Economic Diversification and Growth
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Contents<br />
Acknowledgments<br />
The World Bank greatly appreciates the close collaboration<br />
with the Government of Ug<strong>and</strong>a (the National CEM<br />
Task Force led by the Ministry of Finance, Planning <strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>Economic</strong> Development, in particular) in the preparation<br />
of this report, requested by senior government officials.<br />
The report was prepared by a team led by Jean-Pascal N.<br />
Nganou (Senior Country Economist <strong>and</strong> Lead Author,<br />
Macroeconomic <strong>and</strong> Fiscal Management, MFM). It draws<br />
upon a series of background papers commissioned for the<br />
study, including:<br />
1. Thorvaldur Gylfason <strong>and</strong> Jean-Pascal Nganou<br />
(2014): <strong>Diversification</strong>, Dutch Disease, <strong>and</strong> <strong>Economic</strong><br />
<strong>Growth</strong>: Options for Ug<strong>and</strong>a, Chapters 1 <strong>and</strong> 5.<br />
2. John Matovu <strong>and</strong> Jean-Pascal Nganou (2014): Fiscal<br />
Policy Stance <strong>and</strong> Oil Revenues, <strong>Growth</strong> <strong>and</strong> Social<br />
Outcomes for Ug<strong>and</strong>a, Chapter 4.<br />
3. Pierre-Richard Agenor <strong>and</strong> Jean-Pascal Nganou<br />
(2013): Expenditure Allocation <strong>and</strong> <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Growth</strong><br />
in Ug<strong>and</strong>a: An OLG Framework, Chapter 4.<br />
4. Jean-Pascal N. Nganou, Juste Some, <strong>and</strong> Guy<br />
Tchuente (2014): <strong>Growth</strong>, Institutions <strong>and</strong> Foreign<br />
Direct Investments in Developing Countries, Chapter<br />
4.<br />
5. Andreas Eberhard, Willy Rwamparagi Kagarura,<br />
<strong>and</strong> Jean-Pascal Nganou (2014): Ug<strong>and</strong>a:<br />
Transforming Natural Resources Wealth into Longterm<br />
Development-A Wealth Accounting Approach,<br />
Chapter 4.<br />
6. Jean-Pascal Nganou, Juste Some, <strong>and</strong> Guy Tchuente<br />
(2014): Government Spending Multipliers in Natural<br />
Resource-Rich Developing Countries, Chapter 4.<br />
7. Vincent Belinga, Maximillien Kaffo Melou, <strong>and</strong><br />
Jean-Pascal Nganou (2014): Analysis of the Oil<br />
<strong>and</strong> non-Oil Government Revenues Nexus: Policy<br />
Lessons for Ug<strong>and</strong>a, Chapters 2 <strong>and</strong> 4.<br />
8. Paulina Aguinaga, Charles Ncho-Oguie, <strong>and</strong><br />
Jean-Pascal Nganou (2014): Review of Oil-Price<br />
Subsidies: Lessons for Ug<strong>and</strong>a, Chapter 2.<br />
9. Alex<strong>and</strong>re Kopoin, Jean-Pascal Nganou, Fulbert<br />
T. Tchana, <strong>and</strong> Albert G. Zeufack (2014): Public<br />
Investment, Natural Resource inflows <strong>and</strong> Fiscal<br />
Responses: A DSGE Analysis with Evidence from<br />
Ug<strong>and</strong>a, Chapters 4 <strong>and</strong> 5.<br />
10. Sam Wills <strong>and</strong> Rick van der Ploeg (2014): Monetary<br />
Union <strong>and</strong> East Africa’s Resource Wealth, Chapter 7.<br />
11. Rick van der Ploeg <strong>and</strong> Sam Wills (2014): Genuine<br />
Saving in East Africa: Guidelines for exploiting<br />
Natural Resource Wealth, Chapter 7.<br />
12. Ch<strong>and</strong>ra V<strong>and</strong>ana, Ying Li, <strong>and</strong> Rachel Sebudde<br />
(2015): Ug<strong>and</strong>a’s <strong>Diversification</strong>: from farm-to-firm<br />
produced exports or farm-to-farm produced exports?,<br />
Chapters 1 <strong>and</strong> 7.<br />
13. Luc Désiré Omgba <strong>and</strong> Vanessa Mugabe (2015):<br />
Natural Resource Charter for an efficient use of oil<br />
resources in Ug<strong>and</strong>a: Building a bridge between the<br />
government <strong>and</strong> the population, Chapter 2 <strong>and</strong> 5.<br />
14. Kenneth Amaeshi <strong>and</strong> Jean-Pascal Nganou (2014):<br />
Sustainable Development of the Oil <strong>and</strong> Gas Sector in<br />
Ug<strong>and</strong>a: The role of Corporate Social Responsibility<br />
(CSR), Chapter 6.<br />
15. Youssouf Kiendrebeogo <strong>and</strong> Jean-Pascal Nganou<br />
(2014): Firm’s Export, Productivity <strong>and</strong> Investment<br />
Climate in Ug<strong>and</strong>a: Evidence from the Enterprise<br />
Survey, Chapter 6.<br />
16. Rachel Sebudde <strong>and</strong> Faizal Buyinza (2014): Export,<br />
Innovation <strong>and</strong> Firm level Productivity: Evidence<br />
from Manufacturing Firms in Ug<strong>and</strong>a, Chapter 6.<br />
17. Andreas Eberhard, Lawrence Kiiza, <strong>and</strong> Jean-Pascal<br />
Nganou (2014): Prospects of Oil Resources in<br />
Ug<strong>and</strong>a: A Macroeconometric Approach, Chapters 2<br />
<strong>and</strong> 4.<br />
Sincere appreciation goes to our peer reviewers Sebastien<br />
Dessus (Lead Economist <strong>and</strong> Program Leader, AFCW1),<br />
Dr. Jean-Louis Kasekende (Deputy Governor, Bank of<br />
Ug<strong>and</strong>a), An<strong>and</strong> Rajaram (Practice Leader, Governance<br />
Global Practice), Professors Van der Ploeg (Oxford<br />
University), <strong>and</strong> Thorvaldur Gylfason (University of<br />
Icel<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> University of Stockholm).<br />
The team would like to thank Mr. Lawrence Kiiza (Director<br />
of <strong>Economic</strong> Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Planning <strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>Economic</strong> Development) Chairperson of the National<br />
CEM Task Force for the helpful advice <strong>and</strong> Mr. Ernest<br />
Rubondo (Director, Petroleum Production <strong>and</strong> Exploration<br />
Department, Ministry of Energy <strong>and</strong> Mineral Development).<br />
More thanks go to the participants who responded to the<br />
event organized for the Ug<strong>and</strong>an Delegation during the<br />
2014 Spring Meetings where experts from within <strong>and</strong><br />
outside the Bank provided guidance on the overall storyline<br />
<strong>and</strong> the areas for deeper analysis.<br />
xii<br />
Ug<strong>and</strong>a Country <strong>Economic</strong> Memor<strong>and</strong>um: <strong>Economic</strong> <strong>Diversification</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Growth</strong> in the Era of Oil <strong>and</strong> Volatility