations in
history occur when new communication technology
converges with new energy systems.
The new forms of communication become
the medium for organizing and managing
the more complex civilizations made possible
by the new sources of energy.
Today, we are on the cusp of a new convergence
of communication technology and
energy regimes. Internet technology and renewable
energy are merging to create a powerful
“Third Industrial Revolution” that will
change the way we work and live in the 21st
century. In the coming era hundreds of millions
of people will produce their own green
energy in their homes, offices, and factories,
and share it with each other using an “energy
Internet,” just like we now create and share
information online.
The Third Industrial Revolution infrastructure
will create thousands of businesses
and millions of jobs. This revolution will usher
in a new economic age which will bring with
it a fundamental reordering of human relationships
– from hierarchical to lateral power.
66 THINK ACT SEPTEMBER 2011
Illustration: Frank Hoppmann