Fine & Country National Housing Market Update | February 2021

DOMVSproperties

LIFESTYLE CHANGES DEMAND

The housing market proved one of the highlights of the economy in 2020, defying expectations and staging an extraordinary recovery. As we head towards spring 2021, market conditions are beginning to soften but with lifestyle change continuing to drive demand, the market remains busy.

FEBRUARY 2021

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE


K E Y S T A T S

E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES

£735,000 £1,107,974 9.73%

£616 £35.6bn 12,624

LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE

MORTGAGE APPROVALS 103,381 24.9% 53.6%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 129,400 41.8% 31.5%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £24.2 bn 21.4% 6.8%

NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 31,900 131.5% -9.2%

NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 35,260 154.6% 0.1%

2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


M A R K E T O V E R V I E W

LIFESTYLE 2 0 1 8 - CHANGE TH E YE A R DRIVES TH AT DEMAND

WAS

The Although housing the market festive season proved is one upon of us, the there highlights is little of seasonal the economy cheer in and 2020, ‘good defying

will to all’

expectations evident across and the staging political an arena. extraordinary Brexit continues recovery. to dominate As we head the towards headlines spring as all 2021,

eyes

market await the conditions final outcome. are beginning Whatever to the soften conclusion, but with there lifestyle are change sure to continuing be implications to drive

for

demand, sterling and the the market economy. remains As 2018 busy.

draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what

we can expect in 2019?

DEFYING EXPECTATIONS

More than 129,000 homes changed hands in December, 32%

higher GLIMMERS than in December OF SEASONAL 2019 and total CHEER sales volumes in 2020

are predicted to be just 11% lower than in 2019, despite the

enforced Throughout pause 2018 in the sales market volumes (HMRC). across the Mortgage housing approvals

market

in have 2020 struggled, hit their thanks highest to annual the backdrop total since of lower 2007, approvals

buyer

in demand the second and low half levels of the of year consumer up 39% confidence. year year. However, With a

significant latest data

number from the

of Bank

sales of

in England

the pipeline, indicates

many mortgage

hoping to

complete approvals

before in October

the end were

of 4%

the higher

March than

SDLT a year

deadline, ago, while

activity

the total value of lending hit its highest monthly figure since

in the market remains brisk. Demand exceeding supply

the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the

has undoubtedly helped support prices. At 7.6% UK house

additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took

price growth is at its strongest since June 2016 and the EU

place across the UK in October than in any month since July

Referendum. The average price of a prime market property

2017, while Rightmove data shows properties in 2018 to

now date

exceeds have taken

£1 an

million, average

up over of 61

9% days

year from

on the

year. start

Price

of

growth marketing

is evident to being

in sold-subject-to-contract,

all regions, with significant one

growth

day

recorded in the South East and London.

shorter than last year and an improvement on the 65 days

witnessed in 2016.

FUTURE DIRECTION

Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer,

While mortgage activity interest continues rates remain across the low. market UK Finance ahead report of the that current

Stamp at 2.23% Duty the deadline, current average it is perhaps mortgage not surprising interest rate that is there lowerare

signs than the rate pace both of growth five and is beginning ten years to ago, soften. 3.14% Although and 6.11% new

demand respectively.

remains Adjusting

high, Rightmove for inflation,

reporting wages have

demand risen over

up 12% in

January, the past

this year,

has positive

moderated news for

over household

recent months finances.

and supply to

the market in recent weeks has eased. Zoopla report a 12% fall

in SENSE new supply AND and SENSIBILITY

a 6% fall in the number of homes currently

for sale, as new sellers remain cautious while restrictions

Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The

remain. Rightmove report that average asking prices fell

average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November,

marginally in January and Nationwide reported prices fell 0.3%

the largest November fall since 2012 according to

month on month, the first monthly decline since the market

Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated

re-opened throughout

in the

June. year.

It remains Annual house

to be price

seen whether growth across

the

the

Chancellor UK in the year

will to

announce September

any was

extension 3.5%, down

or form from

of tapered

4.6% a

year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index.

Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a

year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit

uncertainty.

relief of Stamp Duty following the debate in parliament on 1st

February. This will undoubtedly impact sales activity in April

and May; the ability of buyers and sellers to negotiate on price

will Across be critical the to UK avoid prime sales markets, falling the though.

average price of property

is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many

THE assets LITTLE 2018 has RED not proved BOX

momentous. In the year to the

end of November the average price of gold has fallen by

The over Chancellor’s 1%, the stock Budget market early (FTSE next month 100) by (3rd 6%, March) while the will

S&P

set Global the tone Luxury for the Index country is 5.5% for lower the year than ahead, a year with ago, many

despite

of the fine current wines and economic classic cars support boasting measures small for positive individuals

returns.

and Many businesses commentators currently report due to evidence finish at the of pent-up end of April.

demand

Reforms higher to Capital priced Gains properties, Tax are with likely prospective to be included. vendors Over

15 million waiting people for more are clarity set to before have received they commit their to first their vaccine

dose purchase.

by March and once Lockdown restrictions start to ease,

consumer confidence and spending are likely to rise quickly.

