ICFBR 2011International Conference on Fire Behaviour and RiskAlghero, Italy - October 4-6, 2011modellazione multifase e i modelli che accoppiano incen<strong>di</strong>o-combustibile-atmosfera rappresentano l‘approccio più completofinora sviluppato. Qualunque sia la classificazione, tutti concordano sul fatto che devono essere utilizzati i modelli semplici sesi intende fornire <strong>degli</strong> strumenti operativi in tempo reale. Al contrario, i modelli <strong>di</strong> simulazione multi<strong>di</strong>mensionali, numerici efluido-<strong>di</strong>namici devono essere utilizzati per stu<strong>di</strong>are il comportamento <strong>degli</strong> incen<strong>di</strong> boschivi e <strong>di</strong> quelli nell‘interfacciaurbano-rurale. Tuttavia, questi ultimi richiedono delle risorse computazionali che precludono le previsioni in tempo reale. Ilcosto computazionale della modellazione <strong>di</strong> incen<strong>di</strong> boschivi basati sulla fisica, limita l‘applicazione dell‘approccio allamodellazione del comportamento dell'incen<strong>di</strong>o entro una certa gamma <strong>di</strong> scale. Dall‘altra parte, il modello quasi-empirico edempirico potrebbe essere molto efficiente per il combustibile e le con<strong>di</strong>zioni ambientali confrontabili a quelle <strong>degli</strong> incen<strong>di</strong> <strong>di</strong>prova, ma l‘assenza <strong>di</strong> una reale descrizione fisica li rende inapplicabili ad altre situazioni. Il <strong>di</strong>lemma è se si vuole simulare ilfenomeno <strong>di</strong> un incen<strong>di</strong>o boschivo in modo accurato o rapido. Lo scopo <strong>di</strong> questa comunicazione è duplice. Presenteremoprima alcuni dei trend più importanti nella modellazione del comportamento <strong>degli</strong> incen<strong>di</strong>. Sulla base <strong>di</strong> questa analisispiegheremo le ragioni per cui il modello semplice deve essere utilizzato se si vogliono sviluppare in tempo reale dei sistemi <strong>di</strong>sostegno alle decisioni da prendere per la gestione del territorio. In secondo luogo, confronteremo il presupposto modellisticoe le equazioni strutturali dei tre modelli <strong>di</strong> propagazione del fuoco utilizzati nei sistemi <strong>di</strong> sostegno alle decisioni per lecon<strong>di</strong>zioni me<strong>di</strong>terranee su scala paesaggistica. Infine, sarà presentato il lavoro realizzato nel progetto Proterina-C riguardantela strategia <strong>di</strong> modellazione della propagazione <strong>degli</strong> incen<strong>di</strong>.La capacité de la communauté travaillant sur les feux de forêt à modéliser et simuler la propagation de l‘incen<strong>di</strong>e de forêt et àdévelopper les approches et les techniques de gestion a considérablement évolué ces dernières années. La modélisation estdevenue un outil essentiel dans la recherche sur les incen<strong>di</strong>es de forêt et un instrument capital pour les études des incen<strong>di</strong>esdans l‘interface péri-urbaine, la lutte contre les incen<strong>di</strong>es et la cartographie du risque. Ces incen<strong>di</strong>es sont causés par desprocessus physiques et chimiques, opérant sur <strong>di</strong>fférentes échelles allant du micromètre au kilomètre. Leurs interactionsdépendent du couplage entre les phénomènes non linéaires, tels que la turbulence dans la partie inférieure de la couche limiteatmosphérique, la topographie, la végétation et l‘incen<strong>di</strong>e lui-même (réactions chimiques, transfert de chaleur par rayonnementet dégradation de la végétation). Différentes revues des modèles de propagation d‘incen<strong>di</strong>e ont été menées ces <strong>di</strong>x dernièresannées. Selon les auteurs, les modèles mathématiques des feux peuvent être classés selon la nature des équations (physique,quasi physique, quasi empirique et empirique) ou selon le système physique modélisé (modèles d‘incen<strong>di</strong>e de surface, modèlesde feux de cimes, modèles de brandons, modèles d‘incen<strong>di</strong>e au sol). En ce qui concerne la première classification, les modèlesles plus simples sont les modèles statistiques qui n‘essayent pas d‘impliquer les mécanismes physiques. Les modèles empiriquessont basés sur la conservation de l‘énergie, mais ils ne <strong>di</strong>stinguent pas les modes de transfert de chaleur. Enfin, les