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International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery in an uncertain context

This first edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the continuation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy with a new title, covers 2017 and contains three chapters. The first chapter describes the current international context and the recovery of trade in the region. Chapter II reviews the region’s performance in global trade in services in general and in modern services in particular, since 2005. Chapter III provides an overview of Latin America and the Caribbean’s share of the world agricultural trade since 2000 and offers some policy recommendations for increasing the sector’s contribution to regional development.

This first edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the continuation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy with a new title, covers 2017 and contains three chapters. The first chapter describes the current international context and the recovery of trade in the region. Chapter II reviews the region’s performance in global trade in services in general and in modern services in particular, since 2005. Chapter III provides an overview of Latin America and the Caribbean’s share of the world agricultural trade since 2000 and offers some policy recommendations for increasing the sector’s contribution to regional development.

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4 Contents<br />

Economic Commission <strong>for</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (ECLAC)<br />

Tables<br />

Table I.1 Expected impacts of automation <strong>in</strong> employment............................................................................ 40<br />

Table I.2 World, selected regions <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> countries: variation <strong>in</strong> trade <strong>in</strong> goods, J<strong>an</strong>uary to June 2017<br />

compared with J<strong>an</strong>uary to June 2016............................................................................................. 42<br />

Table I.3 World (selected countries): variation <strong>in</strong> trade <strong>in</strong> services by value, J<strong>an</strong>uary to June 2017<br />

compared with J<strong>an</strong>uary to June 2016............................................................................................. 42<br />

Table I.4 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: variations <strong>in</strong> exports of goods <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> services<br />

by value, first half of 2016 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> first half of 2017............................................................................ 43<br />

Table I.5 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: variation <strong>in</strong> trade <strong>in</strong> goods by value <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> trad<strong>in</strong>g partners,<br />

J<strong>an</strong>uary to June 2016 compared with J<strong>an</strong>uary to June 2017......................................................... 44<br />

Table I.6 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: year-on-year variation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> prices of ma<strong>in</strong> export<br />

commodities, J<strong>an</strong>uary to April 2017, J<strong>an</strong>uary to August 2017 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> projection <strong>for</strong> 2017................ 48<br />

Table I.7 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (selected group<strong>in</strong>gs <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> countries): projected variations<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>for</strong>eign trade by price, volume <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> value, 2017.......................................................................... 52<br />

Table I.8 <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> Community (CARICOM): projected variations <strong>in</strong> external trade, 2017.......................... 54<br />

Table I.9 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: variation <strong>in</strong> value of <strong>in</strong>traregional <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>in</strong>trasubregional<br />

exports, by sector <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> by <strong>in</strong>tegration scheme, J<strong>an</strong>uary-June 2017<br />

compared with <strong>the</strong> year-earlier period............................................................................................ 58<br />

Table I.10 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (selected group<strong>in</strong>gs <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> Mexico): tariff protection<br />

<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> tariff equivalents of non-tariff <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> adm<strong>in</strong>istrative barriers applicable<br />

to <strong>in</strong>traregional imports, 2002-2011................................................................................................ 63<br />

Table I.11 Mexico <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> United States: exist<strong>in</strong>g preferences under <strong>the</strong> North <strong>America</strong>n<br />

Free <strong>Trade</strong> Agreement (NAFTA) <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> tariffs applied <strong>in</strong> a scenario<br />

of denunciation of <strong>the</strong> agreement................................................................................................... 64<br />

Table I.12 Mexico: variations <strong>in</strong> imports from <strong>the</strong> United States <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> rest of <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong><br />

<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> <strong>in</strong> three alternative scenarios........................................................................... 66<br />

Table I.A1.1 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (selected group<strong>in</strong>gs <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> countries): variations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> value<br />

of services trade, first half of 2017 relative to <strong>the</strong> same period <strong>in</strong> 2016 ....................................... 71<br />

Table I.A1.2 Mexico: variation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> market share of imports from <strong>the</strong> United States <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong><br />

<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> <strong>in</strong> three scenarios.............................................................................................. 72<br />

Table I.A1.3 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: value of exports <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> imports, 2015-2017................................. 73<br />

Table I.A1.4 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: variations <strong>in</strong> exports to selected dest<strong>in</strong>ations<br />

by value, 2016 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> 2017 ................................................................................................................. 74<br />

Table I.A1.5 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: variations <strong>in</strong> imports from selected orig<strong>in</strong>s<br />

by value, 2016 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> 2017 ................................................................................................................. 74<br />

Table II.1 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong>n <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> countries <strong>in</strong> top 55 r<strong>an</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g of A.T. Kearney<br />

<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> Tholons, 2009, 2016 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> 2017................................................................................................ 108<br />

Table II.2 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> (selected countries): double taxation treaties, 2017............................................. 111<br />

Table II.3 Selected subregional trade agreements: provisions on trade <strong>in</strong> services, 2017.......................... 114<br />

Table II.4 MERCOSUR <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific Alli<strong>an</strong>ce: GATS-plus <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> GATS-extra commitments, 2017.............. 117<br />

Table III.1 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: composition of agricultural exports by category,<br />

2000 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> 2015 .............................................................................................................................. 137<br />

Table III.2 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: 10 ma<strong>in</strong> agricultural products exported to <strong>the</strong> world,<br />

2000 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> 2016............................................................................................................................... 137<br />

Table III.3 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: composition of agricultural imports by category,<br />

2000 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> 2015............................................................................................................................... 138<br />

Table III.4 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: ma<strong>in</strong> agricultural products exported to selected<br />

dest<strong>in</strong>ations, 2016......................................................................................................................... 141<br />

Table III.5 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: trade agreements between countries <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> group<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

of <strong>the</strong> region with selected partners, as of August 2017.............................................................. 148<br />

Table III.6 World population distribution by regions, 2015 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> 2030............................................................ 149<br />

Table III.A1.1 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (30 countries): value of agricultural exports, 2007-2016............ 152<br />

Table III.A1.2 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (30 countries): value of agricultural imports, 2007-2016............ 153<br />

Table III.A1.3 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (27 countries): distribution of agricultural exports<br />

by dest<strong>in</strong>ation, 2016...................................................................................................................... 154<br />

Table III.A1.4 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (27 countries): distribution of agricultural imports<br />

by orig<strong>in</strong>, 2016............................................................................................................................... 155<br />

Table III.A1.5 <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (26 countries): five ma<strong>in</strong> agricultural products exported,<br />

by country, 2016............................................................................................................................. 156

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