atw 2019-02
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
<strong>atw</strong> Vol. 64 (<strong>2019</strong>) | Issue 2 ı February<br />
Feature | Major Trends in Energy Policy and Nuclear Power<br />
Contribution of Nuclear Power Plants to<br />
the Energy Transition in Germany<br />
Denis Janin, Eckart Lindwedel, Volker Raffel, Graham Weale, James Cox and Geir Bronmo<br />
This study investigates the contribution of nuclear power plants (NPPs) to the German Energy Transition by analysing<br />
the effects of an early closure of NPPs early 2<strong>02</strong>0. According to the German law, the seven NPPs remaining today in<br />
operation will be shut-down successively by 2<strong>02</strong>2 at the latest. Until then NPPs generate competitive, CO 2 -free and<br />
dispatchable power supporting the German power system and the other energy transition objectives. This work<br />
quantifies the impact of an early phase-out of NPPs in Germany and at the European level. A coupled market and grid<br />
system analysis is performed. The Pöyry’s in-house market model BID3 and the grid analysis software tool PSS/E,<br />
simulating the electrical behaviour of the power grid using the transmission system planning, are applied. This approach<br />
enables a consideration of power grid actual flows, model power redispatch measures and an evaluation of the<br />
associated costs. In a nutshell a premature shut down of German NPPs already by the end of <strong>2019</strong> would cost over<br />
5 billion EUR to the German social welfare, increase CO 2 emissions by up to 90 million tons and raise wholesale power<br />
prices between 4 to 7 EUR/MWh. As for grid stability aspects, without NPPs on the grid from January 2<strong>02</strong>0 onwards,<br />
the capacity margins would be reduced by 1.5 GW, the redispatch costs of thermal power plants would increase while<br />
the measures associated with renewables energies curtailment would decrease. This research was performed by the<br />
independent analysis of Pöyry Management Consulting at the request of PreussenElektra in 2018.<br />
1 Introduction<br />
According to the German law, the seven nuclear power<br />
plants (NPPs) remaining today in operation will be shut<br />
down successively by 31st December 2<strong>02</strong>2 at the latest, as<br />
shown in Figure 1 [1]. Until then, NPPs generate competitive,<br />
dispatchable and CO 2 -free power [2] supporting<br />
the German energy transition (Energiewende) objectives.<br />
This work quantifies the contribution of NPPs to the<br />
German energy transition during the period 01.01.2<strong>02</strong>0<br />
until 31.12.2<strong>02</strong>2. The study investigates the scenario of<br />
an early closure of all NPPs early 2<strong>02</strong>0 and focuses on<br />
energy economics and power grid consequences. A<br />
coupled market and grid system analysis is performed<br />
using the market model BID3 [4] and the PSS/E tool [5]<br />
simulating the electrical behaviour of the power grid using<br />
the transmission system planning. This work was performed<br />
by the independent analysis of Pöyry Management<br />
Consulting GmbH at the initiative of PreussenElektra<br />
GmbH in 2018.<br />
2 Method<br />
2.1 Scenarios<br />
The independent and widely accepted by industry players<br />
“Pöyry Central Scenario” is used as the base input. It is<br />
Pöyry’s most likely view of the development of the<br />
electricity market and the broader economic environment<br />
and is introduced hereafter. In this study, two scenarios for<br />
NPPs phase-out in Germany are investigated:<br />
pp<br />
the “Reference” case: NPPs will shut-down according<br />
to their latest authorized date of operation as specified<br />
in German atomic law and shown in Figure 1. This<br />
scenario is equal to the Pöyry Central Scenario.<br />
pp<br />
the “NPP Out” case: in which all seven today operating<br />
NPPs are shut-down by the end of <strong>2019</strong>.<br />
The specific assumptions are described in the next<br />
paragraphs, including the logic for the choice of 2013<br />
as reference for the weather year.<br />
2.1.1 Pöyry Central Scenario<br />
Pöyry’s independent and widely accepted “Central<br />
Scenario” is used as basis for this study. “Central” represents<br />
a midway alternative between two more extreme<br />
Low and High scenarios and represents Pöyry’s most likely<br />
| | Fig. 1.<br />
Latest NPP operation date according to German law. Source: Federal<br />
Ministry for the Environment, Nature Protection and Nuclear Safety<br />
(Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit).<br />
view of the development of the electricity market and<br />
broader economic environment. This view is based on<br />
market expertise from all European countries, planned<br />
and announced power plant and interconnector commissioning<br />
and decommissioning, and projections of external<br />
factors such as currency exchange rates, inflation, commodity<br />
prices and electricity demand. This section provides<br />
an overview of the core assumptions defining the<br />
“Central Scenario”. These assumptions may be classified<br />
under the following headings:<br />
pp<br />
economic assumptions<br />
The real exchange rates are derived from projections<br />
of nominal exchange rates and inflation. Within the<br />
modelling, the real exchange rates are used to convert<br />
FEATURE | MAJOR TRENDS IN ENERGY POLICY AND NUCLEAR POWER 71<br />
Feature | Major Trends in Energy Policy and Nuclear Power<br />
Contribution of Nuclear Power Plants to the Energy Transition in Germany ı Denis Janin, Eckart Lindwedel, Volker Raffel, Graham Weale, James Cox and Geir Bronmo
Change language