If the evil is coming, shut the door...

AKOBO
Juba
Background | The Niles 7
L SHEIKH EASTERN EL GEZIRA
UMM RAMTTA
EL HASAHEESA
Khartoum
Armed violence in Sudan and South Sudan is often simplified
as “tribal”. Yet, the root causes of these conflicts are much more
complex. To understand the socio economic and political dynamics,
further micro-level data collection and analysis is needed.
EL MANAGEEL
EL GUTAINA
SOUTHERN
EL GEZIRA
Wad Medani
Juba
Gedaref
EL DOUIEM
EASTERN
SENNAR
AL MAFAZA
Oil
Water
beid
RASHAD
UM RAWABA
EL ABASSIYA
ABU JUBAIHA
TENDALTI
EL SALAM
Rabak
KOSTI
RABAK
EL JABALIAN
SENNAR
EL DALI
AL TADAMON
SINGA
ABU
HOUJAR
Sinnar
EL SOUKI
EL DAMAZINE
BAU
EL DINDIR
Ed Damazin
EL ROSEIRES
GEISSAN
QALA
EL NAHAL
EL RAHAD
Control over oil fields has been a major source
of conflict ever since the first explorations in the
1970s. Large parts of the population in Unity
State were forced out of their homelands when
production started in the late 1990s. Oil profits
at first fuelled the war, but later, financial logic
arguably underpinned the 2005 Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA). During the CPA
interim period, revenues were sufficient to absorb
many rent-seeking rebellions. But after the
peaceful secession of South Sudan and the oil
shutdown, that patronage system could no longer
work in either country. Strikingly, most of the
post-December 2013 fighting has taken place
close to the producing oil fields in South Sudan.
Conflict over land ownership has also been
driven by the ever-growing scourge of desertification,
especially in western Sudan and Greater
Bahr El Ghazal. This loss of fertile soils amidst
a growing population has been partly caused
by local over-grazing and tree-cutting, and
partly due to global climate change for which
industrialised nations are to be blamed. Hence,
access to drinking water for people and livestock
has become an increasingly contentious issue
in large parts of both countries. Many Sudanese
and South Sudanese have been observing
strange developments in the seasonal weather
conditions. Meteorologists predict a sharp climb
in temperatures for the coming decades and
a massive encroachment of the desert on areas
that have been unaffected so far.
MANYO
RENK
MELUT
EL KURUMUK
Gold
Pasture
ARIANG
TALODI
FANGAK
PANYIKANG
CANAL
FASHODA
MALAKAL
NYIROL
Malakal
ULANG
BALIET
LOGOCHUK
LUAKPINY
NASIR
MABAN
MAIWUT
When Sudan lost most of its oil due to the
independence of South Sudan, its economic
policy focused heavily on the exploitation of
its gold deposits. High world market prices
sparked a gold rush, especially in North Darfur.
Most of the recent armed violence in western
Sudan has been attributed to the staking of
competing claims. The involvement of international
mining companies has aggravated such
problems. Gold mining is also at the centre
of the conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue
Nile states. The latter also features rich chrome
deposits. Meanwhile, other gold producing areas
in northeastern Sudan and Eastern Equatoria
have remained peaceful.
Cattle raiding in the Sudans is often described
by media as a cultural phenomenon of using
traditional sports to gain dowries. However,
there is a much deeper economic dimension
behind this bloody problem. While Sudan
is a major exporter of livestock (cows, goats and
camels), especially to the Gulf, millions of
cattle in South Sudan do not get monetarised
but rather serve as a currency in its own economy.
Hence, the sheer number of cows and bulls
counts, and not the amount of meat. Both
systems result in over-grazing and worsening
conflict over pastures, not least across borders
in the Tamazuj belt. For instance, the disputed
area of Abyei – as designated by the Permanent
Court of Arbitration – is rich in grazing lands,
and, contrary to popular belief, not in oil deposits.
AYOD
Land ownership
Gum arabic
YIROL WEST
TEREKEKA
DUK
YIROL EAST
MUNDRI EAST
AWERIAL
TWIC EAST
Bor
BOR SOUTH
UROR
PIBOR
LOPA KAPOETA
NORTH
POCHALLA
KAPOETA EAST
Competition over the ownership of land has
arguably been the most common, but often
overlooked source of armed conflict in both
countries. For this reason, The Niles dedicated
its entire 2013 print edition to this theme, with
a special focus on the historically flawed legal
frameworks. In South Kordofan, the introduction
of large-scale mechanised farming schemes
by absentee landlords in the 1970s created deep
grievances with local farmers that lie at the heart
of the ongoing war there. In Darfur, rivalry
between peasants and landless pastoralists has
been fanning the flames since the great drought
of the 1980s. Likewise, “land grabbing” has
been a top concern for many South Sudanese,
including the redrawing of administrative
boundaries.
Sudan is the world’s largest single producer
and exporter of this acacia tree gum, which
is used as a key stabiliser in the global food
industry, especially for soft drinks. Therefore
it has even been exempted from US sanctions
against Khartoum. Hundreds of thousands
of Sudanese are dependent on gum arabic for
their livelihoods. Only recently it has been
reported that armed clashes took place in South
Darfur over land producing the gum. An earlier
attack on Um Rawaba in North Kordofan has
been linked to gum Arabic, since the town
is a major hub in that trade. With regard
to increasing desertification, it has to be feared
that such violent competition over gum may
spread to that state and other producing areas
in southeastern Sudan.
Juba