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Northland Civil Defence Emergency Management Plan, 2010

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DROUGHTSOverviewA drought can be defined as an:‘agricultural drought’ where there is soil moisture deficit which impacts on agriculturaland horticultural industries, and/or‘water supply’ drought which results in a water supply shortage.Dry periods in <strong>Northland</strong> normally occur for 3-4 months from November/December toMarch/April and are influenced by El Nino cycles and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).<strong>Northland</strong> experiences two types of drought, regional and localised drought, with droughtstending to be more severe at east coast locations and in sheltered inland areas. <strong>Northland</strong>has experienced a number of droughts in the last 100 years each with very different spatialand temporal characteristics with the worst drought being recorded in 1914-15 and thesecond most severe drought in 1982-1983. The drought in 1982 was assessed as 1:40 yearsand resulted in water restrictions in Whangarei, severe pasture damage and loss of dairyproductivity.HazardLikelihood(B/C)HazardConsequence(2)<strong>Northland</strong> experiences a minor regional drought on average once every three years at eastcoastal and inland locations and once every four years at west coastal and high altitudelocations. Droughts can be forecast against the IPO and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) cycles.Social:Inadequate water supply is unlikely to result in loss of life directly, although healthproblems could result. Families in rural communities may need to buy in water to topup tanks. Communities on town supplies may have to ration water.Built-Economic:Drought has the potential for large farming and crop losses in the district. Financialhardship for farmers required to reduce stock numbers, move stock to non-droughtaffected areas, buy in stock feed and water, or who face large crop losses. Back-tobackdrought events may result in the abandonment of traditional agriculturalactivities that may no longer be sustainable in the region.The worst case scenario would be failure of water supply to the Refinery (which cannotoperate without mains water supply) but this is very unlikely.Natural:How do wemanage thisrisk?What moreshould we bedoing?Lower river levels can pose a hazard to river biota, increase chances of algal blooms,and increase the chance of toxic contamination due to the lack of dilution ofpollutants. Low soil moisture can slow growth of crops and fruit.<strong>Plan</strong>ning of water storage (both rural and town supply).Development of a Rural Support Trust to specifically provide for the response andrecovery activities in the rural sector.Farm management practices.Study of climate change affects would be useful for long-term water supply planning.What is thefuture risk?Climate change may exacerbate periods of drought.<strong>Northland</strong> <strong>Civil</strong> <strong>Defence</strong> <strong>Emergency</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>, <strong>2010</strong>-2015 Page 80

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