Hydrostrategic Decisionmaking and the Arab ... - Yale University

WOLF 249• The 1979 Litani Operation left Israeli allies in control of thelower Litani river and the Hasbani headwaters.• The 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon included capture ofthe Qirawn Dam and related data. Even after Israel’s withdrawal,the “Security Zone” still leaves Israel in control ofthe area from Taibe and slightly north—the most likely sitefor any Litani to Jordan basin transfer.Particularly during the years of Israeli occupation from 1982 to1985, several analysts used this history to speculate about Israeliactions in Lebanon. Some predicted scenarios ranging from a simplediversion of the 100 MCM/yr available at the lower Litani and othersconjectured a permanent occupation of the entire Beka’a Valleysouth of the Beirut-Damascus Highway which, along with the removalof Lebanese water infrastructure and the forced de-populationof southern Lebanon, would allow diversion of the entire 700MCM/yr flow of the Litani into Israel. 11Others have argued that Israel retains access to the Litanithrough its “security zone” because it is, in fact, covertly divertingwater into the Jordan basin. According to John Cooley, “it was smallwonder that the first Israeli diversion plans for the Litani have comeinto being” (cited in Soffer 1991). More recently, Beaumont (1994),has written that Israel “may well be stealing Lebanese water for itsown use.” Frey and Naff (1985), even while arguing against theimperative theory, do suggest that:11This last scenario is described in detail inStauffer (1982).Although water may not have been the prime impetus behindthe Israeli acquisition of territory...it seems perhaps the mainfactor determining its retention of that territory.Thomas Naff of the University of Pennsylvania later testified toCongress that “...Israel is presently conducting a large-scale operationof trucking water to Israel from the Litani River...” (U.S. Houseof Representatives 1990). Naff (1992) has since modified his positionto argue that “water ... was instead trucked to units of the Israeli-supportedLebanese Army of South Lebanon in the same areaas a reward for their cooperation.”Beaumont (1991) is among those who, building retroactively onthe charges regarding Lebanon, now include the 1967 war as proofof water driving Israel’s territorial “imperative:”To avoid each of the states (Lebanon and Syria) controllingtheir own water resources, Israel invaded southernLebanon and the Golan Heights of Syria in 1967. TheYALE F&ES BULLETIN