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5 months ago

If the evil is coming, shut the door...

Approximately three million small arms are circulating in Sudan and South Sudan. In the fourth edition of The Niles, our correspondents from both countries take a closer look: Where do the weapons come from? What societal role do they play? But most importantly: How many weapons are needed to establish peace and to ensure that the door on evil no longer has to be shut, as the above proverb suggests? A Darfuri fighter (photo), has a practical answer – a collection of talismans meant to protect him from bullets. But will it protect him from the person with his finger on the trigger? Albert Einstein, whose Theory of Relativity was proven in a 1952 experiment carried out in Sudan said: “The world will not be threatened by evil people rather by people who permit it.” Those words ring true here and will hopefully open another door and allow something good to slip in.

6 The Niles | Background

6 The Niles | Background It’s the natural resources! JEBRAT EL SHEIKH Violent conflicts of 2013/14 and their economic causes BEIDA SIRBA JEBEL MOON EL SIREAF EL FASHER BARA EL GENEINA HABILA El Geneina KREINIK AZUM WADI SALIH SARAF OMRA ZALINGEI Zalingei NERTITI KASS KEBKABIYA ROKORO SHARG JABEL MARRA TAWILLA MARSHANG DAR EL SALAM El Fasher KALIMENDO UMM KEDDADA EL TAWEISHA EL NEHOUD WAD BANDA ABU ZABAD SHIEKAN El Obeid ALWEDA FORO BARANGA SHATTAI NITEAGA Nyala AL SUNUT AL QOZ RASHAD BINDISI MUKJAR KUBUM ED EL FURSAN EL SALAM NYALA SHEIRIA YASSIN ED DAEIN Ed Daein AILLIET ABU KARINKA GHUBAYSH Al-Fula LAGAWA DILLING HABILA EL SALAM UMM DUKHUN RAHAD EL BERDI TULLUS DIMSU GEREIDA ASSALAYA EL FERDOUS ADILA BABANUSA Kadugli REIF ASHARGI KADUGLI UMM DUREIN AL BURAM BAHR EL ARAB ABU JABRA BURAM UM DAFUG EL RADOOM SUNTA ABYEI KEILAK Abyei ABIEMNHOM PARIANG TALODI Sudan AWEIL NORTH AWEIL EAST TWIC RUBKONA Bentiu South Sudan GUIT AWEIL WEST oil concession area oilfield (producing) Aweil AWEIL SOUTH GOGRIAL WEST GOGRIAL EAST MAYOM KOCH FANGAK TONJ NORTH oil pipeline processing facility country state locality (Sudan) /county (South Sudan) RAGA AWEIL CENTRE JUR RIVER Kuajok Wau TONJ EAST MAYENDIT LEER RUMBEK NORTH disputed area DUK incidents of armed violence oil gold land ownership WAU NAGERO TONJ SOUTH CUEIBET RUMBEK CENTRE Rumbek PANYIJIAR RUMBEK EAST YIROL EAS water pasture YIROL WEST gum arabic 0 100 km Sources: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), European Coalition on Oil in Sudan (ECOS), Gum Arabic Board (GAB) of Sudan, International Peace Information Service (IPIS), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), US Agency for International Development (USAID) TAMBURA EZO NZARA YAMBIO IBBA WULU MARIDI MVOLO MUNDRI WEST TEREKEKA AWE MUNDRI EAST

