Adventure Magazine April 2020

The Tongariro Alpine Crossing has by far
the most incidents, however it also caters for
the highest number of visitors. 150,000 walk the
Tongariro Crossing each year compared to 15,000
on the Milford Track.
In 2018 the NZ Mountain Safety Council
(MSC) produced a report called “A Walk in the
Park? A deep dive into tramping incidents in New
Zealand. It makes for some interesting reading
on the statistics surrounding our most popular
outdoor activity.
In the ten years between 2007 and 2017, 57
people lost their lives in tramping accidents; 31
from falling, 21 from drowning, 6 from hypothermia
and the remainder from avalanches and other
such incidents.
The role of the MSC is in preventing safetyrelated
issues in land-based outdoor recreation.
Fatalities due to natural cause or suicide were not
analysed as they are not deemed to be safetyrelated
issues. E.g. Gerd Wilde (case above)
could have had his heart attack at any other point
of his journey in NZ such as in a spa in Rotorua or
walking along Queen Street.
Of the 57 deaths, 32 were Kiwis and 25 were
international visitors.
The MSC noted that the most prominent
causal factor of a fatality while tramping was
competence, or lack of, attributing to 66% of the
deaths occurring over the decade. Competence
includes relevant experience, level of skill etc.
The second most prominent causal factor
was social and psychological factors; the state
of mind of the tramper, which attributed to 62%
of the fatalities; the desire to get to a destination,
taking a 'short cut', or underestimation of risk were
causes that factored highly.
By comparison, weather and equipment
were seen as the cause of only 32% and 28% of
tramping deaths respectively.
The other interesting information was where
fatalities occurred as a result of ignoring advice,
88% were male. Not surprisingly, where fatalities
occurred as a result of ignoring signs, 100% were
international visitors.
Many people have a strange way of weighing up risk against benefits
and can convince themselves that everything will be alright, despite many
obvious signs that it won’t be. This is also known as “confirmation bias” or
underestimating the risk. MSC insights have discovered that this was a factor
in at least 17% of tramping fatalities between 2007 and 2017. The fact that
so many other people have “done the crossing” and do so every year gives
people a false sense of the safety of the experience. Our tourism machine
has done a great job of making people really want to have an experience,
despite the risks involved.
So what can we do with all this information?
Hopefully the research can help us to make better
decisions, be aware of where the risks lie and help
us become better informed. It has also highlighted
some specific solutions for the Tongariro Alpine
Crossing ranging from more targeted advertising
of alternative tracks in the area, improvements in
parts of the track itself, through to the employment
of full time rangers on the track to offer
assistance and assess trampers progress, and
the development of technology that would track
trampers progress.
However, the final buck stops with us. Will
our egos allow us to make sure we take all risk
assessments into consideration? Will our egos
allow us to turn back if the weather is inclement?
Will our egos allow us to admit that the exercise
is outside our ability levels? Or will we make what
could be a fatal error of judgement?
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