Energy: Oil & Gas - Bahamas Petroleum Company Plc

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November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P Upcoming catalysts most significant for Falklands drillers Bowleven and Hardy Of the exploration wells spudded in 3Q 2010 for which we are still awaiting results, Bowleven’s Sapele well is of particular significance. Other significant catalysts to watch for include the deeper section of Sterling’s Sangaw North Prospect. Hardy’s Indian programme in the KG basin should also provide significant materiality, as should Desire’s continuing exploration programme. In terms of potential upside materiality we expect 1Q 2011 to be dominated by wells in Falklands from Borders and Southern and Desire. Exhibit 30: Potential impact of exploration catalysts spudded in 4Q 2010 Potential upside in event of 100% success Potential uplift in the event of 100% success in Q4 2010 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Hardy Oil Bowleven Desire Petroleum Coastal Energy Sterling Energy Faroe Petroleum Aurelian Serica Noreco JKX DNO Det Norske Lundin Petroleum Gulf Keystone Premier Oil Gulfsands Encore Max Petroleum Dana Petroleum Heritage Oil Maurel & Prom Tullow Dominion Nautical Petroleum Rockhopper PA Resources Northern Petroleum Melrose Resources Valiant Petroleum Panoro Bankers petroleum Cove Energy Borders and Southern Aminex Plc Amerisur Falkland Oil & Gas Global Energy Development Tower Resources Norse Energy Regal Enquest Chariot Oil & Gas Nighthawk Energy Ithaca Great Eastern Energy BPC Soco Igas Dragon Oil Salamander Green Dragon Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 31: Potential impact of exploration catalysts to spud in 1Q 2011 Potential upside in event of 100% success Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 28 Potential uplift in the event of 100% success in Q1 2011 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% Borders and Southern Desire Petroleum Max Petroleum Noreco DNO Panoro Rockhopper Aminex Plc Coastal Energy PA Resources Encore Det Norske Northern Petroleum Premier Oil Nautical Petroleum Dana Petroleum Lundin Petroleum Gulf Keystone Hardy Oil Tullow JKX Gulfsands Maurel & Prom Falkland Oil & Gas Valiant Petroleum Faroe Petroleum Amerisur Global Energy Development Dominion Bowleven Sterling Energy Tower Resources Melrose Resources Norse Energy Serica Regal Enquest Chariot Oil & Gas Nighthawk Energy Ithaca Cove Energy Great Eastern Energy Aurelian Bankers petroleum BPC Soco Igas Dragon Oil Heritage Oil Salamander Green Dragon
November 5, 2010 Europe: Energy: Oil & Gas - E&P Falklands dominates early 2011; East Africa becomes more important into 3Q Expected drilling catalysts in the South Falklands basin again provide the most potential upside for Borders & Southern and FOGL on our estimates in 2Q 2011. Rockhopper could also see additional activity in the Northern basin while we expect Hardy’s exploration programme to continue; Max Petroleum’s Kazakh programme is also of interest. We believe Tower could see an additional well in Uganda and currently model a well in Turkey for Melrose. In 3Q 2011 we expect East Africa to continue to be important with Cove likely to be drilling. We note that a farm-out and rig availability could lead to a well in Tanzania for Dominion but currently estimate its potentially significant Alpha well to spud towards the end of 2011. Serica’s Irish campaign could potentially be high impact. We also note that the Rovuma onshore well, which we currently model as being drilled in 4Q 2011, is of great potential significance to Aminex. Aurelian’s Polish exploration could be material over a similar timeframe. Exhibit 32: Potential impact of exploration catalysts to spud in 2Q 2011 Potential upside in event of 100% success Potential uplift in the event of 100% success in Q2 2011 1800% 1600% 1400% 1200% 1000% 800% 600% 400% 200% 0% Falkland Oil & Gas Borders and Southern Max Petroleum Heritage Oil Melrose Resources Tower Resources Noreco Desire Petroleum Hardy Oil Regal Valiant Petroleum Aurelian Bowleven Cove Energy Serica Rockhopper Det Norske Faroe Petroleum Coastal Energy Maurel & Prom PA Resources Lundin Petroleum Gulfsands Nautical Petroleum Tullow JKX Enquest Dana Petroleum Premier Oil Gulf Keystone Dominion Amerisur Aminex Plc Global Energy Development Northern Petroleum Sterling Energy Norse Energy Panoro DNO Chariot Oil & Gas Nighthawk Energy Ithaca Great Eastern Energy Bankers petroleum BPC Soco Encore Igas Dragon Oil Salamander Green Dragon Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 33: Potential impact of exploration catalysts to spud in 3Q 2011 Potential upside in event of 100% success Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 29 Potential uplift in the event of 100% success in Q3 2011 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Serica Aurelian Cove Energy Gulfsands Coastal Energy Melrose Resources Noreco Rockhopper Encore Faroe Petroleum Bowleven JKX Amerisur Northern Petroleum Hardy Oil Nautical Petroleum Maurel & Prom Gulf Keystone Borders and Southern Max Petroleum Tower Resources Heritage Oil Regal PA Resources Lundin Petroleum Det Norske Valiant Petroleum Dana Petroleum Premier Oil Dominion Aminex Plc Desire Petroleum Falkland Oil & Gas Global Energy Development Sterling Energy Norse Energy Panoro DNO Enquest Chariot Oil & Gas Nighthawk Energy Ithaca Great Eastern Energy Bankers petroleum BPC Soco Igas Dragon Oil Salamander Tullow Green Dragon
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Energy: Oil & Gas - Bahamas Petroleum Company Plc

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