Hydrostrategic Decisionmaking and the Arab ... - Yale University

262 MIDDLE EASTERN NATURAL ENVIRONMENTSdemography and politics, the “heritage dimension,” the “historicdimension;” Hebron; Israeli Arabs and the danger of irredentism;“the economic dimension;” and the need to straighten the borderline.Alpher relies on the unpublished Jaffee Center report of 1991described above for his description of hydrostrategic territory. 18 Hedelineates West Bank territory which might be annexed to Israel inorder to protect the Western sub-basin of the Mountain Aquifer, asdefined first as Cantor’s “Red Line”—the westernmost section of thenorthern lobe of the West Bank, and a region around Jerusalem.Alpher notes that, while annexation would guarantee Israelicontrol of water resources, adequate supervision and control arrangementsare possible without annexation—perhaps through theimplementation of a joint water regime. He also points out that theterritories of the West Bank which are vital for continued controlover water management have already been heavily settled because oftheir importance with regard to security. Thus, he concludes:18Alpher was director of the Jaffee Centerwhen it commissioned the 1991 study....the water issue is not necessarily a decisive rationale forannexation. At the same time, to the extent that the waterissue is juxtaposed geographically with additional vital issuessuch as security and demography, then it may be seen tofurther enhance an annexation solution.Alpher finally seems to weigh in against annexation. In his finalmap incorporating all of the parameters he defines as crucial, noterritory which was identified as being important for water alone isslated for annexation.Bilateral and Multilateral Negotiations 19The Gulf War in 1990 and the collapse of the Soviet Unioncaused a re-alignment of political alliances in the Mideast whichfinally made possible the first public face-to-face peace talks betweenArabs and Israelis, in Madrid on October 30, 1991. During the bilateralnegotiations between Israel and each of its neighbors, it wasagreed that a second track be established for multilateral negotiationson five subjects deemed “regional,” including water resources.These two mutually reinforcing tracks—the bilateral and multilateral—haveled, at this writing, to a treaty of peace between Israel andJordan and a declaration of principles for agreement between Israeland the Palestinian Authority. Both have had a water component interms of allocations and projects, but in neither has water had influenceon the discussions over final boundaries.19For a more detailed accounting of theagreements between Israel and Jordan thePalestinian Authority, see the text of thewater components of the Israel-Jordantreaty and Oslo II, pp. 284-296 andShamir’s commentary, this volume.BULLETIN 103