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qronika+178a

22 294 69 77;

22 294 69 77; qronikaqronika@gmail.com laris kursi laris kursi axali wlidan kvlav nino tabaRua yuradRebis centrSia. 2016 wlis de- kembris bolos erTi aSS dolaris Rirebulebam larTan mimarTebiT 2,9 niSnuls miaRwia _ es mos- alodnelic ki iyo, rogorc eqspertebi amboben, Tumca mosaxle- oba amas ar elodeboda da didi imediT egebeboda axali wlis dadgomas, galarebis programas da laris dastabilurebas. mimdinare wlis laris gamyarebasTan dakavSirebiT sazogadoebisa da eqspertebis molodinebi araerTgvarovania. 17 ianvars ZalaSi Sevida galarebis programa, romelSic cota xnis winaT cvlileba Seitanes da romlis Tanaxmadac, sesxebis larSi gadatana SeeZlebaT mxolod saqarTvelos moqalaqe fizikur pirebs, maT Soris: indmewarmeebs, romlebsac sasesxo davalianeba aSS dolarSi hqondaT rogorc 2015 wlis pirveli ianvris, ise 2016 wlis 28 noembris mdgomareobiT da mimdinare davalianeba eqnebaT galarebis dResac. subsidiiT ver isargebleben is pirebi, romelTa wliuri Semosavali 100 aTas larze meti iyo 2015, an 2016 wels. agreTve, is fizikuri pirebi, romelTa sesxis ZiriTadi Tanxis jamuri davalianeba 100 aTas dolars aRemateboda 2016 wlis 28 noembris mdgomareobiT. sesxebis galareba moxdeba galarebis dRes arsebuli oficialuri gacvliTi kursisTvis 20 TeTris gamoklebiT. aseTi sesxis subsidireba 40 aTasi aSS dolaris farglebSi moxdeba. mimdinare wlis pirveli ianvridan 100 aTas laramde sesxebi mxolod erovnuli valutiT gaicema, 2018 wlidan ki aRniSnuli cvlileba 200 aTas laramde sesxebsac Seexeba. wels unda amoqmeddes regulaciebi onlainsesxebze da dawesdes zRvruli maCvenebeli jarimaze, romelic SeiZleba msesxebels daekisros. „gazpromTan” molaparakebebic Sedga da faqti saxeze gvaqvs, igegmeba mTeli rigi im rekomendaciebis gaTvaliswineba, romlic msoflio bankma Cveni qveynis erovnul banks misca. yovelive amis fonze ki erovnuli bankis prezidenti koba gvenetaZe „kviris palitrisTvis” micemul interviuSi ambobs, rom gacvliTi kursis meryeobaze swori reagirebaa imis erT-erTi mizezi, rom saqarTveloSi, Zlieri sagareo Sokis zegavlenis miuxedavad, mainc aris ekonomikisa da dasaqmebis zrda: „es im fonze, rodesac Cvens mezobel qveynebSi ekonomika mcirdeba. yvela saerTaSoriso-safinanso institutis SefasebiT, regionis sxva qveynebTan SedarebiT, momdevno wlebSi saqarTvelos ekonomikuri zrdis ufro maRali prognozebi aqvs. kursis gaufasurebis procesSi xelovnur Carevaze uari aris yvelaze swori reaqcia sagareo Sokze, rac uzrunvelyofs Sokis gadatanas naklebi sazogadoebrivi danaxarjiT”, _ ambobs gvenetaZe, Tumca prognozebi namdvilad erTia da realuri suraTi _ meore. xelovnurad laris gamyareba rom ufro uaryofiT Sedegebs moitans, amaze aravin daobs, Tumca arcTu saxarbielo prognozs gvTavazoben eqspertebi, romlebmac „qronika+”-sTan saubrisas laris kursis prognozireba ufro winaswarmetyvelisTvis gankuTvnil Temad moixsenies da aRniSnes, rom msgavsi situacia manamde gagrZeldeba, sanam sistema gamWvirvale ar gaxdeba da bazarze moTxovna-miwodebis naxva SesaZlebeli ar iqneba. maS, ase! _ galarebis progra- ma, „gazpromTan” „miRweuli” SeTanxmeba, gasaTvaliswinebeli rekomendaciebi, ra mniSvnelo- van zegavlenas moaxdens mTeli rigi faqtorebi erovnul valutaze da ra iqneba misi maCvene- beli axali wlis TebervalSi? „qronika+” aRniSnuli kiTxvebiT ramdenime eqsperts mimarTavs. isini TavianTi gamocdilebiTa da saqmianobis specifikiT ero- vnul banksa da bankTaSoris sav- aluto bazars sakmaod kargad icnoben. vaxtang xomizuraSvili _ Tbilisis bankTaSorisi savaluto birJis generaluri direqtoris yofili pirveli moadg- ile: _ larebSi aTi aTasamde sesxis gacema, praqtikulad, bankebis valdebulebebis nawils, depozitebis nawils, struqturas naklebad Secvlis, radgan yvela cdilobs, rom danazogebi dolarSi iyos da ara _ larSi. aqedan gamomdinare, bankebi iZulebulebi arian, rom es laris depozitebi miiRon, romlis, daaxloebiT, 95% dolarSia gacemuli. rac Seexeba TviTon larSi gacemas, am SemTxvevaSi, TavisTavad, arsebobs garkveuli savaluto riski. ar vici erovnuli banki ras mouxerxebs am Ria savaluto pozicias? Tu e.b.