THE FUTURE OF SEA POWER

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The Future of Sea Power
Despite the drop in phantom ship frauds, hijackings remain a concern. These attacks
are now generally undertaken for the more straightforward purpose of extorting money,
and it is this style of armed maritime crime that characterised much of the illicit activity
reported off the Horn of Africa between 2005 and 2012. According to a report from the
World Bank, gangs operating in this wider vicinity earned an estimated $400 million in
ransoms during this period. 14 It is true that the tempo of ship seizures in the wider Somali
Basin has declined to near zero in recent years - a trend that reflects more concerted
moves to ‘harden’ vessels transiting the area, better adherence to trip advisories put
out by the IMB, and the deterrent effect of international naval patrols in the Gulf of
Aden. 15 That said, hijackings have increased markedly in Nigeria (18 actual or attempted
boardings took place in 2014 and 14 in 2015), where syndicates have exhibited a capacity
to operate more than 170nm from shore. 16
Dangers Associated With Armed Maritime Crime
There are a number of reasons why the international community should care about
armed maritime crime. In terms of human security, attacks represent a direct threat
to the lives and welfare of the citizens of a variety of flag states. Between 2010 and
2015, 3705 crew were taken hostage or held against their will. Fatalities and injuries
have also been apparent, especially in the Gulf of Guinea and around the Indonesian
archipelago. Overall, 28 people have lost their lives to armed maritime crime since 2010
with a further 279 subjected to some sort of physical injury or mental abuse. 17
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total
Hostage/kidnap 1201 812 611 349 451 290 3705
Killed 8 8 6 1 4 1 28
Violence 61 75 45 32 24 42 279
Table 2: Types of violence committed against ship crews 2010-15 18
Piracy also has a direct economic impact in terms of insurance premiums, ransom
payments, stolen cargoes, delayed trips, naval deployments/mitigation measures,
and prosecutions. According to an estimate from Oceans Beyond Piracy, a dedicated
research project of the One Earth Future Foundation, the combined cost of piracy off
Somalia alone between 2010 and 2012 ran from a low of $19.3 billion to a potential high
of $25 billion. 19
Armed maritime crime attacks additionally have the potential to cause a major
environmental disaster. The ‘nightmare scenario’ is a mid-sea collision between a
pirated unmanned vessel and a petroleum tanker. The resultant discharge of liquid fuel
would not only cause serious damage to offshore resources and marine life, if left to drift
it could seriously erode extended stretches of fertile coastline. 20 Such effects would have
particular significance to any littoral state that relies on the seas as a primary source of
protein for indigenous consumption or regional export. 21 Moreover, if governments are
viewed as ineffective in containing the environmental fall-out, it could act as a trigger