modèlesphysiques <strong>di</strong>fférentient les <strong>di</strong>vers types de transfert de chaleur pour pré<strong>di</strong>re le comportement de l‘incen<strong>di</strong>e. Parmi eux, lamodélisation multiphasique et les modèles d‘atmosphère-combustible-incen<strong>di</strong>e couplés représentent l‘approche la pluscomplète développée à ce jour. Quelle que soit la classification, il y a un accord général sur le fait que les modèles simplesdoivent être utilisés si l‘on veut créer des outils opérationnels en temps réel. Inversement, les modèles multi<strong>di</strong>mensionnels desimulation numérique de la dynamique des fluides doivent être utilisés pour l‘étude du comportement des incen<strong>di</strong>es et desincen<strong>di</strong>es de l‘interface péri-urbaine. Cependant, ces derniers modèles exigent des ressources de calcul qui excluent lesprévisions en temps réel. Le coût de calcul de la modélisation des incen<strong>di</strong>es basée sur la physique limite l‘application del‘approche à modéliser le comportement de l‘incen<strong>di</strong>e à une certaine échelle. D‘autre part, le modèle quasi empirique etempirique peut être très efficace pour les con<strong>di</strong>tions environnementales et de combustible, comparables à celles des incen<strong>di</strong>estest,mais l‘absence d‘une description physique réelle les rend inapplicables à d‘autres situations. Le <strong>di</strong>lemme est de savoir sil‘on veut simuler le phénomène de l‘incen<strong>di</strong>e avec exactitude ou avec rapi<strong>di</strong>té. L‘objectif de cette communication a deux volets.Nous présenterons d‘abord certaines des tendances les plus importantes dans la modélisation du comportement de l‘incen<strong>di</strong>e.Sur la base de cette revue, nous expliquerons pourquoi le modèle simple doit être utilisé si l‘on veut développer les systèmesd‘aide à la décision en temps réel. Ensuite, nous comparerons les hypothèses de modélisation et les équations structurales detrois modèles de propagation d‘incen<strong>di</strong>e, utilisées dans les systèmes de support de décision pour les con<strong>di</strong>tions de laMé<strong>di</strong>terranée à l‘échelle du paysage. Enfin, nous présenterons le travail mené dans le projet Proterina-C concernant la stratégiede modélisation de propagation de l‘incen<strong>di</strong>e.8
ICFBR 2011International Conference on Fire Behaviour and RiskAlghero, Italy - October 4-6, 2011PR.4 - IFI: applications at local and regional scale in the Euro-Me<strong>di</strong>terranean areaSpano D. 1,2 , Sirca C. 1,2 , Salis M. 1,2 , Bacciu V. 1,2 , Arca B. 3 , Duce P. 31. Department of Economics and Woody Plant Systems (DESA), University of Sassari, Italy; 2. Euro-Me<strong>di</strong>terraneanCenter for Climate Changes, IAFENT Division, Sassari, Italy; 3. National Research Council of Italy, Institute ofBiometeorology (CNR-IBIMET), Sassari, Italyspano@uniss.it, p.duce@ibimet.cnr.itEurope, especially in the Southern part, heavily experiences wildland fires. About 60,000 fires occur every year onaverage, burning more than 600,000 ha (EEA, 2003; JRC, 2007), and aside the statistical effects, there are morefires than a century ago (Moreno et al., 1998; Mouillot et al., 2005; Mouillot and Field, 2005). In these areas, theignition is mainly assignable to humans (voluntary or involuntary actions), but fires seems to be governed by weatherand climate (Piñol et al., 1998; Pausas 2004; Pereira et al., 2005); also vegetation plays a fundamental role. Basing onthis context, it is crucial the role of fire danger assessment, also in order to efficiently <strong>di</strong>stribute the fire-fightingresources and, in general, to optimize the fire planning and management. There are several and heterogeneousdefinitions of fire danger. Following the definition of Chuvieco et al. (2003), and Bachman and Allgöwer (1998),fire danger can be defined as ―the probability of a fire happens and its consequences‖. Estimating fire danger isobtained by the identification of potentially contributing variables and integrating them into a mathematicalexpression, i.e. an index. IFI (Integrated Fire Index) is a fire danger index originally developed for Sar<strong>di</strong>nia, Italy. Thegeneral index structure includes four codes: 1) Drought Code (DC) linked to water status of plants; 2) Meteo Code(MC) related to turbulence and weather