FREMTIDIG KINESISK DOMINANS? - Forsvarsakademiet

ABSTRACT
This thesis bridges the gap between scepticism and positivism regarding China. Without
lending credit to those scholars who depict China as a future U.S. contender, the thesis
shows that China puts her national powers to use in support of economic expansion,
sometimes taking risks, but stopping short of outright conflict.
Using the realist theory of Morgenthau as analytical framework, the thesis examines
whether China pursues a policy of status quo or expansionism vis-à-vis Japan, and how
the enhancement of Chinese prestige is utilized to serve these possible ends. The Sino-
Japanese conflict over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea is used as a case study.
The thesis concludes that China finds herself constrained by Japan backed by U.S. preponderance,
leaving open the maintenance of status quo as the most viable strategy for
China to pursue. Simultaneously China has embarked on a strategy of economic imperialism,
albeit in an incremental fashion. China does so by a seemingly deliberate exploitation
of hydrocarbons and biological resources in the contested area. Using an effective balance
of diplomacy and occasional flexing of military muscles, China appears to be extracting
whatever concessions it can obtain from Japan, while reiterating her own claim for sovereignty.
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