Observed climate changes in Croatia Climate change scenario

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Anomalies (days) Anomalies (days) Anomalies (days) Anomalies (days) Anomalies (days) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 OSIJEK DD1961-1990=271days -40 Trend=+1.0day/10yrs * -50 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Godine 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 ZAGREB-GRIČ DD1961-1990=266days -40 Trend=+1.4days/10yrs * -50 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Godine 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 GOSPIĆ DD1961-1990=254days -40 Trend=+1.4days/10yrs -50 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Godine 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 CRIKVENICA DD1961-1990=268days -40 Trend=+2.3days/10yrs * -50 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Godine 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 HVAR DD1961-1990=288days -40 Trend=+1.1day/10yrs * -50 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Godine n (days) n (days) n (days) n (days) n (days) 60 50 40 30 20 10 OSIJEK TrendR75=-0.2days/10yrs TrendR95=-0.1days/10yrs 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 ZAGREB-GRIČ TrendR75=+0.1days/10yrs TrendR95=+0.1days/10yrs 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 GOSPIĆ TrendR75=-0.2days/10yrs TrendR95=+0.0days/10yrs 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 CRIKVENICA TrendR75=-0.5days/10yrs * TrendR95=-0.1days/10yrs 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Years 60 50 40 30 20 10 HVAR TrendR75=-0.2days/10yrs TrendR95=-0.0days/10yrs 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Years Figure 1-5. Time series for the number of dry days (left), unit is anomalies (days) with respect to 1961- 1990 average. On the right time series for the number of moderate wet days (Rd>R75% - above) and very wet days (Rd>R95% - below), related 11-year binomial moving averages and trends (* - trends significant at the 5% level). Period: 1901-2008. (Gospić: 1924-2008). 13
1.3. Dry spells Detected significant positive trend in number of dry days in the area of Croatia raises the question on frequency of consecutive dry days. Variations of dry sequences are analysed imploying daily precipitaiton data from the period 1961-2000 at 25 meteorological stations, which uniformly comprise main climate zones in Croatia (continental, mountain and maritime). Dry spell is defined as a sequence of days with daily precipitation amount (Rd) less than defined threshold. Seasonal and annual mean and maximum durations of dry spells have been analyzed for precipitation threshold of 1 mm and 10 mm. Trend is expressed as depature per decade in relation to the respective long-term mean value. Results of trend analysis indicate prevailing increase of mean annual duration of dry spells with Rd < 1 mm . It is statistically significant in Istria (5 to 6%/10years) and on southern islands (Hvar and Lastovo 5%/10years) (Figure 1-6). Increase of dry spells on annual basis is a result of prevailing increase in all seasons, except in autumn, when negative trend has been observed. The most significant changes have been detected in spring, especially in northern Adriatic (8 to 11%/10years). Analysis of annual maximum dry spells with Rd < 1 mm does not reveal any significant positive or negative trend in Croatia (Figure 1-6). Positive trend prevails in spring and it is statistically significant in northern Adriatic (9 to 11%/10years), while negative trend prevails in autumn, which is significant only in Rijeka, Šibenik and Osijek (9 to 12%/10years). Analysis of annual mean durations of dry spells for daily precipitation threshold of 10 mm indicates prevailing positive trend in Croatia, significant in Istria and Dubrovnik (6 to 8%/10years) (Figure 1-6). Negative, but statistically insignificant trend has been observed only in lowlands of Croatia. Statistical significance of trend at annual scale is mostly forced by winter and summer significant increase of mean dry spells. Still, positive trend, statistically the most significant one, has been observed in spring; while in autumn, durations of mean dry spells with Rd < 10 mm decline, especially in the area of Slavonija (10 to 11%/10years). Maximum dry spells have being increased along the coast (10 to 11 %/10years), while reduced in the inland (8 %/10years) (Figure 1-7). Such annual trend of maximum dry spells is mostly contributed by summer variations. Prevailing increase of dry spells at the Adriatic, as well as poorly expressed trend in the continental area contribute to the fact that Croatia remains within the transitional area between the northern Europe with general tendency of precipitation increase, and the drying Mediterranean. 14
Page 1 and 2: METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SER
Page 3 and 4: 1. Observed Climate Changes Detecti
Page 5 and 6: Table 1-2. Trends in mean annual an
Page 7 and 8: Table 1-4. Trends in indices of tem
Page 9 and 10: Tn90% (days) Tn90% (days) Tn90% (da
Page 11 and 12: days, wet days and very wet days),
Page 13: Precipitation anomalies (mm) Precip
Page 17 and 18: Figure 1-7. Trend results for maxim
Page 19 and 20: 2. Climate Change Scenario 2.1. Int
Page 21 and 22: levels with the highest level at 10
Page 23 and 24: northern part of the domain, wherea
Page 25 and 26: shown), causing a slight increase i
Page 27 and 28: eduction is 1 mm in northern Croati
Page 29 and 30: objective statistical method. Inter
Page 31 and 32: Figure 2-1. Altitudinal temperature
Page 33 and 34: Figure 2-3. Wind at 10 m, future cl
Page 35 and 36: Figure 2-5. t-test significancy of
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2-7. Median number of hot da
Page 39 and 40: The flowering usually starts three
Page 41 and 42: Olive tree flowering is earlier 2 d
Page 43 and 44: Vučetić, V., M. Vučetić, 2005:
Page 45 and 46: within the season from May to Septe
Page 47: Increased forest fire risk, notifie

Observed climate changes in Croatia Climate change scenario

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