-m amaze Tvali vaxtang xomizuraSvili daxuWa, maSin araferi Seicvleba, Tu Ria savaluto poziciis dacva moiTxova da, ase vTqvaT, savaluto riskebis dabalanseba, maSin bankebs dolaris depozitebis Semcireba da laris depozitebis saprocento ganakveTis aweva mouwevT. ar vici, ramdenad pozitiuri iqneba es yovelive, yovel SemTxvevaSi, sabanko sistemaSi sakmaod sarisko procesia. e.b.-m unda izrunos imaze, rom laris kursi raRac derefanSi moaqcios, magram es iqamde ver moxdeba, sanam gamWvirvale saangariSo sistema ar Semova sabir- Jo principebis gamoyenebiT, rogorc bankTaSoris savaWro bir- Jaze iyo, radgan dRes arsebuli meqanizmi ar iZleva obieqturi savaluto kursis Camoyalibebis saSualebas da xSir SemTxvevaSi kursi saerTod acdenilia savaluto bazarze arsebul mdgomareobas. rac Seexeba monetaruli politikis gamkacrebas, rac e.b.-s prezidentma daaanonsa, refinansirebis sesxebis Semcirebas gulisxmobs, rac gamoixateba saprocento ganakveTis aweviT, es e.b.-s aqamde unda gaekeTebina, savaluto fondis rekomendaciebi yovelTvis atarebda am mi- TiTebas, romlis Sesrulebac, rasakvirvelia, dadebiTi movlenaa (Tumca aqamde unda Sesrulebuliyo). rac Seexeba „gazpromTan” dadebul xelSekrulebas, aq ver vxedav did riskebs, Cveulebrivi tranzitia, aq mizanSewonilia, ubralod, aragrZelvadiani xelSekrulebis dadeba, Tumca, Sei- Zleba, garkveul aspeqtebSi koreqcia moxdes. ar vfiqrob, rom tarifTan Tu sxva TemebTan mimarTebiT garkveul gavlenas gamoiwvevs. _ rogoria Tqveni prognozi TebervalSi laris kursTan mi- marTebiT? _ martivad rom vTqvaT, warmoidgineT, raime WurWeli rom wyliT gadaavsoT, nebismieri mcire ryevac mis gadasxmas iwvevs, laris kursic asea. sanam safondo bazari aqtivizebuli ar iqneba da ganviTarebis tendenciebi ar daiwyeba, mudmivad ryevebia mosalodneli. Tu ar Seiqmna is sainvestico arxebi, romelic korporaciul, ekonomikis realur seqtorSi ar iqneba mimarTuli, manamde laris problema yovelTvis idgeba, nebismierma ramem SeiZleba laris ryeva gamoiwvios da maSin, roca 2 an 3 banks SeuZlia atrialos lari ise, rogorc unda, rasakvirvelia, Zalian miWirs prognozis gakeTeba. TviTon sistema, vaWrobis principi nebismier wams spekulaciuri moqmedebis saSualebas iZleva da, saerTod, SeiZleba, wamSi aagdon lari maRal niSnulamde. yovelTvis aseT mdgomareobaSi viqnebiT sistemis Secvlamde da am galarebis programam garkveuli efeqti SeiZleba iqonios, magram ekonomikis realur seqtorSi ucxouri investiciebis nakadis gareSe (ara pirdapiri, aramed fasiani qaRaldebis sferoSi) araferi gamova. manamde ki sul viqnebiT aseT mdomareoba- Si, roca nebismier dros SeiZleba Seicvalos situacia, gamyardes da mere ormagad gaufasurdes. sanam sistema ar Seicvleba, sul ase viqnebiT. irakli TedoraZe _ International council of Economics and Law-is damfuZnebeli: _ galarebis programis dasruleba da Tebervlis laris kursi ase male ver gamoiwvevs Sedegs, es grZelvadiani perspeqtivaa, TviTon politika, roca larSi unda gaices sesxebi da uZravi qoneba grZelvadian perspeqtivas emsaxureba, romelic ekonomikaSi laris masas gamoaCens, magram, rom vTqvaT, programis dawyebidan or kviraSi raime seriozul Sedegebs mivadgebiT, arasworia da msgavsi molodini sazogadoebaSi ar unda gaCndes. mTavrobis midgoma amasTan dakavSirebiT Zalian kargia. nebismieri qyveyana, pirvel rigSi, pativs scems Tavis erovnul valutas, CvenTan ar momxdara dolaris 100%-iani Canacvleba, aq mxolod laris gamoyeneba gaxda savaldebulo, magram es ar aris 22 N1 (178) 17.01-23.01.2017 w.

