hu wissen 3 (pdf) - Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

According to predictions, the global population will rise from its
present total of almost seven billion to nine billion by 2050, while
at the same time the amount of arable land will decrease. Does
that mean that more people will go hungry?
We need to look for pragmatic solutions and make the most of
technological progress, otherwise famine is certain to increase in
the future. That includes efficient types of land resource management,
water-saving irrigation practices and improved animal
husbandry. It is only possible to expand arable land use to a limited
extent. Over the past few decades, this expansion has mainly
taken place in transition regions − for example, the dry forest and
xeric shrublands of the South American Chaco, where savannah
areas have been cultivated for agriculture. This has been possible
partly due to the increased rainfall these regions have experienced
in recent decades – as a consequence of global climate change.
It’s nice to hear about a positive effect of climate change for once.
If we look at it in terms of the increase in agricultural yields and
the growing world population which needs to be fed, then yes, it’s
positive. But we mustn’t lose sight of the fact that many areas that
been largely untouched by humankind for centuries have suddenly
been overrun by the agricultural sector and are being intensively
farmed with monoculture crops. This leads to changes in the
local climate, biodiversity and, above all, the displacement of indigenous
peoples. Fertilisers and pesticides are being used too,
with all their positive and negative consequences. Mechanisation
can lead to soil erosion and destruction. It’s important always to
look at both sides of the coin. There’s no question that the Earth is
already being over-exploited. How we can succeed in shaping a
more sustainable future – that is what FutureLand is all about.
As we all know, wealth is distributed very unevenly across the globe.
How will the balance between rich and poor regions develop in
the future?
An important focus at the graduate school is institutional research.
Even today, everything could already be working much
better if weak or badly conceived institutions controlled by private
or public players weren’t wasting so many valuable opportunities.
All too oen, the »lever« with which socially desirable changes can
be implemented at political level is missing. An extreme example
Es gibt zurzeit keine
Institution in der Welt, die
Verteilungsprobleme
wirkungsvoll angehen kann
At present, there is no institution
in the world that can effectively
tackle distribution problems
of this is »land grabbing«. It is already common practice for heavily
populated states to buy or rent agricultural land in other regions,
such as Africa or South-East Asia, to meet the needs of their
own populations. This brings up the question, among others, as
to how far land use by foreign investors – oen referred to as
»leakage« or »teleconnection« − is contributing to the growing humanitarian
catastrophe in the Horn of Africa. At present, there is
no institution in the world that can effectively tackle distribution
problems.
All over the world people are moving from rural areas to cities –
will that have a negative impact on the climate and land use?
Over half of the world population currently lives in cities, and
projections show that this could increase to 70 or even 80 percent
by 2050. Cities are mainly seen as »problem zones« – due, for example,
to the slums in megacities – but they can also be a »key to
happiness« with regard to resource-efficient land use and climate
friendly technologies. For example, a more intelligent use of space
could lead to a lower per capita consumption of resources. In cities
people could not only require less space, but also less water
and less energy than in rural areas. Transport routes are also
shorter in cities. In a nutshell: cities could be part of the solution
when it comes to optimising the resource consumption of 10 billion
people.
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