THE FUTURE OF SEA POWER

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The Future of Sea Power
Since the early 1990s, the emphasis in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) had shifted from
deep water open-ocean to the littorals. The use of traditional acoustic detection sensors
is much more complex in the littorals because of the great variations in temperature
and salinity, influx of fresh water, and background noise. Today, detection of a SSK
in shallow waters of an enclosed or semi-enclosed sea endowed with many islands or
archipelagos poses almost insurmountable difficulties. Destroying enemy submarines
was in the past and will remain for the foreseeable future a protracted struggle that
will require disproportionately large resources and time. While the role and importance
of technology cannot, and should never be underestimated, it is very much doubtful
that projected or future technological advances will change the very character of ASW.
Destroying or neutralising hostile quiet conventional submarines in the littorals will
be much harder and more time-consuming than open-ocean ASW against large and
relatively noisy nuclear-powered submarines.
The effectiveness of passive sonar will continue to erode. Submarines will become
quieter. 33 Miniaturised sonar technologies will reduce detection thresholds. 34 A
submarine or UUV could emit sound to drown out its own radiated noise or deploy
decoys to create false targets. Against active sonar, a submarine can use acoustic
jamming similar to airborne electronic warfare systems against radar. 35 The emergence
of non-acoustic techniques show great promise in detecting minute changes on the
ocean surface caused by a submarine or the wake it leaves. 36 Lasers and light emitting
diodes can support non-acoustic ASW by bouncing light off the submarines hull similar
to active sonar. 37
The focus of future ASW research and development will be on sensors over weapons,
and networks over platforms. 38 In network-ASW, acoustic sensors onboard surface ships
and submarines are part of a much wider network of sonars dispersed over a large
geographical area. A group of widely dispersed off-board sensors would operate as a
single sonar system organic to a group of ships rather than an individual platform. 39 The
use of networked-ASW is still largely an unexplored area, and it has been never tested in
combat. One problem with the use of netted sensors is the requirement for a very large
bandwidth due to the need to transmit huge amounts of data to be processed by humans
onboard ASW platforms. Like mine warfare, the success in ASW cannot be ultimately
won without superior technology. Because of its inherent complexity, ASW requires,
as in the past, the employment of all naval combat arms and combat arms/branches of
the other services. It would also require support and participation of other government
agencies, the scientific community, and support of the public.
Success in ASW cannot be ultimately achieved without a high degree of centralisation
at the operational and strategic level of command. Yet, tactical commanders must
be given sufficient freedom to act within the boundaries of the higher commander’s
intent; otherwise, it is not possible to exercise initiative in the course of combat. ASW
also requires the closest degree of cooperation between a navy and the other services.
Air force and in some cases also the army can make a substantial contribution in the
successful struggle with the enemy submarines. ASW cannot just be won by better