Untitled - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche

S.J. Kay, R.E. Witcher
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ABSTRACT
This paper discusses the results of an inductive predictive modelling experiment on
Roman settlement data from the middle Tiber valley, Italy. The study forms part of the British
School at Rome’s Tiber Valley Project, which since its inception in 1997 has been assessing
the changing landscapes of the Tiber Valley from protohistory through to the medieval period.
The aim of this present study is to broaden understanding of settlement patterns via predictive
modelling, and in particular to evaluate unevenness in eld survey coverage, survey bias and
past settlement location preferences. The predictive modelling method chosen was an application
of the statistical Weights of Evidence extension for ESRI ArcView. The results highlight
associations between Roman settlement and environmental themes that provide moderate
predictive potential and suggest that further experimentation might prove valuable.
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