International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery in an uncertain context
This first edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the continuation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy with a new title, covers 2017 and contains three chapters. The first chapter describes the current international context and the recovery of trade in the region. Chapter II reviews the region’s performance in global trade in services in general and in modern services in particular, since 2005. Chapter III provides an overview of Latin America and the Caribbean’s share of the world agricultural trade since 2000 and offers some policy recommendations for increasing the sector’s contribution to regional development.
This first edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the continuation of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy with a new title, covers 2017 and contains three chapters. The first chapter describes the current international context and the recovery of trade in the region. Chapter II reviews the region’s performance in global trade in services in general and in modern services in particular, since 2005. Chapter III provides an overview of Latin America and the Caribbean’s share of the world agricultural trade since 2000 and offers some policy recommendations for increasing the sector’s contribution to regional development.
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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Trade</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> • 2017<br />
Chapter I<br />
55<br />
<strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> to <strong>the</strong> world. Exports to <strong>the</strong> United States <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong><br />
<strong>America</strong>n <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> region are <strong>for</strong>ecast to post near-average growth, while exports<br />
to <strong>the</strong> Europe<strong>an</strong> Union are expected to be <strong>the</strong> least dynamic (see figure I.10). The<br />
stronger per<strong>for</strong>m<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>in</strong> exports to Asia is closely l<strong>in</strong>ked to higher metal <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> m<strong>in</strong>eral<br />
prices, which account <strong>for</strong> a signific<strong>an</strong>t portion of those exports. Imports are expected<br />
to post <strong>the</strong> strongest growth with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>America</strong>s.<br />
The <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> imports will be driven by higher prices <strong>in</strong> almost all subregions<br />
10<br />
9.1<br />
8.0<br />
8<br />
7.0<br />
4.0<br />
2.9<br />
6.2<br />
6<br />
2.0<br />
4.5<br />
2.2<br />
4<br />
Figure I.9<br />
<strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (selected<br />
subregions <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong><br />
countries): projected<br />
variations <strong>in</strong> imports<br />
by volume, price<br />
<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> value 2017<br />
(Percentages)<br />
2<br />
5.1 5.1 5.0<br />
5.0<br />
4.0<br />
0<br />
-2<br />
-0.5<br />
South <strong>America</strong> The <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> Central <strong>America</strong> Mexico <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong><br />
Value<br />
Volume<br />
Price<br />
Source: Economic Commission <strong>for</strong> <strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong> (ECLAC), on <strong>the</strong> basis of official <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation from central b<strong>an</strong>ks, customs offices <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> national <strong>in</strong>stitutes<br />
of statistics <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> countries.<br />
Figure I.10<br />
<strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong>: variations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> value of goods trade by orig<strong>in</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> dest<strong>in</strong>ation, 2016 <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> 2017 a<br />
(Percentages)<br />
Exports to Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> imports from with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> region <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> United States<br />
will post <strong>the</strong> strongest growth <strong>in</strong> 2017<br />
A. Exports<br />
<strong>Lat<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>America</strong><br />
<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Caribbe<strong>an</strong></strong><br />
World<br />
-9<br />
-4<br />
10<br />
10<br />
United States<br />
-3<br />
9<br />
Europe<strong>an</strong> Union<br />
-1<br />
6<br />
Asia (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g Ch<strong>in</strong>a)<br />
-2<br />
17<br />
23<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
-1<br />
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35<br />
2016<br />
2017
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