Fine & Country National Housing Market Update | February 2021

FEBRUARY 2021
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

K E Y S T A T S
E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES
£735,000 £1,107,974 9.73%
£616 £35.6bn 12,624
LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE
MORTGAGE APPROVALS 103,381 24.9% 53.6%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 129,400 41.8% 31.5%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £24.2 bn 21.4% 6.8%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 31,900 131.5% -9.2%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 35,260 154.6% 0.1%
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

M A R K E T O V E R V I E W
LIFESTYLE 2 0 1 8 - CHANGE TH E YE A R DRIVES TH AT DEMAND
WAS
The Although housing the market festive season proved is one upon of us, the there highlights is little of seasonal the economy cheer in and 2020, ‘good defying
will to all’
expectations evident across and the staging political an arena. extraordinary Brexit continues recovery. to dominate As we head the towards headlines spring as all 2021,
eyes
market await the conditions final outcome. are beginning Whatever to the soften conclusion, but with there lifestyle are change sure to continuing be implications to drive
for
demand, sterling and the the market economy. remains As 2018 busy.
draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what
we can expect in 2019?
DEFYING EXPECTATIONS
More than 129,000 homes changed hands in December, 32%
higher GLIMMERS than in December OF SEASONAL 2019 and total CHEER sales volumes in 2020
are predicted to be just 11% lower than in 2019, despite the
enforced Throughout pause 2018 in the sales market volumes (HMRC). across the Mortgage housing approvals
market
in have 2020 struggled, hit their thanks highest to annual the backdrop total since of lower 2007, approvals
buyer
in demand the second and low half levels of the of year consumer up 39% confidence. year year. However, With a
significant latest data
number from the
of Bank
sales of
in England
the pipeline, indicates
many mortgage
hoping to
complete approvals
before in October
the end were
of 4%
the higher
March than
SDLT a year
deadline, ago, while
activity
the total value of lending hit its highest monthly figure since
in the market remains brisk. Demand exceeding supply
the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the
has undoubtedly helped support prices. At 7.6% UK house
additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took
price growth is at its strongest since June 2016 and the EU
place across the UK in October than in any month since July
Referendum. The average price of a prime market property
2017, while Rightmove data shows properties in 2018 to
now date
exceeds have taken
£1 an
million, average
up over of 61
9% days
year from
on the
year. start
Price
of
growth marketing
is evident to being
in sold-subject-to-contract,
all regions, with significant one
growth
day
recorded in the South East and London.
shorter than last year and an improvement on the 65 days
witnessed in 2016.
FUTURE DIRECTION
Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer,
While mortgage activity interest continues rates remain across the low. market UK Finance ahead report of the that current
Stamp at 2.23% Duty the deadline, current average it is perhaps mortgage not surprising interest rate that is there lowerare
signs than the rate pace both of growth five and is beginning ten years to ago, soften. 3.14% Although and 6.11% new
demand respectively.
remains Adjusting
high, Rightmove for inflation,
reporting wages have
demand risen over
up 12% in
January, the past
this year,
has positive
moderated news for
over household
recent months finances.
and supply to
the market in recent weeks has eased. Zoopla report a 12% fall
in SENSE new supply AND and SENSIBILITY
a 6% fall in the number of homes currently
for sale, as new sellers remain cautious while restrictions
Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The
remain. Rightmove report that average asking prices fell
average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November,
marginally in January and Nationwide reported prices fell 0.3%
the largest November fall since 2012 according to
month on month, the first monthly decline since the market
Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated
re-opened throughout
in the
June. year.
It remains Annual house
to be price
seen whether growth across
the
the
Chancellor UK in the year
will to
announce September
any was
extension 3.5%, down
or form from
of tapered
4.6% a
year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index.
Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a
year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit
uncertainty.
relief of Stamp Duty following the debate in parliament on 1st
February. This will undoubtedly impact sales activity in April
and May; the ability of buyers and sellers to negotiate on price
will Across be critical the to UK avoid prime sales markets, falling the though.
average price of property
is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many
THE assets LITTLE 2018 has RED not proved BOX
momentous. In the year to the
end of November the average price of gold has fallen by
The over Chancellor’s 1%, the stock Budget market early (FTSE next month 100) by (3rd 6%, March) while the will
S&P
set Global the tone Luxury for the Index country is 5.5% for lower the year than ahead, a year with ago, many
despite
of the fine current wines and economic classic cars support boasting measures small for positive individuals
returns.
and Many businesses commentators currently report due to evidence finish at the of pent-up end of April.
demand
Reforms higher to Capital priced Gains properties, Tax are with likely prospective to be included. vendors Over
15 million waiting people for more are clarity set to before have received they commit their to first their vaccine
dose purchase.
by March and once Lockdown restrictions start to ease,
consumer confidence and spending are likely to rise quickly.
At A present CRYSTAL the Office BALL for Budget Responsibility forecast that
the economy will return to its pre-pandemic levels within two
Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with
years, with growth of 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022.
a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK
and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark
PRIME Carney, MARKETS
has reiterated his forecast that in the event of a nodeal
Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average
The house
lifestyle prices
changes by up
sought to 30%.
by Current
many in forecasts
the wake from
of the
the
pandemic Office for are Budget likely to Responsibility ensure continued point interest to employment in the
levels
prime continuing markets to of rise the in UK 2019, from along both with domestic, average as earnings, well as
while
overseas inflation purchasers. is predicted Virtual to edge viewings back to are the proving government’s a lifeline
2.0%
for target. those seeking This may to well purchase require before a gradual the introduction rise interest of rates, the
2% although overseas the purchaser current surcharge view is that in the April. base The rate UK will remains
rise to
a location just 1.5 of – 1.75% choice by for 2021. residential property purchases by
the world’s wealthy and ranks in the global top 10 for its
population Across the of Ultra-High housing market, Net Worth as per 2018, Individuals
many
(Wealth-X, commentators
2020). expect
Property the
prices wider
across UK market
the prime
to outperform
London. An average of independent forecasts predicts price
market are predicted to rise in the region of 4% over the
growth across the UK will be 2.2% during 2019. In
course of 2021.
comparison, those commentating on the London market
anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling
prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to
be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.
Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over
10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be
true.
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3

