Economic Diversification and Growth

Contents
Figures
Figure 1: Export Diversification and Per Capita Income Growth in Oilproducing
Countries.................................................................................xvi
Figure 2: Uganda’s Export Trade..............................................................xvi
Figure 3: Economic Viability of Oil Areas Depending on Future
Barrel Price.............................................................................................. xviii
Figure 4: Impact of Oil Price on Projected Government Petroleum
Revenue.................................................................................................. xviii
Figure 5: Higher Corruption (Less Transparency) in Natural Resource-rich
Countries..................................................................................................xxi
Figure 6: Transparency and Economic Performance in Oil-producing
Countries..................................................................................................xxi
Figure 1.1: GDP Per Capita Growth
(Annual Percent)........................................................................................ 4
Figure 1.2: Real GDP Growth Across
Selected Sectors (Index 2003/04=100).................................................... 4
Figure 1.3: Uganda’s Recent Growth Lower than Long-term Average..... 5
Figure 1.4: Uganda’s Recent Growth lower than Comparators................. 5
Figure 1.5: Structure of Aggregate Supply................................................ 7
Figure 1.6: Sectoral Contribution to GDP.................................................. 7
Figure 1.7: Labor Productivity in Oil-producing ....................................... 8
Nations...................................................................................................... 8
Figure 1.8: Sector Employment in Uganda............................................... 8
Figure 1.9: Taxes Structure (In Percent).................................................... 8
Figure 1.10: Structure of Aggregate Demand.......................................... 10
Figure 1.11: Output Share of Exports (In Percent).................................. 12
Figure 1.12: Sectoral Share of Imports (In Percent)................................. 12
Figure 1.13: Linkage Analysis of Uganda, 2009/10................................. 13
Figure 1.14: Manufacturing Exports and GNI.......................................... 17
Figure 1.15: Export Diversification and GNI............................................. 17
Figure 1.16: Natural Resources and Manufacturing Exports................... 17
Figure 1.17: Natural Resources and Export Diversification..................... 17
Figure 1.18: Uganda’s Traditional Exports Have the Lowest PCI, Its
Manufactured Ones the Highest.............................................................. 20
Figure 1.19: Economic Complexity and GDP Per Capita......................... 21
Figure 1.20: Coffee’s Dominance Had Given Way to Other Products (Raw and
Processed). Traces of Manufactures are Emerging................................. 24
Figure 2.1: Major Oil Producers in the World........................................... 28
Figure 2.2: Projected Oil Production........................................................ 30
Figure 2.3: Economic Viability of Oil Areas Based on Varying Oil Prices.30
Figure 2.4: Sector Contribution to GDP (Percent of Overall GDP)........... 31
Figure 2.5: Impact of Oil Price on Projected Government Petroleum
Revenue (US$ million).............................................................................. 32
Figure 2.6: Source of Government Petroleum Revenue
(at US$ 90 Per Barrel).............................................................................. 32
Figure 2.7: Uganda’s Real GDP Growth Path (With and Without Oil)....... 33
Figure 2.8: Uganda’s Per Capita GDP (With and Without Oil)................. 33
Figure 2.9: Uganda’s Trade Balance (With Oil)........................................ 34
Figure 2.10: Uganda’s Nominal vs. Real Exchange Rate........................ 34
Figure 2.11: An Illustration of the Dutch Disease..................................... 39
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Uganda Country Economic Memorandum: Economic Diversification and Growth in the Era of Oil and Volatility