47881_Budget_2015_Web_Accessible

Table 1.4: Comparison of key fiscal aggregates to Autumn Statement 2014% GDP, unless otherwise statedOutturnForecast2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20Public sector net borrowing (£ billion)Budget 2015 97.3 90.2 75.3 39.4 12.8 -5.2 -7.0Autumn Statement 2014 97.5 91.3 75.9 40.9 14.5 -4.0 -23.1Change compared to Autumn Statement -0.2 -1.1 -0.7 -1.5 -1.8 -1.2 16.1Public sector net debtBudget 2015 79.1 80.4 80.2 79.8 77.8 74.8 71.6Autumn Statement 2014 78.8 80.4 81.1 80.7 78.8 76.2 72.8Change compared to Autumn Statement 0.3 0.0 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.4 -1.2Cyclically-adjusted current budget deficitBudget 2015 2.6 2.5 2.1 0.4 -0.8 -1.7 -1.7Autumn Statement 2014 2.6 2.7 2.2 0.5 -0.7 -1.5 -2.3Change compared to Autumn Statement 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.5Source: Office for National Statistics and Office for Budget Responsibility.Performance against the fiscal mandate1.60 The government’s fiscal strategy is underpinned by a forward-looking mandate, asupdated in the Charter for Budget Responsibility approved by Parliament on 13 January 2015, toachieve a cyclically-adjusted current balance in the third year of a rolling 5-year forecast period. 421.61 The OBR’s March 2015 ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’ confirms the government is oncourse to meet the fiscal mandate in the third year of the forecast period, 2017-18. The OBR’sjudgement is that the government’s policies are consistent with roughly a 65% chance ofachieving the fiscal mandate in 2017-18. Chart 1.6 shows the government’s performanceagainst its fiscal mandate.1.62 The government’s fiscal mandate is supplemented by an aim for public sector net debt asa percentage of GDP to be falling at a fixed date of 2016-17. As set out in Chart 1.7, the OBRforecasts that the supplementary debt aim will be met a year early, with debt falling by 0.2%of GDP between 2014-15 and 2015-16. Public sector net debt falls by 0.4% of GDP between2015-16 and 2016-17.1.63 Public sector net debt is forecast to peak in 2014-15 as a share of GDP, before falling from2015-16 and thereafter across the forecast horizon. This is the first time debt has been forecastto fall as a share of GDP in the coming year since Budget 2002. The government is forecast tomeet the target for debt to be falling as a share of GDP by the end of 2015-16, as set out in theJune Budget 2010.42‘Charter for Budget Responsibility: Autumn Statement 2014 update’, HM Treasury, December 2014.Budget 201523