BDI-International Magazine - Issue-3

How Does
COVID-19 Compare
to Past Pandemics?
Praachi K. Verma | Medical Breakthroughs & Health Tips
COVID-19
• Caused by: SARS-CoV-2
• Place of origin: Wuhan, China
• R0: 2-3
• CFR: 3.4% globally
• Treatment: No treatment available,
only supportive care is provided.
Antibiotics help to treat secondary
infections and some antivirals help in
recovery.
R naught (R0) is a mathematical equation
to calculate the average number of people
one sick person will infect. The range for
COVID-19 is 2-3. R0 represents the
epidemic potential of a pathogen, but the
numbers are highly situation-dependent.
Situations like dense population, poor
socio-economic conditions, the
prevalence of malnutrition and other
illnesses, and climatic factors increase the
intensity of disease outbreak. R0 is a useful
metric for health authorities, as an R0
lower than 1 causes the disease to die out
in a population. Since there is a lot of
uncertainty about the novel coronavirus
outbreak, things become challenging for
public health agencies to figure out how
to effectively lower the R0.
for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC), the scale of the 1918 influenza
strain might be the best match to
understand the pattern of COVID-19
outbreak.
With an R0 of 2, COVID-19 is slightly
more infectious than the Spanish Flu.
While the 1918 flu was more widespread
and mostly affected the younger
population (20 to 50 year-olds), COVID-19
is more dangerous for older adults.
Hong Kong Flu-1968
• Caused by: H3N2
• Place of origin: Hong Kong
• R0: 1.2-3
• CFR: 0.5%
• Treatment: Antibiotics were effective
against secondary bacterial infections
The H1N1 viruses were the ancestors of
H2 & H3 variants. That being said, when
H3N2 first emerged in 1968, people who
were over 50 had their immunity set by
other similar viruses that circulated since
1918. The improved health care system
coupled with the developed immunity of
the aged population resulted in a lower
CFR of the H3N2 as compared to the 1918
outbreak.
Nevertheless, the Hong Kong Flu was one
of the biggest flus of the 20th century. In
comparison to the 1968 flu, even with a
higher CFR, COVID-19 is less widespread
and has resulted in fewer deaths so far.
SARS-2003
• Caused by: SARS-CoV
• Place of origin: Guangdong province,
Southern China
• R0: 2-5
• CFR: 15%
After the concept of civilization emerged, the increased contact within different
populations of humans, animals, and ecosystems paved the way for the spread
of infectious diseases. The small and dispersed population of the pre-globalization
era helped to contain the spread of these illnesses. However, cross-continental trade and
travel soon changed the ecology to act as a driving force for the global outbreak of these
epidemics. Pandemics have ever since persisted throughout human history.
After the World Health Organization
(WHO) designated the novel coronavirus
a pandemic, desperate measures have
been implemented by more than 100
countries across the world to contain and
map its spread. With the confirmed cases
crossing the 2 million mark globally, it’s
natural to compare it to other historical
pandemics that reshaped the history
of mankind.
We all know that the bubonic plague, or
the black death of the 14th century, that
killed more than 200 million across the
world was the most lethal pandemic of all.
The smallpox pandemic comes second as
one of the deadliest pandemics. It has
claimed more than 50 million lives
worldwide. The first-ever vaccine was
developed against this disease and until
today, smallpox is the only human disease
that has been successfully eradicated.
Before we compare COVID-19 to the
other deadliest outbreaks, it is important
to discuss certain metrics that define the
impact of a particular disease.
CFR, or Case Fatality Rate, indicates the
number of people who have died after
contracting the disease. This rate differs
according to location, lifestyle, and age.
For instance, the CFR for COVID-19 in
China has been 4%, while in Italy, it is
close to 10%.
The Spanish Flu Pandemic-1918
• Caused by: H1N1
• R0: 1.8
• CFR: 2.5%
• Treatment: None, antibiotics and
antivirals didn’t exist back then.
The influenza pandemic of 1918, which
caused close to 50 million deaths
worldwide, was the third deadliest in the
history of pandemics. Though the
COVID-19 outbreak is not caused by the
influenza virus, according to the Centers
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