1.2 Purpose of this waste assessment - Waikato District Council

A.2.0 Factors affectingfuture demandA.2.1A.2.1.1Population and household growthPopulation growthThe district has changed significantly since the expansion of the boundary to the north. Previous predictionswere that the population of the district would increase by 97 per cent by 2061 17 . Estimates for the district’spopulation prior to the boundary changes are shown below.EstimatedpopulationNov 2010boundaries2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201054,100 55,400 56,600 57,700 58,700 59,900 60,700 61,800 62,800 63,800Growth (%) 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6%EstimatedpopulationJune 2010boundariesSource: www.stats.govt.nz, subnational population estimates45,400 47,600 48,300Statistics New Zealand has updated its population estimates to reflect the 1 November 2010 boundarychanges. This shows an estimated increase in population following the boundary changes of 15,500.Despite uncertainties around the current population and predicted growth in the district, it is very likely thatgrowth will continue, and current indications are that this growth will accelerate over the next 20 years.Analysis by the council in partnership with the University of Waikato have resulted in the predictions forpopulation shown below.Table 21: Forecasted district populationEstimated populationNov 2010 boundaries2009 2010 2011 2012 2021 2022 203162,800 63,800 64,066 65,081 75,740 76,997 86,982Growth (%) 1.6% 1.6% 0.42% 1.6%Estimated populationJune 2010 boundariesSource: Waikato District Council47,600 48,30016.4%(tenyears)1.7%13.0%(nineyears)The ethnic makeup of the district is unlikely to change significantly following the boundary changes. In 2009, thedistrict’s population was 69 per cent European (compared to 67.6 per cent across New Zealand) and 25.9 percent Maori (14.6 per cent across New Zealand). The remainder were of Pacific and Asian origin.17 Based on 2006 statistics NZ figuresWaikato District Council waste assessment 201153