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N38/963 от 10.12.2018 e-mail: info@gorizont.com Simply the best
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Phillip Inman
The world economy is at risk of
another financial meltdown, following
the failure of governments
and regulators to push through all
the reforms needed to protect the
system from reckless behaviour,
the International Monetary Fund
has warned.
With global debt levels well
above those at the time of the
last crash in 2008, the risk remains
that unregulated parts of
the financial system could trigger
a global panic, the Washington-based
lender of last resort
said.
Much has been done to shore
up the reserves of banks in the
last 10 years and to put in place
more rigorous oversight of the
financial sector, but «risks tend
to rise during good times, such
as the current period of low interest
rates and subdued volatility,
and those risks can always
migrate to new areas», the IMF
said, adding, «supervisors must
remain vigilant to these unfolding
events».
World economy at risk of another financial crash, says IMF
A dramatic rise in lending by
the so-called shadow banks in
China and the failure to impose
tough restrictions on insurance
companies and asset managers,
which handle trillions of dollars
of funds, are highlighted by the
IMF as causes for concern.
The growth of global banks
such as JP Morgan and the Industrial
and Commercial Bank of
China to a scale beyond that seen
in 2008, leading to fears that they
remain «too big fail», also registers
on the IMF’s radar.
The warning from the IMF
Global Financial Stability report
echoes similar concerns that
complacency among regulators
and a backlash against international
agreements, especially
from Donald Trump’s US administration,
has undermined efforts
to prepare for another downturn.
The former UK prime minister
Gordon Brown said last
month that the world economy
was «sleepwalking into a future
crisis,» and risks were not being
tackled now «we are in a leaderless
world».
Speaking this week before the
fund’s forthcoming annual meeting
– taking place next week on
the Indonesian island of Bali
– the IMF’s head, Christine Lagarde,
said she was concerned
that the total value of global debt,
in both the public and private sectors,
has rocketed by 60% in the
decade since the financial crisis to
reach an all-time high of $182tn
(?139tn).
She said the build-up made
developing world governments
and companies more vulnerable
to higher US interest rates, which
could trigger a flight of funds and
destabilise their economies. «This
should serve as a wake-up call,»
she said.
The stability report said the
development of digital trading
platforms and digital currencies
such as bitcoin, along with other
financial technology companies,
had been rapid. It said: «Despite
its potential benefits, our knowledge
of its potential risks and
how they might play out is still
developing. Increased cybersecurity
risks pose challenges for
financial institutions, financial
infrastructure, and supervisors.
These developments should act
as a reminder that the financial
system is permanently evolving,
and regulators and supervisors
must remain vigilant to this evolution
and ready to act if needed.»
In a separate analysis, as part
of the IMF’s annual economic
outlook, it warned that «large
challenges loom for the global
economy to prevent a second
Great Depression».
It said the huge rise in borrowing
by corporates and government
at cheap interest rates had
not shown up in higher levels
of research and development or
more general investment in infrastructure.
This trend since the collapse
of Lehman Brothers, which triggered
the global financial crisis,
had limited the growth potential
of all countries and not just
those which suffered the most in
the aftermath of the crash. It had
also left the global economy in a
weaker position, especially as it
The Most Common Myths About Voter Registration, Debunked
enters a period when a downturn
is possible.
The IMF said: «The sequence
of aftershocks and policy responses
that followed the Lehman
bankruptcy has led to a world
economy in which the median
general government debt-GDP
ratio stands at 52%, up from 36%
before the crisis; central bank
balance sheets, particularly in
advanced economies, are several
multiples of the size they were before
the crisis; and emerging market
and developing economies
now account for 60% of global
GDP in purchasing-power-parity
terms – which compares with
44% in the decade before the crisis
– reflecting, in part, a weak recovery
in advanced economies.»
Like many institutions the
IMF has warned that rising levels
of inequality have a negative impact
on investment and productivity
as wealthier groups hoard
funds rather than re-invest them
in productive parts of the economy.
Without a rise in investment
economies remain vulnerable to
financial stress.
The midterm elections are
only a few weeks off, and if ever
there’s a time to participate in the
electoral process, it’s now. But as
of November 2016, only 70 percent
of U.S. citizens over age 18
were registered to vote, which
means that more than 65 million
people who are eligible to register
have not done so.
Some people don’t register
simply because they don’t want
to vote. But many others (and
maybe you’re among them) believe
that they can’t or shouldn’t
get registered because they’re not
allowed, or because their registration
could come at a personal
cost.
Are you actually ineligible to
vote? Is it true that you can protect
yourself by not registering?
Let’s examine some common
beliefs about the registration process
and find out.
«I can’t register to vote because
I don’t have an ID for the
state where I currently live.»
When you fill out a voter registration
form, you can use your
in-state ID OR the last four digits
of your social security number.
I’ll be honest with you: I moved
to a new state six months ago and
still haven’t bothered to get a new
driver’s license. But I registered to
vote here just as soon as I had an
address.
The only difference it makes
if you don’t have an in-state ID
is that you may need to bring a
federally-issued ID with you to
the polls in order to cast your
vote. HeadCount provides a list
of exactly which forms of ID are
acceptable at the polls in each
state (and we’ve got a list that
includes requirements for every
state here). But for registration,
simply your SSN is good enough.