con<strong>di</strong>tions; 3) Fuel Code (FC) which takes into account fuel characteristicsand moisture; 4) Topological Code (TC) which considers slope and aspect of the study area. IFI is operatively use<strong>di</strong>n Sar<strong>di</strong>nia by the Regional Forestry Corp as tool to forecast fire danger using daily weather forecast. In Proterina C,an improved version of IFI was developed and tested. In this presentation, an overview of the IFI applications isshowed both at local and regional scales. At local scale, IFI was tested for several years in Sar<strong>di</strong>nia (Italy) and showedgood performances in order to pre<strong>di</strong>ct fire occurrence and burnt areas. At regional scale, IFI also showed good skills,in conjunction to the Seasonal climatic Pre<strong>di</strong>ction System of CMCC (Euro-Me<strong>di</strong>terranean Centre on ClimateChange), to pre<strong>di</strong>ct the seasonal fire danger in the EuroMe<strong>di</strong>terranean area.Keywords: wildfire, Me<strong>di</strong>terranean, fire dangerL‘Europa, soprattutto gli stati meri<strong>di</strong>onali, è pesantemente soggetta agli incen<strong>di</strong> boschivi. Ogni anno, in me<strong>di</strong>a, siverificano circa 60,000 incen<strong>di</strong>, che bruciano più <strong>di</strong> 600,000 ettari (EEA, 2003; JRC, 2007), e a parte gli effettistatistici, ci sono più fuochi <strong>di</strong> un secolo fa (Moreno et al., 1998; Mouillot et al , 2005; Mouillot e Field, 2005). Inqueste aree, i fattori che giocano un ruolo chiave nell‘innesco e nella propagazione <strong>degli</strong> incen<strong>di</strong>, oltre all‘attivitàantropica (con azioni volontarie o involontarie), sono le con<strong>di</strong>zioni meteorologiche e climatiche (Piñol et al., 1998;.Pausas 2004;. Pereira et al., 2005), nonché lo stato e le caratteristiche della vegetazione. Al fine <strong>di</strong> <strong>di</strong>stribuire inmodo efficiente le risorse antincen<strong>di</strong>o e, in generale, per ottimizzare la pianificazione e la gestione del fuoco, lavalutazione del pericolo d'incen<strong>di</strong>o assume un ruolo fondamentale. Esistono <strong>di</strong>verse definizioni <strong>di</strong> pericolo incen<strong>di</strong>o.Seguendo quelle <strong>di</strong> Chuvieco et al. (2003) e <strong>di</strong> Bachman e Allgöwer (1998), il pericolo <strong>di</strong> incen<strong>di</strong>o può esseredefinito come "la probabilità che si verifichi un incen<strong>di</strong>o e le sue conseguenze". La stima del pericolo <strong>di</strong> incen<strong>di</strong>o siottiene attraverso l'identificazione delle variabili che contribuiscono potenzialmente al pericolo e la loro integrazionein un‘espressione matematica, per esempio un in<strong>di</strong>ce. L‘in<strong>di</strong>ce IFI (In<strong>di</strong>ce Fuoco Integrato) è un in<strong>di</strong>ce <strong>di</strong> pericoloincen<strong>di</strong>o originariamente sviluppato per la Sardegna (Italia). La struttura generale dell'in<strong>di</strong>ce comprende quattroco<strong>di</strong>ci: 1) Co<strong>di</strong>ce <strong>di</strong> Siccità (DC) legato allo stato idrico della vegetazione, 2) Co<strong>di</strong>ce Meteo (MC) relativo allecon<strong>di</strong>zioni meteorologiche e <strong>di</strong> turbolenza; 3) Co<strong>di</strong>ce del Combustibile (FC) che prende in considerazione lecaratteristiche del combustibile e la sua umi<strong>di</strong>tà; 4) Co<strong>di</strong>ce topografico (TC) che considera la pendenza e esposizionedell'area <strong>di</strong> stu<strong>di</strong>o. L‘IFI è attualmente utilizzato in Sardegna dal Corpo Forestale Regionale come strumento per laprevisione del pericolo <strong>di</strong> incen<strong>di</strong>o a partire da previsioni meteorologiche giornaliere. Nell‘ambito del progettoPROTERINA C è stata sviluppata e testata una versione migliorata dell‘IFI. In questa presentazione verrà illustratauna panoramica delle applicazioni IFI a scala locale e regionale. A scala locale, l‘IFI è stato testato per <strong>di</strong>versi anni inSardegna e ha mostrato buone prestazioni al fine <strong>di</strong> prevedere il verificarsi <strong>di</strong> incen<strong>di</strong>. A scala regionale, l‘IFI haSESSION 1: European Projects on Forest Fires9
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Photo Courtesy of Sardinian Forest