International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery in an uncertain context
This first edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the continuation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy with a new title, covers 2017 and contains three chapters. The first chapter describes the current international context and the recovery of trade in the region. Chapter II reviews the region’s performance in global trade in services in general and in modern services in particular, since 2005. Chapter III provides an overview of Latin America and the Caribbean’s share of the world agricultural trade since 2000 and offers some policy recommendations for increasing the sector’s contribution to regional development.
This first edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the continuation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy with a new title, covers 2017 and contains three chapters. The first chapter describes the current international context and the recovery of trade in the region. Chapter II reviews the region’s performance in global trade in services in general and in modern services in particular, since 2005. Chapter III provides an overview of Latin America and the Caribbean’s share of the world agricultural trade since 2000 and offers some policy recommendations for increasing the sector’s contribution to regional development.
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58 Chapter I<br />
Economic Commission <strong>for</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (ECLAC)<br />
Figure I.13<br />
<strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (selected <strong>in</strong>tegration schemes): <strong>in</strong>traregional trade coefficients,<br />
by exports, J<strong>an</strong>uary-June 2016 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> J<strong>an</strong>uary-June 2017<br />
(Percentages of total goods exports)<br />
Intraregional trade coefficients reflect slight decl<strong>in</strong>es throughout <strong>the</strong> region<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
22.4<br />
21.4<br />
28.1<br />
25.8<br />
15<br />
16.2 15.8<br />
13.1<br />
12.4<br />
10<br />
8.9<br />
7.9<br />
5<br />
0<br />
<strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong><br />
<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong><br />
<strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong><br />
<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong><br />
(exclud<strong>in</strong>g Mexico)<br />
Ande<strong>an</strong><br />
Community<br />
Sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
Common<br />
Market<br />
Central <strong>America</strong>n<br />
Common Market<br />
3.0<br />
2.6<br />
Pacific<br />
Alli<strong>an</strong>ce<br />
5.3 5.2<br />
Mexico to <strong>the</strong> rest<br />
of <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong><br />
<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong><br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
Source: Economic Commission <strong>for</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (ECLAC), on <strong>the</strong> basis of official <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation from central b<strong>an</strong>ks, customs offices <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> national <strong>in</strong>stitutes<br />
of statistics <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> countries.<br />
Table I.9<br />
<strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: variation <strong>in</strong> value of <strong>in</strong>traregional <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>in</strong>trasubregional exports,<br />
by sector <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> by <strong>in</strong>tegration scheme, J<strong>an</strong>uary-June 2017 compared with <strong>the</strong> year-earlier period<br />
(Percentages)<br />
Intraregional trade posted double-digit growth <strong>in</strong> several sectors <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> first half of 2017<br />
Sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
Common Market<br />
Ande<strong>an</strong><br />
Community<br />
Pacific Alli<strong>an</strong>ce<br />
Central <strong>America</strong>n<br />
Common Market<br />
<strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong><br />
Community a<br />
<strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong><br />
All products 9.8 8.2 7.3 1.5 7.7 11.5<br />
Agriculture, hunt<strong>in</strong>g <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> fish<strong>in</strong>g 9.4 -20.9 14.3 4.8 0.5 11.1<br />
Oil <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> m<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g 20.1 64.8 4.5 -14.7 39.9 29.8<br />
Food, beverages <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> tobacco 0.8 1.3 19.3 8.3 -1.5 10.2<br />
Wood, pulp <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> paper -8.3 12.3 10.4 1.2 … -2.9<br />
Textiles, apparel <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> footwear 19.7 6.5 21.0 -15.0 … 3.4<br />
Chemicals <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> pharmaceuticals -5.2 -1.3 1.3 -6.4 -10.2 6.0<br />
Rubber <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> plastic 0.0 -5.0 7.9 3.3 … 0.5<br />
Non-metal m<strong>in</strong>erals -9.3 -7.6 -15.0 10.0 … -10.0<br />
Metals <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> derivatives 17.6 20.0 15.8 8.0 … 10.0<br />
Mach<strong>in</strong>ery <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> equipment 11.2 7.9 11.4 2.8 8.7 4.8<br />
Automobiles 27.5 -17.4 12.8 0.3 … 26.4<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r m<strong>an</strong>ufactures -1.1 -46.8 -30.2 2.2 5.8 -10.7<br />
Source: Economic Commission <strong>for</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (ECLAC), on <strong>the</strong> basis of UN Comtrade-<strong>International</strong> <strong>Trade</strong> Statistics Database (COMTRADE) <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> official<br />
data from <strong>the</strong> countries’ central b<strong>an</strong>ks, customs offices <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> national <strong>in</strong>stitutes of statistics.<br />
a<br />
Data <strong>for</strong> CARICOM are calculated on <strong>the</strong> basis of <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation from <strong>the</strong> Central B<strong>an</strong>k of Belize, B<strong>an</strong>k of Jamaica <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> mirror statistics <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r members of <strong>the</strong> group.
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