294 69 77; qronikaqronika@gmail.com TebervalSi panacea da mxolod am programaze ar unda SeCerdes mTavroba kmayofili ar unda dajdes. maT unda gamoasworon laris sava- Wro balansi, infrastruqturuli proeqtebi, aq sajaro seqtorebSi aucileblad unda moxdes optimizacia da sxva bevri proeqti unda ganxorcieldes, igive sawarmoo rezervebi unda Seiqmnas da ekonomikam unda SeZlos, rom saqarTvelo garkveuli produqtebis eqsportiori qveyana gaxdes. rac Seexeba „gazpromTan” molaparakebas, vityvi, rom saqarTvelo, romlic evropaSi asocirebas eswrafvis, veraviTar SemTxvevaSi ver SeukveTda somxeTs tranzits da amaze yvela unda SevTanxmdeT, radgan am tranzitze uaris Tqma ukan gadadgmuli nabiji iqneboda evropisken swrafvisas, amitom Cven mogviwia davTanxmebuliyaviT ruseTis muxanaTur gegmas, igi karga xnis win gaTvala ruseTma da xedvebi da strategia SeimuSava. mTavrobis erTaderTi danaSauli isaa, rom adre ar daiwyes alternatiuli resursebis moZieba, magram dRevandeli Sedegebi maqsimaluri SesaZleblobidan saukeTeso gamovida, radgan ruseTi, romelic agresoria da arasamarTliani wesebiT moqmedebs, masTan samarTliani normebiT da diplomatiuri eTikiT saubari gamoricxulia, Tu ar moundeba, ar daiwyebs saubars. gamomdinare aqedan, dRevndeli miRweuli Sedegi, ra Tqma unda, kargia, plus es aris 2018 wlamde da manamde mTavrobas vada aqvs, rom misi poziciebi gaamyaros. SeiZleba, or weliwadSi sxva suraTi daidos, Torem Tu ase gavagrZeleT da bunebrivi airis gareSe davrCiT, 2 weliwadSi, ra Tqma unda, nebismier dros SeuZliaT fasis gazrda. _ isev laris kurss davu- brundeT, Tqveni azriT, e.b.-is moqmedebebi ramdenad uwyobs xels erovnuli valutis gam- yarebas? _ me rogorc vici, e.b. aucileblad gamoiyenebs msoflio bankisa da savaluto fondis rekomendaciebs da esec aucileblad Seuwyobs xels laris gamyarebas da Tu igi saerTaSoriso organizaciebis rCevebs qarTul interesebs daumatebs, defolti, romelic SeiZleboda rom gvqonoda, aRar iqneba. moklevadian periodSi, vfiqrob, rom larma mcirediT, magram gamyareba unda gvaCvenos, Tumca es ar iqneba Zireuli gamyareba, amas unda velodoT turistuli sezonis gaxsnisas, roca investiciebi wamova da Sei- Zleba, infrastruqturuli proeqtebi daiwyos, Torem TebervalSi es galareba aucileblad gamoiRebs Sedegs, Sesa- Zloa iseTs ara, rogoric gvinda da rac gvinda, magram dadebiTi dinamika unda SevniSnoT. aucileblad optimisturad unda ganvewyoT, radgan pesimizm- Si ar Rirs cxovreba. gaufasurebis piki axal wlamde iyo, roca xalxi yvelafers yidulobda, es ramdenime TviT adre vivaraude, magram dRes ukve aRar gvaqvs gangrZobiTi xarjvis periodi, amas plus galareba, plus gaTvaliswinebuli rCevebi (Tu gaiTvaliswinebs e.b.), aman stabiluri winsvla, marTalia neli nabijebiT, magram mainc unda gvaCvenos. soso arCvaZe _ ekonomikis eqsperti: _ galarebis programa, garkveulwilad, gazrdis lariT ganxorcielebuli operaciebis soso arCvaZe N1 (178) 17.01-23.01.2017 w. riskis safasurs da aman SeiZleba, garkveulwilad, gazardos TiToeuli tranzaqciis Rirebuleba, an, kidev, e. w. usafrTxoebis baliSebi, ra SeRavaTic uZravi qonebis realizatorebTan da SuamavlebTan ukve dafiqsirda. Tqven iZulebuli iqnebiT, rom fasebi larebSi daafiqsiroT, roca ar xarT garantirebuli, rom es kursi, met-naklebad, stabiluri iqneba. Tqven sarealizacio fasad unda awarmooT fasdanamati, usafrTxoebis baliSi, rom Tqveni