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International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery in an uncertain context

This first edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the continuation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy with a new title, covers 2017 and contains three chapters. The first chapter describes the current international context and the recovery of trade in the region. Chapter II reviews the region’s performance in global trade in services in general and in modern services in particular, since 2005. Chapter III provides an overview of Latin America and the Caribbean’s share of the world agricultural trade since 2000 and offers some policy recommendations for increasing the sector’s contribution to regional development.

This first edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the continuation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy with a new title, covers 2017 and contains three chapters. The first chapter describes the current international context and the recovery of trade in the region. Chapter II reviews the region’s performance in global trade in services in general and in modern services in particular, since 2005. Chapter III provides an overview of Latin America and the Caribbean’s share of the world agricultural trade since 2000 and offers some policy recommendations for increasing the sector’s contribution to regional development.

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Trade</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> • 2017<br />

Chapter II<br />

117<br />

A signific<strong>an</strong>t bottleneck <strong>for</strong> MERCOSUR <strong>in</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g services liberalization objectives<br />

is its members’ weak domestic <strong>in</strong>corporation of agreed rules relat<strong>in</strong>g to services trade,<br />

which prevents some of <strong>the</strong> rules from enter<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to <strong>for</strong>ce (see table II.4). Regional<br />

<strong>in</strong>tegration could be fostered if <strong>the</strong> Pacific Alli<strong>an</strong>ce <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> MERCOSUR work towards<br />

convergence of <strong>the</strong>ir regulations on services trade <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> FDI.<br />

Table II.4<br />

MERCOSUR <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific Alli<strong>an</strong>ce: GATS-plus <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> GATS-extra commitments, 2017<br />

The Pacific Alli<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>in</strong>cludes comparatively more <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> deeper discipl<strong>in</strong>es th<strong>an</strong> MERCOSUR<br />

Deeper commitments<br />

th<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong> GATS-plus<br />

MERCOSUR<br />

Pacific<br />

Alli<strong>an</strong>ce<br />

New discipl<strong>in</strong>es not addressed<br />

<strong>in</strong> GATS-extra<br />

MERCOSUR<br />

Cross-border trade <strong>in</strong> services GATS X Competition measures --- ---<br />

Domestic regulation GATS X Labour market regulation X ---<br />

Recognition X X E-commerce --- X<br />

Localization (presence, residency) GATS X Consumer protection X ---<br />

Tr<strong>an</strong>sparency GATS X Consumer protection <strong>in</strong> e-commerce X X<br />

Telecommunications GATS X Data protection <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> privacy X X<br />

F<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial services GATS X Cross-border tr<strong>an</strong>sfers of <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation --- X<br />

Temporary entry <strong>for</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess persons X --- Localization of comput<strong>in</strong>g facilities --- X<br />

Maritime tr<strong>an</strong>sport GATS X Innovation policies X ---<br />

Air tr<strong>an</strong>sport 1--- --- In<strong>for</strong>mation society --- ---<br />

Air tr<strong>an</strong>sport related services GATS X Research <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> technology --- ---<br />

Professional services X X Express delivery/courier services --- ---<br />

State aids (subsidies) GATS X Audiovisual services X ---<br />

State-owned enterprises <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong><br />

monopolies (<strong>in</strong> services)<br />

GATS GATS Energy (related services) --- ---<br />

Movement of capital GATS X Road freight, tr<strong>an</strong>sport <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> logistics services --- ---<br />

Taxation X X Environmental services --- ---<br />

Education <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g X ---<br />

Regulatory cooperation/ convergence --- X<br />

<strong>Trade</strong>-related <strong>in</strong>vestment<br />

measures (<strong>in</strong> services)<br />

--- X<br />

Investment measures --- X<br />

Services statistics X X<br />

SMEs X X<br />

Pacific<br />

Alli<strong>an</strong>ce<br />

Source: A. Palacio, “Av<strong>an</strong>ces en la gobern<strong>an</strong>za regional del comercio de servicios: los casos de la Ali<strong>an</strong>za del Pacífico y MERCOSUR”, Comercio Internacional series,<br />

S<strong>an</strong>tiago, Economic Commission <strong>for</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (ECLAC), 2017, unpublished.<br />

Note: GATS: <strong>in</strong>corporates only provisions of <strong>the</strong> General Agreement on <strong>Trade</strong> <strong>in</strong> Services; X: <strong>in</strong>corporates some of <strong>the</strong> criteria <strong>for</strong> each discipl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> issue area;<br />

---: no references to this <strong>the</strong>me <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> subregional agreement.<br />

D. Mov<strong>in</strong>g <strong>for</strong>ward<br />

Several f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> recommendations emerge from this chapter. On <strong>the</strong> basis of official<br />

statistics, it concludes that <strong>the</strong> region’s competitiveness <strong>in</strong> trade <strong>in</strong> services stagnated<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> last decade. This per<strong>for</strong>m<strong>an</strong>ce is poor compared to competitors <strong>in</strong> Asia, such as<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a, India <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> ASEAN, which all exp<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong>ed <strong>the</strong>ir market shares subst<strong>an</strong>tially. With<strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> region, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, P<strong>an</strong>ama <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> Peru improved <strong>the</strong>ir global market<br />

share, whereas Chile, <strong>the</strong> Dom<strong>in</strong>ic<strong>an</strong> Republic <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> Mexico lost market share. Moreover,<br />

all <strong>the</strong> subregions, except <strong>for</strong> Central <strong>America</strong>, saw worsen<strong>in</strong>g trade bal<strong>an</strong>ces <strong>in</strong> both<br />

total services <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> modern services dur<strong>in</strong>g this period. The countries that most ga<strong>in</strong>ed<br />

market share <strong>in</strong> modern services <strong>in</strong> this period were Argent<strong>in</strong>a Brazil, Costa Rica <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong><br />

P<strong>an</strong>ama, whereas Chile, Mexico, <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> Peru lost market share.

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