At A present CRYSTAL the Office BALL for Budget Responsibility forecast that

the economy will return to its pre-pandemic levels within two

Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with

years, with growth of 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022.

a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK

and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark

PRIME Carney, MARKETS

has reiterated his forecast that in the event of a nodeal

Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average

The house

lifestyle prices

changes by up

sought to 30%.

by Current

many in forecasts

the wake from

of the

the

pandemic Office for are Budget likely to Responsibility ensure continued point interest to employment in the

levels

prime continuing markets to of rise the in UK 2019, from along both with domestic, average as earnings, well as

while

overseas inflation purchasers. is predicted Virtual to edge viewings back to are the proving government’s a lifeline

2.0%

for target. those seeking This may to well purchase require before a gradual the introduction rise interest of rates, the

2% although overseas the purchaser current surcharge view is that in the April. base The rate UK will remains

rise to

a location just 1.5 of – 1.75% choice by for 2021. residential property purchases by

the world’s wealthy and ranks in the global top 10 for its

population Across the of Ultra-High housing market, Net Worth as per 2018, Individuals

many

(Wealth-X, commentators

2020). expect

Property the

prices wider

across UK market

the prime

to outperform

London. An average of independent forecasts predicts price

market are predicted to rise in the region of 4% over the

growth across the UK will be 2.2% during 2019. In

course of 2021.

comparison, those commentating on the London market

anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling

prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to

be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.

Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over

10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be

true.

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3


R E G I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

£438,000

£602,278

+5.0% +4.8%

£314

£493,000

£656,562

+5.3%

£323

£360,000

£481,515

+4.8%

£246

£429,000

£576,749

+4.9%

£293

£450,000

£590,398

+4.6%

£282

£400,000

£523,026

+7.6%

£276

£722,000

£975,357

+6.2%

£485

£642,000 £643,000

£884,222 £885,360

+9.5% +9.6%

£410

£859,000 £860,000

£1,230,930 £1,231,030

+11.0% +11.1%

£501

£1,580,000

£2,570,593

+12.1%

£1,239

4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %

PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE

PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

The premium price threshold is

the value over which the top 5%

of property sales occur. The chart

shows a rolling 12 month change

in the average price paid for

premium properties compared

to the previous 12 month.

ENGLAND & WALES

12.5%

10%

7.5%

5%

2.5%

0%

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE

LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES

SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM

PRICE THRESHOLD

ENGLAND & WALES

£1,600

An individual premium price

threshold is calculated for each

property type based on sold

prices in the last 12 months. The

chart shows the average price paid

per square foot for all of these

premium properties.

£1,200

£800

£400

£1173

£699

£521 £515

£616

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5


T R A N S A C T I O N S

A N D K EY P RI C E P O IN T S

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE COUNTRY

Chart shows a rolling 12 month

change in transactions compared

to the previous 12 month period

for all properties and those

priced at £1m or over.

ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

DEC

2019

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

£238,610

£735,000

£1,107,974

£216,778

£753,745

£1,216,183

£185,219

£602,242

£989,914

£225,880

£578,318

£809,838

£369,548

£943,179

£1,387,748

£243,050

£731,608

£1,093,384

6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


N A T I O N A L

M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS

THE REGION

Rolling 12 month change in

the average price paid for all

properties sold compared to the

previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES

3.5%

3%

2.5%

2%

1.5%

1%

0.5%

0%

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APR

2020

MAY

2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER

THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF

ALL PROPERTY SALES

ENGLAND & WALES

Average price paid per square

foot for all property transactions.

£400

£300

£200

£316

£202

£234

£279

£244

£100

0

FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7


A V A I L A B I L I T Y

A N D TIM E TO SE LL

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS

TO SELL

NATIONAL

Average number of days

from when a property is first

marketed on Rightmove to

when the estate agent marks it

as “sold subject to contract”.

100

75

50

62 62 64

67

71

76

67

61

83

88

73

62

53

50 49

52

57

25

0

AUG

2019

SEP

2019

OCT

2019

NOV DEC

2019 2019

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APRIL MAY

2020 2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV DEC

2020 2020

Source: Rightmove

PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO

BUY PER AGENT

Average stock per agent

calculated by the average

number of properties an agent

has on Rightmove each day

across the month.

NATIONAL

50

40

30

20

10

0

AUG

2019

SEP

2019

OCT

2019

NOV DEC

2019 2019

JAN

2020

FEB

2020

MAR

2020

APRIL MAY

2020 2020

JUN

2020

JUL

2020

AUG

2020

SEP

2020

OCT

2020

NOV

2020

DEC

2020

Source: Rightmove

T: +44 (0)207 079 1515

E: parklane@fineandcountry.com

fineandcountry.com

Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. Whilst every effort has been made to

ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any

nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction

of all or part of the report in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.

Report edited by Inform user and published on 03-02-2021.

Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due

to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.

dataloft.co.uk

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