Observed climate changes in Croatia Climate change scenario

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19-May 9-May 29-Apr 19-Apr 9-Apr DARUVAR (1961-2008) COMMON LILAC - beginning of flowering 30-Mar y = -0.2184x + 117.43 20-Mar 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 year 5-Dec 25-Nov 15-Nov 5-Nov 26-Oct 16-Oct y = 0.1748x + 310.3 6-Oct 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 year 28-Jun 18-Jun 8-Jun 29-May 19-May 9-May 29-Apr DARUVAR (1969-2008) APPLE - leaf fall RAB (1961-2008) OLIVE - beginning of flowering y = -0.2603x + 155.21 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 year 19-May 9-May 29-Apr 19-Apr 9-Apr ZAGREB (1961-2008) COMMON LILAC - beginnig of flowering 30-Mar y = 0.016x + 110.92 20-Mar 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 year 25-Nov 15-Nov 5-Nov 26-Oct 16-Oct 6-Oct 26-Sep 15-Nov 5-Nov 26-Oct 16-Oct 6-Oct 26-Sep 16-Sep 6-Sep GOSPIĆ (1968-2008) APPLE - leaf fall y = -0.2988x + 309.32 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 year HVAR (1962-2008) OLIVE - first ripe fruits y = -0.2624x + 296.67 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 year Figure 3-2. Time series of phenological phases of common lilac, apple and olive trees, 5-year flexible mean values and linear trends for Daruvar, Zagreb, Gospić, Rab and Hvar mostly within the period 1961–2008. x is a number of years (1,2…n). References: Mitchell J. M. Jr., Dzerdzeevskii B., Flohn H., Hofmeyr W. L., Lamb H.H., Rao K.H., C.C. Wallen: 1966: Climatic Change, WMO Tech. Note 79, 58–75. Vučetić, M., V. Vučetić, 1996: The phenological analysis of almond culture along the Adriatic coast, Biometeorology, 14, 247–254. Vučetić, M., Ž. Lončar, 2006: Growing degree days between the phenological phases of forest trees and shrubs in the NW part of Croatia, Zbornik sažetaka s 6 th European Conference on Applied Climatology, Ljubljana, 4–8. rujna 2006, 1 str. (CD-ROM). Vučetić, V., M. Vučetić, 2003: Fenološke značajke na području Zavižana, Šumarski list, 7-8, 359–372. 41
Vučetić, V., M. Vučetić, 2005: Variations of phenological stages of olive-trees along the Adriatic coast, Periodicum Biologorum, 107, 335–340. Vučetić, V., M. Vučetić, 2006: Phenological fluctuations as a possible signal of climatic changes in the Croatian mountain area, Meteorologische Zeitschift, 15, 2, 237–242. Vučetić, V., M. Vučetić, M., Ž. Lončar, 2008: History and present observations in Croatian plant phenology, poglavlje u knjizi, The history and current status of plant phenology in Europe (COST 725, Nekovar, J. (ur.)), 44–50. 42
Page 1 and 2: METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SER
Page 3 and 4: 1. Observed Climate Changes Detecti
Page 5 and 6: Table 1-2. Trends in mean annual an
Page 7 and 8: Table 1-4. Trends in indices of tem
Page 9 and 10: Tn90% (days) Tn90% (days) Tn90% (da
Page 11 and 12: days, wet days and very wet days),
Page 13 and 14: Precipitation anomalies (mm) Precip
Page 15 and 16: 1.3. Dry spells Detected significan
Page 17 and 18: Figure 1-7. Trend results for maxim
Page 19 and 20: 2. Climate Change Scenario 2.1. Int
Page 21 and 22: levels with the highest level at 10
Page 23 and 24: northern part of the domain, wherea
Page 25 and 26: shown), causing a slight increase i
Page 27 and 28: eduction is 1 mm in northern Croati
Page 29 and 30: objective statistical method. Inter
Page 31 and 32: Figure 2-1. Altitudinal temperature
Page 33 and 34: Figure 2-3. Wind at 10 m, future cl
Page 35 and 36: Figure 2-5. t-test significancy of
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2-7. Median number of hot da
Page 39 and 40: The flowering usually starts three
Page 41: Olive tree flowering is earlier 2 d
Page 45 and 46: within the season from May to Septe
Page 47: Increased forest fire risk, notifie

Observed climate changes in Croatia Climate change scenario

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