biznesi da Semosavali riskebisgan daicvaT. es, ra Tqma unda, gavlenas moaxdens fasebis matebaze, Tumca ramdenad, amas dro gviCvenebs. axla larze aTas rames amboben, amitom safuZveli ar maqvs, rom rameSi eWvi Sevitano, magram is giTxariT, rac SeiZleba momavalSic moxdes. es Cveulebrivi biznes sifrTxilis gamoxatulebaa, xolo is, rom qarTuli sabanko seqtoris didi nawili ucxouri kapitalis xelSia da adgilobrivi aqtivebis wili gacemul sesxebsa da kreditebSi sakmaod mokrZalebulia, es ufro gagr- Zeldeba (iyo dro, roca 22 wlis winaT saqarTveloSi 229 banki gvqonda da dadgeba dro, roca saqarTveloSi 8-9 banki iqneba). amisken midis brZola. fexburTis irakli TedoraZe CempionatSi 32 gundi TamaSobs finalSi ki 2 gadis. igive principia aqac. „gazpromTan” miRweul SeTanxmebas ekonomikaze erTbaSad ar eqneba iseTi mkveTri revoluciuri Sedegebi, rom raRac gakeTdeba da xvalidan ukve revoluciuri cvlilebebi moxdeba. iseTi meqanizmi unda SevimuSavoT, romelic gacilebiT met Semosavals miscems saqarTvelos, vidre am erTi SemTxveviT. specialistebi axla iTvlian im zarals, rac saqarTvelom ganicada. ra Tqma unda, samwuxaroa, rom „gazpromze” Cveni zemoqmedebis berketebi gacilebiT sustia, vidre piriqiT. imis Tqma, rom erovnuli interesebi gaiyida gadaWarbebulia da absurdadac mimaCnia, Tumca racionaluri moqmedebebi unda viswavloT ara mxolod bunebrivi airis gamoyenebis, aramed samewarmeo kulturis, biznesis principebis dalagebis mxriv. ufro kompetentur da kvalificiur kadrebs unda mieces gasaqani nebismieri Tanamdebobis dakavebisas, TanamSromelma Tavis samuSao adgilze qveynis interesebis dacva unda SeZlos. moispos is SemTxveva, roca naTesauri, an axlobluri niSniT antipatriotul saqmianobas veweviT. _ TebervalSi laris kursis mkveTr ryevas ar elodebiT? _ TebervalSi mainc apokalipsur Sedegebs ar velodebi, garkveuli pozitiuri niSnebi aris da savaluto fondmac, sxvaTa Soris, dadebiTi Sefaseba dado, romelic or cifrTan miaxloebuli ar aris, magram sxvebis fonze mainc kargia. ukan gadamsrolel mkveTr ryevas namdvilad ar velodebi. zogierTi bankiris SexedulebiT ki TebervalSi bankebis mdgomareoba mkveTrad uaryofiTisken Seicvleba, Tumca es mosaxleobaze ara da maT saqmianobaze SeiZleba aisaxos. fragmenti erovnuli bankis prezidentis interviudan (romelic zemoT vaxsene), pasuxi kiTxvaze, Tu rodis dastabil- urdeba lari? „mcuravi gacvliTi kursis pirobebSi SeuZlebelia kursis moklevadiani periodis cvlilebis prognozireba. amave dros, rogoric unda iyos molodinebiT gamowveuli kursis moklevadiani meryeoba, saSualo da grZelvadian periodSi is yovelTvis ubrundeba grZelvadian, fundamenturi ekonomikuri faqtorebiT ganpirobebul trends, radgan SeuZlebelia fundamenturi faqtorebidan mniSvnelovnad gadaxrili kursis didxans SenarCuneba. SegviZlia vTqvaT, rom kursis moklevadiani meryeoba xels uwyobs kursis grZelvadian stabilurobas. grZelvadian periodSi gacvliTi kursis dinamika damokidebulia, erTi mxriv, qveyanaSi produqtiulobis zrdis tempze da, meore mxriv, inflaciis doneze. miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTveloSi ekonomikuri zrdis tempi bolo wlebSi Semcirda, is mainc ufro maRalia, vidre Cvens ZiriTad savaWro partnior qveynebSi”, _ ambobs gvenetaZe. isRa dagvrCenia, Tebervals davelodoT da vnaxoT, rogori iqneba igi mosaxleobisa da araprofiluri aqtivebis mflobeli bankebisTvis? 23