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Project Cycle Management Training Handbook - CFCU

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<strong>Project</strong> <strong>Cycle</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>Training</strong> <strong>Handbook</strong><br />

Beware of 'killer'<br />

assumptions!<br />

Figure 16: The Role of Assumptions<br />

Critical Assumptions<br />

➱ Define the systems environment and sustainability issues<br />

➱ Factors which project management cannot, or chooses<br />

not to control<br />

➱ Outside the project’s interventions<br />

➱ Essential to project success: necessary conditions<br />

➱ Results-to-purpose assumptions are the critical success<br />

factors<br />

A useful way of assessing the importance of assumptions is with the<br />

algorithm in Figure 17. Once assumptions have been identified, they<br />

are stated in terms of the desired situation. In this way they can be<br />

verified and assessed.<br />

Figure 17: The Assumptions Algorithm<br />

Assessment of Assumptions<br />

Will it be realised?<br />

Almost certainly<br />

Likely<br />

Unlikely<br />

Redesign the project by adding<br />

activities or results; reformulate the<br />

<strong>Project</strong> Purpose if necessary<br />

3.3.4 Factors Ensuring Sustainability<br />

Is external factor important?<br />

Yes No<br />

Yes<br />

Do not include in logframe<br />

Do not include in logframe<br />

Include as an assumption<br />

Is it possible to redesign the project in<br />

order to influence the external factor?<br />

No<br />

The project is not feasible<br />

A project can be said to be sustainable when it continues to deliver<br />

benefits to the project beneficiaries for an extended period after the<br />

main part of the donor assistance has been completed. Too often in<br />

the past it has been found that projects have failed to deliver<br />

sustainable benefits because they did not take sufficient account of a<br />

number of critical success factors. Experience has demonstrated that<br />

the longer-term sustainability of project benefits depends on the<br />

following factors:<br />

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