Energy: Oil & Gas - Bahamas Petroleum Company Plc

More documents

Recommendations

Info

November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P Strong core value and high re-rating potential provides a compelling investment case Although investment cases in companies with no exploration, or high-impact explorers with little core value can be compelling, we see a combination of high impact exploration in companies where the valuation is well supported by the core value in the company as attractive. Bowleven, Coastal, Rockhopper, Det Norske and Faroe stand out as being particularly attractive from this perspective; these companies feature as winners in our Balanced Explorers screen. We note that a number of companies such as Salamander, Gulfsands and Aminex are very close to making it into this screen. Exhibit 25: % of value in core vs. short term exploration upside potential Upsides excluding adjustments 220% 170% Melrose Resources Aurelian Coastal Energy 120% Heritage Oil 70% Tower Resources DNO Cove Energy Sterling Energy Rockhopper Faroe Petroleum Salamander Lundin Petroleum Gulfsands Det Norske 20% Less material re‐ BPC rating potential ‐20% Chariot Oil & Gas partially priced into ‐30% stock Gulf Keystone Dominion 30% Encore Tullow 80% JKX PA Resources Valiant Petroleum Aminex Plc Soco Maurel & Prom Premier Oil Nautical Petroleum Northern Petroleum Dana Petroleum Amerisur Enquest Green Dragon Dragon Oil Regal Great Eastern Energy Ithaca 130% Bankers petroleum Norse Energy 180% Cheap core value Exploration upside within 12 months Short term re‐ rating potential comes at a cost Borders & Southern (1347% re-rating potential, 22% core value / price), FOGL (1694%, 22%), Desire(,356% -4$, Max 304%,-5%, Serica 304%, 82%). BPC, Chariot, exhibit 0% uplift as drilling is medium-term and exhibit shows only short term re-rating potential. Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Hardy Oil Noreco Core value / price Bowleven Free, material short term re‐rating potential Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 24
November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P Exhibit 26: % of asset portfolio value linked to oil % of value levered to oil / gas 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Regional and hydrocarbon exposure Our E&P universe is heavily levered to oil with over 75% of the average company’s portfolio value being generated from oil. Of the remaining value, 12% is gas that we believe will be linked to oil prices in the long run (primarily LNG and European gas exposure). There are relatively few companies with substantial exposure to what we would regard as independently priced gas (being primarily emerging market gas and Henry Hub). Regionally, the companies are most levered to Europe, although the universe exhibits a diversified spread through Europe, Africa the Americas, Asia and the Middle East. The Americas value is primarily driven by South America, with Norse Energy and Nighthawk offering the only ways to gain exposure to the unconventional plays in North America. The majority of Middle Eastern exposure is obtained via Kurdistan, with Gulfsands present in Syria and Dragon Oil 100% levered to Turkmenistan. Bankers petroleum Borders and Southern Amerisur Desire Petroleum Falkland Oil & Gas Global Energy Development Gulf Keystone Rockhopper Max Petroleum BPC Soco DNO Enquest Gulfsands Chariot Oil & Gas Sterling Energy Bowleven Lundin Petroleum Maurel & Prom Valiant Petroleum Tullow Nautical Petroleum Dragon Oil Heritage Oil Faroe Petroleum Noreco Coastal Energy Tower Resources Nighthawk Energy PA Resources Encore Det Norske Dana Petroleum Dominion Aminex Plc Cove Energy Ithaca Premier Oil Salamander Serica Melrose Resources Panoro Regal Northern Petroleum Aurelian Hardy Oil JKX Igas Norse Energy Great Eastern Energy Green Dragon Oil Oil‐levered gas Independently priced gas Exhibit 27: Regional exposure by company Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 25 % exposure to region 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Enquest Ithaca Igas Bankers petroleum Det Norske Noreco Valiant Petroleum Nautical Petroleum JKX Faroe Petroleum Encore Aurelian Northern Petroleum Regal Lundin Petroleum Dana Petroleum Serica Premier Oil PA Resources Heritage Oil Melrose Resources DNO Tullow Global Energy Development Norse Energy Nighthawk Energy Amerisur Rockhopper Borders and Southern Desire Petroleum Falkland Oil & Gas BPC Panoro Aminex Plc Gulfsands Maurel & Prom Bowleven Cove Energy Dominion Chariot Oil & Gas Tower Resources Sterling Energy Soco Great Eastern Energy Dragon Oil Coastal Energy Salamander Green Dragon Hardy Oil Gulf Keystone Max Petroleum Europe Americas Africa Asia & Middle East
Page 1 and 2: November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oi
Page 23: November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oi
Page 75 and 76:
November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oi
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
Page 241 and 242:
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
Page 253 and 254:
Page 255 and 256:
Page 257 and 258:
Page 259 and 260:
Page 261 and 262:
Page 263 and 264:
Page 265 and 266:
Page 267 and 268:
Page 269 and 270:
Page 271 and 272:
Page 273 and 274:
Page 275 and 276:
Page 277 and 278:
Page 279 and 280:
Page 281 and 282:
Page 283 and 284:
Page 285 and 286:
Page 287 and 288:
Page 289:
show all

Energy: Oil & Gas - Bahamas Petroleum Company Plc

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?