THE FUTURE OF SEA POWER

The Future of Sea Power |
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challenges faced by states like India. Even less certain are the future growth patterns
for South and Central America and Africa. Despite the potential of these continents, the
constraints on progress are significant.
I will add that there is an emerging tension and that is the cost of the facilities required
for the very big cargo ships, as well as the physical limitations on the ports and harbours
which they can enter. The hub and spoke concept, with a few great entrepots, has its
logic, with feeder ships taking cargoes to smaller ports. However, if smaller hulls can
manage to reduce their own costs through innovative technology, particularly in wind
and solar propulsion, we may see some interesting developments.
One cost-saving innovation which needs to be opposed is the full automation of ships,
which seems to be the subject of examination by more than one major shipping company.
The logic of remote control in terms of reducing expenses (and ending the drudgery of
long sea passages for mariners) is obvious, but such a system would create extraordinary
opportunities for the ill-disposed.
The future of global fisheries is even less clear. The extent of global over-fishing and the
general collapse of many key fish stocks are, in my opinion, yet to be fully acknowledged.
They may vie with increases in sea levels as the greatest global threat to stability in the
populated littorals. There are local and even regional success stories of environmental
management and sustainable exploitation (such as the Baltic), but there are many more
of uncontrolled and devastating damage. There can be no doubt that the inability of
many developing states to manage their own maritime zones combines with the lack of
proper governance of much of the high seas to present a fundamental problem for the
world as a whole. Climate change and environmental degradation - ironically much more
often the result of human action on land than at sea - only worsen the prospect.
The need for collective action on fisheries and maritime environmental management
remains urgent, even if progress has been made in some areas. Indeed, the nature of
that progress - based on consensus and then commitment on the part of many states
- suggests that the drive for collective action has to become a much higher priority. If,
for example, the regulatory effort of the members of the Convention for the Conservation
of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) has achieved a much more sustainable
approach to the exploitation of Patagonian and Antarctic toothfish, it has been the
imposition of global port controls which has seen, at least for the moment, the effective
end of the illegal fishing vessels, epitomised by the scuttling of the Thunder in the South
Atlantic after a chase by the Sea Shepherd environmental group. I will make a side
comment that I regard this effort against what is a form of organised crime as a much
more useful activity by Sea Shepherd than their activities against the Japanese whalers.
Activists need to understand that nationalism remains, however sadly, a much more
powerful motivator than the environment.
But I would also add that more capable states need to redouble their efforts to build
maritime governance capacity in poorer states - and provide it when the challenge is
beyond the reasonable power of a small state. Environmental groups may also have a