R E G I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
£438,000
£602,278
+5.0% +4.8%
£314
£493,000
£656,562
+5.3%
£323
£360,000
£481,515
+4.8%
£246
£429,000
£576,749
+4.9%
£293
£450,000
£590,398
+4.6%
£282
£400,000
£523,026
+7.6%
£276
£722,000
£975,357
+6.2%
£485
£642,000 £643,000
£884,222 £885,360
+9.5% +9.6%
£410
£859,000 £860,000
£1,230,930 £1,231,030
+11.0% +11.1%
£501
£1,580,000
£2,570,593
+12.1%
£1,239
4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

N A T I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE
PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is
the value over which the top 5%
of property sales occur. The chart
shows a rolling 12 month change
in the average price paid for
premium properties compared
to the previous 12 month.
ENGLAND & WALES
12.5%
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
0%
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE
LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES
SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM
PRICE THRESHOLD
ENGLAND & WALES
£1,600
An individual premium price
threshold is calculated for each
property type based on sold
prices in the last 12 months. The
chart shows the average price paid
per square foot for all of these
premium properties.
£1,200
£800
£400
£1173
£699
£521 £515
£616
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5

T R A N S A C T I O N S
A N D K EY P RI C E P O IN T S
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE COUNTRY
Chart shows a rolling 12 month
change in transactions compared
to the previous 12 month period
for all properties and those
priced at £1m or over.
ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
£238,610
£735,000
£1,107,974
£216,778
£753,745
£1,216,183
£185,219
£602,242
£989,914
£225,880
£578,318
£809,838
£369,548
£943,179
£1,387,748
£243,050
£731,608
£1,093,384
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

N A T I O N A L
M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE REGION
Rolling 12 month change in
the average price paid for all
properties sold compared to the
previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES
3.5%
3%
2.5%
2%
1.5%
1%
0.5%
0%
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER
THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF
ALL PROPERTY SALES
ENGLAND & WALES
Average price paid per square
foot for all property transactions.
£400
£300
£200
£316
£202
£234
£279
£244
£100
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7

A V A I L A B I L I T Y
A N D TIM E TO SE LL
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS
TO SELL
NATIONAL
Average number of days
from when a property is first
marketed on Rightmove to
when the estate agent marks it
as “sold subject to contract”.
100
75
50
62 62 64
67
71
76
67
61
83
88
73
62
53
50 49
52
57
25
0
AUG
2019
SEP
2019
OCT
2019
NOV DEC
2019 2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APRIL MAY
2020 2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV DEC
2020 2020
Source: Rightmove
PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO
BUY PER AGENT
Average stock per agent
calculated by the average
number of properties an agent
has on Rightmove each day
across the month.
NATIONAL
50
40
30
20
10
0
AUG
2019
SEP
2019
OCT
2019
NOV DEC
2019 2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APRIL MAY
2020 2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
Source: Rightmove
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515
E: parklane@fineandcountry.com
fineandcountry.com
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Report edited by Inform user and published on 03-02-2021.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due
to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.
dataloft.co.uk