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Observed climate changes in Croatia Climate change scenario

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Precipitation anomalies (mm)<br />

Precipitation anomalies (mm)<br />

Precipitation anomalies (mm)<br />

Precipitation anomalies (mm)<br />

Precipitation anomalies (mm)<br />

800<br />

700<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

-100<br />

-200<br />

-300<br />

-400<br />

-500<br />

OSIJEK<br />

P1961-1990= 651 mm<br />

Trend=-5.5mm/10years<br />

-600<br />

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950<br />

Years<br />

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010<br />

800<br />

700<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

ZAGREB - GRIČ<br />

P 1961-1990= 883 mm<br />

-100<br />

-200<br />

-300<br />

-400<br />

-500<br />

-600<br />

Trend=-2.7mm/10years<br />

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950<br />

Years<br />

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010<br />

800<br />

700 GOSPIĆ<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

-100<br />

-200<br />

-300<br />

P1961-1990= 1369 mm<br />

-400<br />

-500<br />

-600<br />

Trend=-14.3mm/10years<br />

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950<br />

Years<br />

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010<br />

800<br />

700<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

-100<br />

-200<br />

-300<br />

-400<br />

CRIKVENICA P1961-1990= 1243 mm<br />

-500<br />

-600<br />

Trend=-21.7mm/10years *<br />

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950<br />

Years<br />

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010<br />

800<br />

700<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

HVAR<br />

P 1961-1990= 730 mm<br />

100<br />

0<br />

-100<br />

-200<br />

-300<br />

-400<br />

-500<br />

-600<br />

Trend=-7.5mm/10years<br />

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950<br />

Years<br />

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010<br />

Coeficient of variation (c v)<br />

Coefficient of variation (c v)<br />

Coefficient of variation (c v)<br />

Coefficient of variation (c v)<br />

Coefficient of variation (c v)<br />

0.30<br />

0.25<br />

0.20<br />

0.15<br />

0.10<br />

0.30<br />

0.25<br />

0.20<br />

0.15<br />

0.10<br />

0.30<br />

0.25<br />

0.20<br />

0.15<br />

0.10<br />

0.30<br />

0.25<br />

0.20<br />

0.15<br />

0.10<br />

0.30<br />

0.25<br />

0.20<br />

0.15<br />

0.10<br />

1900<br />

1900<br />

1900<br />

1900<br />

1900<br />

OSIJEK<br />

CV1961-1990 = 0,16<br />

Trend = -0,003/10yrs *<br />

1910<br />

1910<br />

1920<br />

1920<br />

1930<br />

ZAGREB-GRIČ<br />

cv 1961-1990 = 0,15<br />

1930<br />

1940<br />

Trend = -0,010/10yrs *<br />

1910<br />

1920<br />

1930<br />

1940<br />

GOSPIĆ<br />

cv1961-1990 = 0,15<br />

Trend = -0,005/10yrs *<br />

CRIKVENICA<br />

cv 1961-1990 = 0.19<br />

1940<br />

Trend = -0.004/10yrs *<br />

1910<br />

1920<br />

1930<br />

HVAR<br />

cv1961-1990 = 0,21<br />

1940<br />

Trend = 0,029/10yrs *<br />

Figure 1-4. Time series for the annual precipitation amounts, related 11-year b<strong>in</strong>omial mov<strong>in</strong>g<br />

averages and trends (left), unit is anomalies (mm) with respect to 1961-1990 average). Time series for the<br />

coefficients of variation for 30-year periods with one year shift and trends (right). (* - trends significant at<br />

the 5% level). Period: 1901-2008 (Gospić: 1924-2008).<br />

1910<br />

1920<br />

1930<br />

1940<br />

1950<br />

1950<br />

1950<br />

1950<br />

1950<br />

1960<br />

Years<br />

1960<br />

Years<br />

1960<br />

Years<br />

1960<br />

Years<br />

1960<br />

Years<br />

1970<br />

1970<br />

1970<br />

1970<br />

1970<br />

1980<br />

1980<br />

1980<br />

1980<br />

1980<br />

1990<br />

1990<br />

1990<br />

1990<br />

1990<br />

2000<br />

2000<br />

2000<br />

2000<br />

2000<br />

2010<br />

2010<br />

2010<br />

2010<br />

2010<br />

12

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