Bottom line: You do not need
a current state-issued ID to register
to vote.
«If I don’t register to vote, I
won’t have to serve jury duty.»
In most states, voter registration
is one of many lists used
to call jurors. In Texas or New
York, for example, you can be
summoned for jury duty if your
name appears on a voter registration
list, or if you have a state ID;
have filed for income tax or unemployment;
etc. In these states,
being registered to vote makes
you no more likely to get called
for jury duty than simply having
a driver’s license.
States like California, Maine,
and Florida, on the other hand,
leave voter registration lists out
of the jury summons process
entirely; they use other lists (like
drivers licenses and utility company
lists) to find jurors.
This claim is not completely
baseless, however. It’s true that
there are some counties in a
handful of states that exclusively
use voter registration lists to
summon jurors. As far as I can
tell, they are Louisiana, Alabama,
South Dakota, and Tennessee’s
Eastern Districtand Western District
(but weirdly NOT Tennessee’s
Middle District). If avoiding
jury duty at all costs is your
ultimate goal, you can look at
your own district court’s website
to find out exactly how they get
you. (And if you want to go down
a deep rabbit hole of reading the
minutiae of your state’s statutes
on juror selection, have at it.)
Bottom line: In the majority
of states, registering to vote
makes you no more likely to get
called for jury duty than having a
state ID or paying state taxes.
«If I don’t register to vote, I
can’t be drafted into the military.»
This claim is entirely false.
Virtually all men must register
with Selective Service once they
turn 18, or before they turn 26—
even if you are an undocumented
immigrant, even if you are a citizen
living outside of the country,
even if you are an amputee. So
you definitely don’t get an exception
just because you’re not registered
to vote.
Bottom line: Voter registration
has nothing to do with the
draft.
«If I register to vote at my
new address, then I’ll have to
update my car insurance.»
Let’s say that you grow up in
rural West Virginia, buy and insure
a car there, and then go to
college in downtown Chicago. If
you update your voter registration
to your Chicago address,
will your car insurance company
KNOW that you don’t live in
West Virginia anymore and raise
your rates accordingly? Will you
be required to match your insurance
address to your voter registration
district?
According to the Brennan
Center for Justice, «Car insurance
should not be affected by
your voter registration or your
legal residency more generally.
Your car insurance rate is determined
by where your car is located
and where you drive it. If you
are a student who brings your car
with you to school, your insurance
company may change your
rate because you are driving in a
different environment, but voter
registration is irrelevant to this
determination.»
Bottom line: Your car does
not need to be insured at the
same address where you’re registered
to vote.
«I can’t register to vote because
I’ve been convicted of a
crime.»
Although you do lose your
voting rights as a convicted felon
in most states, those rights can be
restored once you are done serving
your sentence. If you were
registered before going to prison,
you will need to re-register once
you’re out, but in most states it is
irrelevant that you served time in
the interim.
Here is an easy to parse, stateby-state
chart of when in the
criminal justice process your voting
rights are returned to you.
In Maine and Vermont, you can
even register to vote throughout
your time in prison. In most
other states, you can register upon
release from prison or upon
completion of your parole and
probation periods.
If you’ve been convicted of a
misdemeanor, most states allow
you to keep your voting rights
with no interruption. However,
there are some states that may
remove those rights just during
the weeks or months that you
serve in prison: Colorado, Idaho,
Illinois,Indiana, Michigan, Missouri,
New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
If you’ve served time for a
misdemeanor since you last voted,
you may want to re-register
now, just to make sure.
Aaron Ghitelman is the Director
of Communications for
HeadCount, a nonpartisan organization
that works with musicians
to promote participate in
democracy. He says, «The best
feeling I have when I’m registering
people to vote is when someone
says, ‘Sorry, I can’t, I’ve been
convicted of a felony,’ and then
I pull up their state laws and get
to tell them, ‘Actually, you can.’
Every voter registration is meaningful,
but those are something
really special.»
Bottom line: In most states,
convicted felons can register to
vote once they’ve served their
sentences.
«I can’t register to vote because
I don’t have a permanent
address.»
Nonprofit VOTE says, «Persons
experiencing homelessness
can register and vote in all 50
states.» To register, you will need
to provide a place where you can
receive mail (e.g. an address for a
local relative, agency, or church),
and/or a description of where
you live (e.g. the name of a park
or street corner). The National
Coalition for the Homeless provides
a chart of which of these
two pieces of information you
need to provide, depending on
your state.
Bottom line: The right to vote
is not in any way contingent upon
having a home address.
«I can’t register to vote because
I’m living abroad.»
According to the U.S. Vote
Foundation, «U.S. citizens living
abroad have the right to vote as
absentee voters, provided they
are eligible to vote in their state.
If you are living outside of the
U.S. permanently, indefinitely,
or temporarily, your voting
rights stay with you, even if you
never voted when you lived in
the U.S.» And they add, «Many
states allow children who were
born overseas, but never lived
in the U.S., to use their U.S. par-