Observed climate changes in Croatia Climate change scenario

northern part of the domain, whereas above our areas the northern wind component will be
strengthened, although the westerly wind will still prevail.
2.3. Surface fields
2.3.1 Temperature at 2 m (T2m)
In all seasons temperature at 2 m will be increased in future climate (Fig. 2-2); this is
statistically significant even at the 99% confidence level. However, warming of the European
continent is not the same across the seasons. For example, in winter and spring, the warming is
larger in the north-eastern part of Europe than in the Mediterranean (Fig. 2-2 a,b). Such a
differential field in T2m is reflected on the Croatian region as well, where a temperature increase
in winter is slightly higher in the northern part (for approximately 1.8 °C), and less pronounced in
the southern parts of the country (about 1.5 °C; Fig. 2-2a). The warming in future climate,
indicated in Fig. 2-2a, is smaller, on average, for about 0.5-1.0 degree than the warming
obtained by EH5OM global model (Branković et al. 2010). In spring, an increase in temperature
is relatively uniform throughout Croatia (Fig. 2-2b), and, with the amplitude of warming of about
1.5 °C, it is quite similar to winter warming.
In summer and autumn, warming is more pronounced in south Europe and along the
coastal part of the Mediterranean (Fig. 2-2 c,d), and significantly exceeds the warming from
colder part of the year. For example, above the Iberian Peninsula, amplitude exceeds 4 °C in
summer, while in Croatia the warming is between 2 °C in the northern and almost 3 °C in the
southern part of the country. In autumn, the T2m increase will be between 1.5 °C in a larger
portion of the continental Croatia and slightly above 2 °C in the coastal zone, as well as in Istria
and the Dalmatian hinterland. In summer, the warming is similar to that from the winter period
(Fig. 2-2c), and for approximately 1 °C smaller than in EH5OM global model. The differences in
the future T2m warming between global and regional model can be the consequence of various
factors or of their combination. Probably the main source of largest differences between the
models is differently defined parameterization of unresolved physical processes. However, the
differences could be also attributed to a more detailed (better) orography resolution in the
regional model.
The above warming is calculated as the mean value of the three-member ensemble.
Unlike the ensemble mean, change in temperature interannual variability, expressed by
standard deviation, indicates only a slight increase of temperature variability in future climate
(not shown). The T2m standard deviation has a maximum a little higher than 0.3 °C in summer
in the eastern and southern Croatia – that is much lower than mean values from Fig. 2-2. In
autumn and winter, the change in variability is even smaller, with no change at all in spring.
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