AKOBO Juba Background | The Niles 7 L SHEIKH EASTERN EL GEZIRA UMM RAMTTA EL HASAHEESA Khartoum Armed violence in Sudan and South Sudan is often simplified as “tribal”. Yet, the root causes of these conflicts are much more complex. To understand the socio economic and political dynamics, further micro-level data collection and analysis is needed. EL MANAGEEL EL GUTAINA SOUTHERN EL GEZIRA Wad Medani Juba Gedaref EL DOUIEM EASTERN SENNAR AL MAFAZA Oil Water beid RASHAD UM RAWABA EL ABASSIYA ABU JUBAIHA TENDALTI EL SALAM Rabak KOSTI RABAK EL JABALIAN SENNAR EL DALI AL TADAMON SINGA ABU HOUJAR Sinnar EL SOUKI EL DAMAZINE BAU EL DINDIR Ed Damazin EL ROSEIRES GEISSAN QALA EL NAHAL EL RAHAD Control over oil fields has been a major source of conflict ever since the first explorations in the 1970s. Large parts of the population in Unity State were forced out of their homelands when production started in the late 1990s. Oil profits at first fuelled the war, but later, financial logic arguably underpinned the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). During the CPA interim period, revenues were sufficient to absorb many rent-seeking rebellions. But after the peaceful secession of South Sudan and the oil shutdown, that patronage system could no longer work in either country. Strikingly, most of the post-December 2013 fighting has taken place close to the producing oil fields in South Sudan. Conflict over land ownership has also been driven by the ever-growing scourge of desertification, especially in western Sudan and Greater Bahr El Ghazal. This loss of fertile soils amidst a growing population has been partly caused by local over-grazing and tree-cutting, and partly due to global climate change for which industrialised nations are to be blamed. Hence, access to drinking water for people and livestock has become an increasingly contentious issue in large parts of both countries. Many Sudanese and South Sudanese have been observing strange developments in the seasonal weather conditions. Meteorologists predict a sharp climb in temperatures for the coming decades and a massive encroachment of the desert on areas that have been unaffected so far. MANYO RENK MELUT EL KURUMUK Gold Pasture ARIANG TALODI FANGAK PANYIKANG CANAL FASHODA MALAKAL NYIROL Malakal ULANG BALIET LOGOCHUK LUAKPINY NASIR MABAN MAIWUT When Sudan lost most of its oil due to the independence of South Sudan, its economic policy focused heavily on the exploitation of its gold deposits. High world market prices sparked a gold rush, especially in North Darfur. Most of the recent armed violence in western Sudan has been attributed to the staking of competing claims. The involvement of international mining companies has aggravated such problems. Gold mining is also at the centre of the conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. The latter also features rich chrome deposits. Meanwhile, other gold producing areas in northeastern Sudan and Eastern Equatoria have remained peaceful. Cattle raiding in the Sudans is often described by media as a cultural phenomenon of using traditional sports to gain dowries. However, there is a much deeper economic dimension behind this bloody problem. While Sudan is a major exporter of livestock (cows, goats and camels), especially to the Gulf, millions of cattle in South Sudan do not get monetarised but rather serve as a currency in its own economy. Hence, the sheer number of cows and bulls counts, and not the amount of meat. Both systems result in over-grazing and worsening conflict over pastures, not least across borders in the Tamazuj belt. For instance, the disputed area of Abyei – as designated by the Permanent Court of Arbitration – is rich in grazing lands, and, contrary to popular belief, not in oil deposits. AYOD Land ownership Gum arabic YIROL WEST TEREKEKA DUK YIROL EAST MUNDRI EAST AWERIAL TWIC EAST Bor BOR SOUTH UROR PIBOR LOPA KAPOETA NORTH POCHALLA KAPOETA EAST Competition over the ownership of land has arguably been the most common, but often overlooked source of armed conflict in both countries. For this reason, The Niles dedicated its entire 2013 print edition to this theme, with a special focus on the historically flawed legal frameworks. In South Kordofan, the introduction of large-scale mechanised farming schemes by absentee landlords in the 1970s created deep grievances with local farmers that lie at the heart of the ongoing war there. In Darfur, rivalry between peasants and landless pastoralists has been fanning the flames since the great drought of the 1980s. Likewise, “land grabbing” has been a top concern for many South Sudanese, including the redrawing of administrative boundaries. Sudan is the world’s largest single producer and exporter of this acacia tree gum, which is used as a key stabiliser in the global food industry, especially for soft drinks. Therefore it has even been exempted from US sanctions against Khartoum. Hundreds of thousands of Sudanese are dependent on gum arabic for their livelihoods. Only recently it has been reported that armed clashes took place in South Darfur over land producing the gum. An earlier attack on Um Rawaba in North Kordofan has been linked to gum Arabic, since the town is a major hub in that trade. With regard to increasing desertification, it has to be feared that such violent competition over gum may spread to that state and other producing areas in southeastern Sudan. Juba

When two elephants fight...
Those who have no fence around their land...
The children of the land scatter like birds escaping a burning sky...
It is a fool...