47881_Budget_2015_Web_Accessible

Fiscal forecast1.57 As set out in Table 1.3, from its post-war peak of 10.2% of GDP in 2009-10, the OBRforecasts public sector net borrowing will fall in each year of the forecast period, to: 41••5.0% of GDP in 2014-15••4.0% of GDP in 2015-16, the final year for which the government has set departmentalspending plans••a surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2018-19, increasing to 0.3% of GDP in 2019-201.58 Public sector net debt is forecast to peak at 80.4% of GDP in 2014-15, the same level asat Autumn Statement 2014, before falling each year and reaching 71.6% of GDP in 2019-20.In 2015-16 public sector net debt is forecast to be 80.2% of GDP, 0.2 percentage points lowerthan 2014-15.Table 1.3: Overview of the OBR’s central fiscal forecast% GDP, unless otherwise statedOutturnForecast2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20Fiscal mandateCyclically-adjusted current budget deficit 2.6 2.5 2.1 0.4 -0.8 -1.7 -1.7DeficitPublic sector net borrowing 5.6 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.6 -0.2 -0.3Public sector net borrowing (£ billion) 97.3 90.2 75.3 39.4 12.8 -5.2 -7.0Cyclically-adjusted net borrowing 4.1 4.2 3.7 1.9 0.6 -0.3 -0.3Current budget deficit 4.1 3.3 2.4 0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.7Primary balance -3.8 -3.4 -2.5 -0.3 1.3 2.1 2.1Cyclically-adjusted primary balance -2.3 -2.7 -2.2 -0.1 1.3 2.1 2.1Treaty deficit 1 5.8 5.2 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.0 -0.1Cyclically-adjusted Treaty deficit 4.2 4.4 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.0 -0.1DebtPublic sector net debt 2 79.1 80.4 80.2 79.8 77.8 74.8 71.6Treaty debt 3 87.9 88.4 89.7 89.7 88.2 85.7 82.8Memo: Output gap -2.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0Memo: total policy decisions 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01General government net borrowing on a Maastricht basis.2Debt at end March; GDP centred on end March.3General government gross debt on a Maastricht basis.4Equivalent to the 'Total policy decisions' line in Table 2.1.Source: Office for National Statistics, Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury calculations.1.59 The OBR’s March 2015 ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ includes a comparison of key fiscalaggregates to Autumn Statement 2014. Public sector net borrowing is forecast to be £7.2billion lower in 2014-15 than in 2013-14, and it continues to fall year on year throughout theforecast period. Public sector net debt has been revised down relative to Autumn Statement2014 from 2015-16 onwards in both cash terms and as a share of GDP. By the end of theforecast period, public sector net debt is forecast to be 71.6% of GDP, 1.2 percentage pointslower than forecast at Autumn Statement 2014.41‘Public Sector Finances’, ONS, January 2015.22 Budget 2015