Energy: Oil & Gas - Bahamas Petroleum Company Plc

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November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P The play openers: Re-rating potential through time The pure leverage of Cove, Rockhopper and Desire to the new basins results in high levels of re-rating potential in the event of success at all the plays we have modeled in our valuations, while the size and high risk involved in the potentially large volumes in the D9 block mean that the potential uplift for Hardy is also significant. For Tullow and Green Dragon the impact of converting prospective resource into reserves is more limited, not because the volumes involved are insignificant but because we already see substantial value in the companies’ already de-risked assets, muting the impact of future resource conversion. Exhibit 53: Re-rating potential through time of drilling in new basins Potential uplift to our valuation in the event of 100% success 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% Desire Petroleum Hardy Oil Rockhopper Cove Energy Tullow Green Dragon Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 44
November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P M&A screens: Look for cheap core value in sizable assets In our view, larger oil companies will struggle for organic growth in the medium term, increasing the attractiveness of smaller companies with large, concentrated resource bases. We have tested the industry’s ability to create value organically in our Top 280 Projects to Change the World (January 15, 2010) by calculating the reserves discovered by companies since 2000 (excluding non-exploration led areas such as heavy oil, exploitation, unconventional gas, Russia and adjusting for asset transactions) and their value at the time of discovery (i.e. before development). Exhibit 54 shows the value of this exploration success as a % of EV. For only seven companies has the exploration success of the past decade created more than 30% of the current market cap with the Majors having added less than 10% of current market cap. The rest of the value of the companies comes from the older legacy assets, from the capital invested to develop these reserves, and from their time value. We believe that this lack of organic growth will force larger companies to grow inorganically, making strategic reserves, and followon potential of low risk exploration upside an important consideration in assessing the attractiveness of E&P companies. Exhibit 54: Value added through exploration by large companies since 2000 NPV of discovered hydrocarbon resources at the time of discovery as a % of EV (as of Jan 2010) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Soco INPEX Tullow Galp Petrobras BG Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Murphy Anadarko Marathon Woodside Chevron Noble Energy Repsol Hess Reliance BP TOTAL Encana CNOOC Statoil Nexen ConocoPhillips RDShell Petrochina Devon Energy ENI ExxonMobil Apache Husky Energy Sinopec Corp BHP Billiton Exhibit 55: Reserves added from exploration by large companies since 2000 Discovered hydrocarbon resources as a % of corporate 2008 SEC reserves as of Jan 2010 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 45 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Galp INPEX Tullow BG Murphy Reliance Petrobras Woodside Repsol Marathon Noble Energy Soco ENI Sinopec Corp Anadarko Husky Energy TOTAL Chevron Statoil Apache CNOOC Hess RDShell BP BHP Billiton ConocoPhillips ExxonMobil Petrochina Nexen Encana Devon Energy Lukoil
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Energy: Oil & Gas - Bahamas Petroleum Company Plc

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