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Intermediate Financial Management (with Thomson One)

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Figure 14-1<br />

PART 1. SCENARIO ANALYSIS: PROCEED WITH PROJECT TODAY<br />

FUTURE CASH FLOWS<br />

Now: Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3<br />

$50<br />

High<br />

Average<br />

Low<br />

0.25<br />

0.50<br />

0.25<br />

PART 2. DECISION TREE ANALYSIS: IMPLEMENT NEXT YEAR ONLY IF OPTIMAL<br />

NPV of This<br />

Scenario a<br />

Probability<br />

Notes:<br />

a The WACC is 14 percent.<br />

b The standard deviation is calculated as explained in Chapter 2.<br />

c The coefficient of variation is the standard deviation divided by the expected value.<br />

d The NPV in Part 2 is as of Year 0. Therefore, each of the project cash flows is discounted back one more year than in Part 1.<br />

Probability<br />

× NPV<br />

$33 $33 $33<br />

$26.61 0.25 $6.65<br />

$25<br />

$25 $25<br />

$5 $5 $5<br />

FUTURE CASH FLOWS<br />

Now: Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3<br />

Wait<br />

DCF and Decision Tree Analysis for the Investment Timing Option<br />

(Millions of Dollars)<br />

High<br />

Average<br />

Low<br />

0.25<br />

0.50<br />

0.25<br />

$8.04 0.50 $4.02<br />

$38.39 0.25<br />

1.00<br />

$9.60<br />

Expected value of NPVs = $1.08<br />

Standard deviation b =<br />

Coefficient of variation c =<br />

NPV of This<br />

Scenario d<br />

Probability<br />

$24.02<br />

22.32<br />

Probability<br />

× NPV<br />

$50 $33 $33 $33 $23.35 0.25 $5.84<br />

$50<br />

$25 $25<br />

$0 $0 $0<br />

Year 4<br />

$25<br />

$0<br />

$7.05 0.50 $3.53<br />

$0.00 0.25<br />

1.00<br />

$0.00<br />

Expected value of NPVs = $9.36<br />

Standard deviation b =<br />

Coefficient of variation c =<br />

$8.57<br />

0.92<br />

Chapter 14 Real Options • 485

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