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LOOKING FORWARD Simple questions are often difficult to answer. What is here to stay, and what’s next? THINK ACT asks some of the world’s leading futurologists What is here to stay? The laws of thermodynamics The first law of thermodynamics states that all energy in the universe is constant, that it cannot be created or destroyed; only its form can change. The second law states that energy can only be changed in one direction, that is, from usable to unusable, from available to unavailable, or from ordered to disordered. Everything in the universe, according to the second law, began as available concentrated energy and is being transformed over time to unavailable, dispersed energy. Entropy is the measure of the extent to which available energy in any subsystem of the universe is transformed into an unavailable form. Societies are organized and maintained by converting the available energy from the environment into energy to sustain human existence. Every great economic era is marked by the introduction of a new energy regime. In the beginning, the extraction, processing, and distribution of the new energy are expensive. Technological advances and economies of scale reduce the costs and increase the energy flow until the onceabundant energy becomes increasingly scarce and the entropy bill from past energy conversion begins to accumulate. The oil era followed this curve over the course of the twentieth century, peaking in 2006. Most economists fail to understand that all economic activity is borrowing against Nature’s energy and material reserves. If that borrowing draws down Nature’s bounty faster than the biosphere can recycle the waste and replenish the stock, the accumulation of entropic debt will eventually collapse whatever economic regime is harnessing the resources. Jeremy Rifkin Jeremy Rifkin Biography he teaches at the Wharton School’s executive education program. His forthcoming book is ‘The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power is Transforming the Economy and Changing the World’. What’s next? The Third Industrial Revolution Our industrial civilization is at a crossroads. Oil and the other fossil fuel energies that make up the industrial way of life are sunsetting, and the technologies made from and propelled by these energies are antiquated. The entire industrial infrastructure built on the back of fossil fuels is aging and in disrepair. Worse, climate change from fossil fuel–based industrial activity looms ominously on the horizon. Our scientists warn that we face a potentially cataclysmic change in the temperature and chemistry of the planet, which threatens to destabilize ecosystems around the world. It is becoming increasingly clear that we need a new economic narrative that can take us into a more equitable and sustainable future. The great economic transformations in history occur when new communication technology converges with new energy systems. The new forms of communication become the medium for organizing and managing the more complex civilizations made possible by the new sources of energy. Today, we are on the cusp of a new convergence of communication technology and energy regimes. Internet technology and renewable energy are merging to create a powerful “Third Industrial Revolution” that will change the way we work and live in the 21st century. In the coming era hundreds of millions of people will produce their own green energy in their homes, offices, and factories, and share it with each other using an “energy Internet,” just like we now create and share information online. The Third Industrial Revolution infrastructure will create thousands of businesses and millions of jobs. This revolution will usher in a new economic age which will bring with it a fundamental reordering of human relationships – from hierarchical to lateral power. 66 THINK ACT SEPTEMBER 2011 Illustration: Frank Hoppmann
Imprint PUBLISHER Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH High Light Towers, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Str.6 D-80807 München, tel.: +49 (0) 89-9230-0 DIRECTOR Dr. Katherine Nölling EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD Roland Berger Strategy Consultants PUBLISHING COMPANY Axel Springer AG Axel-Springer-Str. 65, 10888 Berlin, Germany Tel: +49 (0)30 2591-74718 Fax: +49 (0)30 2591-74710 newbusiness@axelspringer.de www.axelspringer.de MANAGEMENT (NEW BUSINESS) Frank Parlow, Lutz Thalmann EDITORS Thomas Ramge (Management), Guido Walter AUTHORS Markus Albers, Max Blanchet, Douglas A. Bolduc, Anne Hansen, Hilmar Poganatz, Christian Meier, Nils aus dem Moore, Burkhard Schwenker DESIGN AND PRODUCTION Rethink GmbH Brian O’Connor (Management), Helge Hoffmann, Henrike Noetzold, Andrea Schumacher (Managing Editor), Jana Hallberg, Jennifer Bressler IMAGE EDITING Twentyfour Seven GmbH PRINTER Firmengruppe APPL, aprinta Druck GmbH Senefelderstraße 3-11, 86650 Wemding COPYRIGHT The articles in this magazine are copyright. All rights reserved. NOTICE Opinions expressed in the articles of this magazine do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher. Do you have any questions for the editor or the editorial team? Would you be interested in learning more about studies by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants? Just send an email to: service@think-act.info
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THINK ACT

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